Georgia return to Dinamo Arena on Sunday looking to bounce back from a frustrating 3-2 home defeat to Turkey in their opening World Cup qualifier. The score line was harsh on Willy Sagnol’s side, who actually edged the underlying numbers, winning the xG battle 1.13 to 0.73.
They created two big chances, hit 15 shots overall, and had more possession, but defensive errors proved costly. That setback followed an encouraging year in which they reached the last 16 of Euro 2024 and secured promotion to Nations League B after dismantling Armenia 9-1 on aggregate in March’s playoff.
Bulgaria also began their campaign with defeat, falling 3-0 at home to Spain. The gulf in quality was obvious, with Spain winning the xG 3.51 to 0.10, recording 12 shots on target to none and creating six big chances to Bulgaria’s zero. It extended Ilian Iliev’s poor competitive record, with the Lions now having just two wins from their last 15 competitive outings. Their attack remains blunt, having failed to score in three of their last four fixtures, while defensively they continue to be exposed by better-organised sides.
Sunday’s clash looks like a key opportunity for Georgia to get their campaign up and running. They have lost only three times in their last 20 home matches, scoring 48 goals in that run, and with Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Georges Mikautadze leading the line they have the individual quality to trouble any opponent.
Bulgaria’s travel record offers little encouragement, with just four wins from their last 20 away matches and nine blanks in that sequence. Unless they produce a huge improvement, it is difficult to see them leaving Tbilisi with anything.
How the bookies view it: Hosts favourites
Georgia are priced at 4/7 (implied probability 63.6%) to take all three points, while the draw is 3/1 (25%) and Bulgaria are outsiders at 5/1 (16.7%). In the goals markets, over 2.5 goals is available at 7/15 (68.2%), suggesting the bookies expect a relatively open contest, while both teams to score is priced at 68/67 (49.6%), making it close to a coin flip on whether Bulgaria manage to find the net.
Head to Head: Georgia hold the advantage
Georgia and Belarus have faced each other three times, with Georgia winning twice and Belarus once. Both of Georgia’s victories came at home in Tbilisi, each by a 1-0 score line, while Belarus claimed their only success with a 2-0 win in Minsk during World Cup qualifying in 2012. Across the three meetings, only four goals have been scored in total, highlighting a consistently low-scoring pattern whenever the two nations meet.
Players to watch: Kvaratskhelia the main threat
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia looks an appealing anytime scorer option for Georgia’s qualifier against Bulgaria. The Napoli winger is his country’s talisman and penalty taker, and his recent international numbers underline just how central he is to their attacking play. Across his last five competitive appearances, Kvaratskhelia has produced 24 shots which is an average of 4.8 per game and has found the net twice while also supplying an assist.
He scored in Thursday’s 3-2 defeat to Turkey, hitting the target with two of his four attempts, and was on the scoresheet in March’s 6-1 demolition of Armenia when he also registered an assist. Even when Georgia struggle, Kvaratskhelia creates chances for himself, with at least three efforts in every recent outing. Against a Bulgaria side who have conceded heavily and lack defensive cohesion, his high shot volume and set-piece duties make him a strong anytime scorer candidate.
Predicted line-ups
Georgia (4-2-3-1): Mamardashvili; Azarovi, Kashia, Goglichidze, Lochoshvili; Kocharashvili, Mekvabishvili; Lominadze, Kiteishvili, Kvaratskhelia; Mikautadze
Belarus (5-4-1): Lapoukhov; Pigas, Martynovich, Parkhomenko, Zabelin, Pechenin; Gromyko, Yablonski, Ebong; Korzun; Melnichenko
Anything else catch the eye?
Georgia to win and under 4.5 goals looks a strong angle following the opening round of qualifiers.
Despite losing 3-2 at home to Turkey, Georgia were unfortunate not to take at least a point. They generated the better opportunities, winning the xG battle 1.13 to 0.73, and carved out two big chances while restricting Turkey to just one. That efficiency gap cost them, but the underlying numbers highlight their ability to create consistently in Tbilisi. Across their last 20 home games, Georgia have scored 48 goals while conceding only 20, and 15 of those fixtures finished under 4.5.
Bulgaria’s problems are more severe. They were swept aside 3-0 at home by Spain, and the metrics painted an even bleaker picture: xG 3.51 to 0.10, shots on target 12 to 0, and big chances 6 to 0. That loss underlined long-standing issues in both penalty areas. In their last 15 competitive games they have scored just ten times, failing to create more than one big chance in 12 of those outings. Away from home, they have drawn blanks in eight of their last 20 matches, and even when they concede heavily the totals rarely push beyond four goals.
Shot data is also instructive. Georgia average over 13 attempts per match in competitive action and managed 15 against Turkey. Bulgaria, meanwhile, typically allow double figures in shots while producing fewer than seven themselves. That imbalance strongly suggests Georgia will control territory and possession, and while a comfortable home win is the expectation, the lack of Bulgarian firepower points to a contained score line.
The most reliable bet is Georgia to win with under 4.5 total goals.
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