The Champions League league phase continues on Wednesday night as Galatasaray host Liverpool at Rams Park in Istanbul, a fixture that brings together two clubs with proud European traditions but differing fortunes in recent weeks.
Galatasaray’s domestic dominance has been emphatic. They top the Super Lig table with seven wins from seven, scoring 19 goals and conceding only two. Underlying numbers support their run: an xPTS of 16.3 places them clear at the top, while they have allowed just 6.2 xGA in those games. However, Europe tells a less positive story. The 5-1 defeat in Frankfurt on Matchday one stretched their winless streak in UEFA competition to seven matches. Defensive resilience in Turkey has yet to translate onto the continental stage.
Victor Osimhen remains their key figure. The striker has nine goals in the Champions League proper and needs just one more to become Nigeria’s all-time leading scorer in the competition. Ilkay Gundogan, Sara Gabriel with Mauro Icardi and Leroy Sane ahead will be crucial against a Liverpool back line that has shown vulnerability this season.
Liverpool come into this game after a 2-1 defeat at Crystal Palace, a result that leaves them with 15 points from nine Premier League fixtures. The data is stark: an xPTS of only 8.5 ranks them seventh, underlining that their struggles are not just bad luck. Defensively they have conceded in six of their last seven matches, while keeping just two clean sheets all season.
In attack, the Reds remain a threat. Mohamed Salah is chasing history, two goals away from becoming the first African player to reach 50 Champions League goals, having scored 19 in his last 21 appearances in this phase. Liverpool’s record in Turkey is poor, with one win in six trips, but their group-stage pedigree is strong. The atmosphere promises to be intense, and both sides need points after contrasting Matchday One results.
How the bookies view it: Visitors favourite
Liverpool are favourites at 13/20 to win in Istanbul, which implies a 60.6% chance of victory, while Galatasaray are 15/4 outsiders (21.1%) and the draw is priced at 18/5 (21.7%). The market also points strongly toward goals, with Over 2.5 at 5/11 (68.8% implied) and Both Teams to Score at 1/2 (66.7%).
Those odds reflect Galatasaray’s strong attacking output at home and their defensive struggles in Europe, alongside Liverpool’s mix of firepower and vulnerability, having conceded in six of their last seven matches. With both sides carrying plenty of threat but far from watertight at the back, the numbers and probabilities align with the expectation of goals and action at Rams Park.
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Head to Head: Honours even
Galatasaray and Liverpool have met twice in European competition, during the 2006/07 Champions League group stage. Liverpool won 3-2 at Anfield in September 2006, while Galatasaray claimed a 3-2 victory in the return game in Istanbul that December. The head-to-head record therefore stands level at one win each, with both teams scoring five goals across the two matches.
Players to watch: Salah to score
Mohamed Salah to score or assist, Liverpool to find the net, and Salah to register at least one shot on target shapes up as a strong bet in Istanbul. The Egyptian has returned in six of his eight Liverpool matches this season, recording four goals and three assists in 808 minutes. He has managed 15 shots with eight on target, hitting the target in 75% of games. In the Champions League, he remains Liverpool’s biggest weapon.
Last year he delivered seven goal contributions in nine outings, backed by an impressive combined xG + xAG of 8.4, while on Matchday One this season he produced six shots, three on target, one goal and one assist against Atletico. Liverpool have scored in every competitive match this season and come into this tie with 17 goals from nine games, while Salah remains on penalty duty. With his output, consistency and shot reliability, the bet offers multiple routes to landing.
Predicted line-up
Galatasaray (4-2-3-1): Cakir, Singo, Sanchez, Bardakci, Elmali, Torreira, Sara, Sallai, Sane, Yilmaz, Icardi
Liverpool (4-2-3-1): Alisson, Bradley, Konate, van Dijk, Kerkez, Gravenberch, Mac Allister, Salah, Szoboszlai, Wirtz, Isak
Anything else catch the eye?
This contest is shaped by both teams’ attacking intent and defensive flaws, making goals and cards a compelling betting angle.
Galatasaray’s matches this season have been lively. They are averaging 14.3 shots per game in the Super Lig, with 5.6 on target. At Frankfurt on Matchday One, they still registered 12 attempts despite losing heavily. Their defensive frailty was exposed, conceding five goals from 3.0 xG against, underlining why they struggle to contain elite opposition. Both teams have scored in six of their last eight fixtures in all competitions.
Liverpool are equally open. They have produced 18.9 xG in nine league games this season but conceded 16.8 xGA, ranking them only mid-table for expected defensive numbers. They average 15.8 shots per game and 6.1 on target, while allowing over 11 shots per match. Six of their last seven fixtures have seen both teams to score land, and their 3-2 win over Atletico on Matchday 1 highlighted both their attacking depth and defensive looseness.
Card markets look just as strong. Galatasaray have collected at least two cards in five of their last six league games and are averaging 2.1 domestically. Liverpool’s opponents average 2.4 cards per game in the Premier League, a reflection of how hard teams have to work to disrupt their rhythm. The Reds themselves are not immune, averaging 1.9 cards across domestic and European competition this season.
Over two match cards is backed further by Champions League officiating trends. With two high-intensity sides and the stakes high after contrasting Matchday 1 results, both teams are likely to leave something in tackles.
The blend of Galatasaray’s attacking efficiency, Liverpool’s defensive lapses, and both sides’ discipline records make Over 2.5 Goals, Both Teams to Receive a Card, and Over 2 Total Match Cards the standout betting combination.
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