Germany and Italy meet in the second leg of their UEFA Nations League (UNL) quarter-final clash at the Signal Iduna Park on Sunday night, just three days after Germany won 2-1 in the reverse fixture.
In a game that saw two of our three recommended bets come through, Germany came from behind to win thanks to second-half goals from Tim Kleindienst and Leon Goretzka, after Sandro Tonali had given Italy an early lead.
It extended Germany's unbeaten H2H run to seven matches as a result, while they also remain undefeated in all competitions since they lost to eventual winners Spain 2-1 in extra-time of the quarter-final stage of the 2024 UEFA European Championships.
In contrast, Italy have now suffered consecutive defeats after losing 3-1 at home to France in their previous competitive outing in November.
Travelling to Germany, it now seems a tall order for the Italians to turn the tie around, especially with a one-goal deficit.
How the bookies view it: Germany odds-on favourites
Unsurprisingly given their triumph in the first leg and their superior H2H record of late, Germany are 4/6 odds-on favourites with BoyleSports to win the game in normal time. A draw is priced at 13/5 with the same bookmaker, while an Italy victory is priced at 10/3.
Recent head-to-head: Germany gain advantage
As mentioned, Germany triumphed 2-1 on Thursday night in the first leg, showing great character to come from behind to win the match away from home. With that advantage, it certainly bodes well for them to progress to the semi-final, where they will face either Denmark or Portugal.
Players to watch: Tim in-Kleind to score again
Kleindienst now boasts three goals in as many internationals, and is 15/8 with BoyleSports to score anytime once more against Italy.
Alessandro Buongiorno will likely start in place of the injured Riccardo Calafiori, and he will have a tough task on his hands to keep Kleindienst quiet.
Predicted lineups
Kleindienst may have earned himself a start after scoring from the bench last time out, but there will likely not be too many changes from Thursday's line-up.
Calafiori limped off with a suspected knee injury on Thursday, and will likely play no part in Sunday's clash.
Germany: Baumann, Kimmich, Rudiger, Schlotterbeck, Mittelstadt, Goretzka, Gross, Sane, Musiala, Adeyemi, Kleindienst.
Italy: Donnarumma, Di Lorenzo, Bastoni, Buongiorno, Bellanova, Barella, Ricci, Tonali, Udogie, Raspadori, Kean.
Anything else catch the eye?
Germany are favourites to win after 90 minutes, and as Italy get more desperate, the game will become more stretched. The handicap market could therefore be one to explore, with Germany to win with a -1 handicap priced at 19/10 with BoyleSports.
After the last result, both teams have now scored in eight of the previous nine meetings. Backing Both Teams To Score (BTTS) again at 8/11 with BoyleSports seems like the safest bet we can recommend.
This UEFA Nations League match between Germany and Italy will be played on and kick off at 19:45. Check below for our tipsters best Germany vs Italy prediction. You may also visit our dedicated betting previews section for the most up to date previews.
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