Flamengo and Fluminense meet in a fierce Brasileirao clash at the Maracana on Sunday. This is one of Brazil’s most historic derbies, and it arrives at a moment when both sides have plenty to prove. Flamengo come into the game sitting top of the table with 27 points from 12 matches. Their form has been excellent, particularly at home, and they boast the league’s best defensive record with just four goals conceded. They also lead the league on xPTS, which shows their performances are matching results. With 26 goals scored from an xG of just under 20, they have combined efficiency in attack with solidity at the back.
Fluminense, meanwhile, sit seventh, having collected 20 points from 11 games. They have been resilient, winning six and drawing two, but they rank only ninth on xPTS, which suggests they have been slightly overperforming compared to the quality of their play. They have scored 15 and conceded 12, which reflects a more modest profile than their rivals.
Both clubs come off campaigns in the Club Championship. Flamengo topped a group that included Chelsea and beat them 3-1 before losing to Bayern Munich. Fluminense finished second in their group and battled through two knockout rounds before falling to Chelsea in the semi-final. That run showed their grit but also highlighted their limitations against elite opposition.
With Flamengo’s dominance in the league and Fluminense’s defensive qualities, this should be another tight but intense chapter in the Fla-Flu rivalry.
How the bookies view it: Hosts favourites
Flamengo are priced at 4/6, which implies around a 60% chance of winning, making them clear favourites. The draw is 14/5, suggesting about a 26% chance, while Fluminense are 9/2, implying roughly an 18% chance of an upset. In the goals markets, over 2.5 goals is offered at 6/5, which equates to about a 45% chance of at least three goals in the match. Both teams to score is priced at 57/50, indicating around a 47% chance that both sides find the net. These odds reflect Flamengo’s strong form and status but also leave room for a competitive contest.
Head to Head: Closely contested
The head-to-head record between Flamengo and Fluminense over their last 24 meetings is closely contested, with Flamengo winning 11 times, Fluminense winning 8, and 5 ending in draws. These matches have often been tight, but there have also been some high-scoring encounters. Nine of the 24 games saw at least 3 goals, while both teams scored in 10 of them, showing that this fixture can produce open, attacking football despite its intensity.
Notable results include Flamengo’s 3-0 win in October 2018, a dramatic 3-3 draw in November 2017, and Fluminense’s 3-1 victory in October 2021. Even in lower-scoring contests, both sides have regularly created chances, and the history between them reflects a rivalry where momentum can swing either way and goals are never far away.
Players to watch: Ortiz a threat from set pieces
Leo Ortiz is a solid bet to register at least one shot thanks to his role in Flamengo’s set pieces and his willingness to push forward when opportunities arise. He has taken eight shots this season, with six of them coming from his head and three hitting the target, showing how effective he is in aerial duels. He has also had at least one shot in six of his last seven games, underlining his consistency as an attacking threat.
In his 2025 Serie A and Libertadores appearances, he has averaged just under one shot every other game, with most of these coming from corners or free kicks. Odds are not yet available for a header on target but it should be a good bet.
Predicted line-ups
Flamengo (4-3-3): Rossi; Varela Ortiz Danilo Sandro; Jorginho Gerson Everton; Araujo Arrascaeta Henrique
Fluminense (4-2-3-1): Fabio; Silva Nino Marcelo Alexsander; Martinelli Lima; Arias Ganso Serna; Cano
Anything else catch the eye?
Flamengo to win and over 1.5 goals looks like a strong play here. Flamengo have scored two or more goals in eight of their twelve league matches this season, and their attacking play at home has been relentless. They average over 2.1 goals per game in the league and have scored at least twice in five of their seven home matches.
On top of that, Fla-Flu derbies tend to produce goals. In their last ten meetings, seven games finished with at least two goals scored, and Flamengo came out on top in four of those.
Fluminense, for their part, have conceded in four of their six away matches this season and shipped two or more in half of those. Their xGA away from home is higher than their overall average, and they tend to allow better chances when pressed.
Given Flamengo’s attacking depth and their tendency to dominate at the Maracanã, it is reasonable to expect them to score at least twice again. Their home crowd and confidence make them favourites, and with Fluminense likely to contribute or at least be stretched chasing the game, this bet offers solid value.
GambleAware