Finland and Switzerland meet in a decisive UEFA Women’s Euro 2025 group-stage clash on Thursday evening at Stade de Geneve in Geneva. With Switzerland holding the advantage on goal difference, Finland know only a win will keep their hopes alive.
Finland opened their campaign with a fortunate 1-0 win over Iceland despite being outplayed for long spells and playing against ten for over half an hour. They failed to create any big chances in that match and conceded two, relying on defensive resolve to hang on. Against Norway, Finland put in a more promising display but still fell short, losing 2-1 despite edging the shot count and xG. They created more than in their opener and showed better attacking intent but continued to look vulnerable when pressed.
Switzerland started with a hard-fought 2-0 win over Iceland, controlling the decisive moments but not dominating xG. Against Norway, they lost 2-1 but carried more attacking threat than the result suggests, recording more shots and more on target despite conceding higher-quality chances. That defeat put them level on points with Finland but ahead on goal difference, meaning a draw here is likely enough for them to advance.
Both sides have shown defensive weaknesses yet flashes of attacking potential, particularly Switzerland, who sit higher in shots on target and big chances created than Finland. With Finland needing to chase the game and Switzerland looking to counter, the stage is set for an open and tense contest in Geneva.
How the bookies view it: Lack of goals and hard fought game
Finland are priced at 5/2 to win, implying about a 28.6% chance of winning. Switzerland are 15/13, suggesting a 46.5% chance of winning the tie. The draw is also 5/2.
Over 2.5 goals at 1/1 implies a 50% chance of three or more goals whilst both teams to score at 5/6 which implies about a 54.5% chance that both find the net.
Head to Head: Honours even
The head-to-head between Finland and Switzerland has been relatively even over the past decade, with neither side able to completely dominate the other. In their five meetings since 2012, Switzerland have won twice, Finland have won once, and there have been two draws. Goals have been fairly evenly shared too, with Switzerland scoring 10 and Finland seven over those games.
These matches have tended to be competitive and open. Both teams have found ways to create and score, with about half of the fixtures seeing the total goals line cleared. Finland have generally looked slightly more disciplined defensively, while Switzerland have carried a bit more attacking threat and taken more risks going forward.
Players to watch: Kosola to fire for Finland
Finland are in a must-win situation, which means they will have to attack more aggressively than in their first two matches. Katariina Kosola has already shown she is central to that attacking effort, scoring Finland’s only goal of the tournament so far. She has attempted eight shots across the two games, hitting at least two in each, and put three of those on target, again with at least one in each match.
With Finland likely pushing forward from the start, Kosola should see similar or even increased volume. Her consistency in getting shots away, combined with her confidence from already scoring in the group, makes backing her for 2+ shots and 1+ on target look very reasonable, especially if the odds remain attractive relative to her output so far.
Given her role in a team that must attack, and the defensive vulnerabilities Switzerland have shown, this prop bet aligns with both the game state and the player’s form.
Predicted line-ups
Finland (4-3-3): Korpela; Koivisto, Oling, Westerlund, Alanen; Ahtinen, Summanen, Kemppi; Kosola, Rantala, Heroum
Switzerland (4-3-3): Herzog; Maritz, Calligaris, Buhler, Aigbogun; Walti, Xhemaili, Sow; Reuteler, Crnogorcevic, Schertenleib
Anything else catch the eye?
This match shapes up well for both teams to find the net given the way they have approached their group games so far. Both sides have shown a willingness to attack and a tendency to leave gaps defensively, which suits a game state where Finland must push for the win.
Finland’s need to score should lead them to commit numbers forward earlier than usual, which increases their chances of creating opportunities but also makes them more exposed to the kind of swift counters Switzerland have been effective at executing. Finland have taken more than ten shots in both games so far and generated enough volume to threaten, particularly when the game becomes stretched.
Switzerland have the quality to punish defensive mistakes and have proven capable of turning possession into dangerous situations. Their attacking players have already shown they can create and convert good chances when given space, and Finland’s high line or desperate pressing could offer them exactly that.
In matches where neither side can afford to sit deep for ninety minutes, and with both carrying a mix of attacking intent and defensive lapses, backing
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