Everton host West Ham United at the Hill Dickinson Stadium on Monday evening in the Premier League. Both sides come in with contrasting defensive profiles, and the game could prove telling for their respective seasons.
David Moyes’ return has given Everton stability. His Premier League home record since coming back stands at W4-D6-L2. Everton have seven points from their first five matches, which aligns with their xPTS figure of 6.4.
Defensively they have looked organised, keeping two clean sheets in their last four and limiting sides to under one xG per game in that run. Jarrad Branthwaite is edging back to fitness, which would bolster an already solid back line.
West Ham, meanwhile, are struggling to contain opponents. In their last four fixtures they have allowed 2.35 xGA per game, the worst figure in the league over that period. They have conceded nine big chances in those matches, showing just how often they are being carved open. With Tomas Soucek suspended, Graham Potter has fewer midfield options as he tries to correct the defensive imbalance.
Confidence is shaky after four defeats in five. West Ham have already conceded 13 goals, with individual errors and structural weaknesses undermining them despite flashes of quality in attack.
Everton have looked steady by comparison, especially at Goodison where Moyes’ influence is most visible. Monday night presents the chance to reinforce their progress against a West Ham team that continues to leak goals.
How the bookies view it: Everton favourites
Everton are 5/6 (54.6%) to win at Goodison Park on Monday night, with the draw 11/4 (26.7%) and West Ham 19/5 (20.8%) outsiders.
Goals are expected to be tight, with over 2.5 goals at 1/1 (50.0%) and both teams to score at 10/11 (52.4%).
Head to Head: Hammers on top
Everton have won just three of the last 10 meetings with West Ham. At Goodison Park, they have only managed one win in the last five against the Hammers, who claimed a 3-1 victory there in March 2024.
Four of the last five games between the sides at this venue have seen under 2.5 goals, highlighting the cagey nature of this fixture.
Players to watch: Full backs and fouls
The angle here is about the matchups more than raw foul numbers. Kyle Walker-Peters has not actually committed a foul yet this season, but that record will be tested heavily against Jack Grealish. The Everton winger has drawn 17 fouls in five matches, the highest in the league, and has been fouled at least once in every appearance. That sort of ball-carrying pressure means even disciplined defenders like Walker-Peters are likely to be pulled up eventually.
On the opposite flank, El Hadji Malick Diouf looks an even stronger candidate. He has committed fouls in four of five league games, and now faces Iliman Ndiaye. The Everton forward has already been fouled 10 times this season, at least once in four of his five games and 2+ in three of them. That level of consistency almost guarantees Diouf will be tested repeatedly in one-on-one duels.
Given these direct match-ups with Grealish versus Walker-Peters and Ndiaye versus Diouf backing both West Ham full-backs to commit at least one foul each looks like a well-supported bet.
Predicted line-ups
Everton (4-2-3-1): Pickford, O’Brien, Keane, Tarkowski, Mykolenko, Gueye, Garner, Grealish, Dewsbury-Hall, Ndiaye, Beto
West Ham (4-2-3-1): Areola, Walker-Peters, Kilman, Mavropanos, Diouf, Ward-Prowse, Fernandes, Bowen, Paqueta, Summerville, Wilson
Anything else catch the eye?
Everton have a strong case to beat West Ham on Monday, with the data firmly behind them. Moyes has steadied Goodison Park, posting a strong home record since his return. That base is important against a West Ham side whose own numbers under Graham Potter are troubling.
Potter’s league record stands at W6-D5-L12. Four of those victories came against weaker or struggling opposition: relegated Ipswich and Leicester, Manchester United early in Ruben Amorim’s reign, Arsenal in a one-off excellent performance, and Nottingham Forest this season in the midst of boardroom and managerial turmoil. Even in the Fulham match where they scored three, West Ham were flattered. They created just 0.95 xG compared to Fulham’s 1.90 and converted three goals from four shots.
Across this campaign, West Ham’s underlying numbers show little improvement. They average 1.98 xGA per game, which is among the worst in the league. They have conceded nine big chances in their last four fixtures while creating only three themselves. By contrast, Everton are averaging 1.14 xGA per game and have restricted opponents to just 5.5 shots inside the box on average at Goodison.
In attack, Everton have generated eight big chances in five matches, double West Ham’s total. Their shots-on-target ratio is over 51% compared to West Ham’s 44%, highlighting the Toffees’ greater efficiency at both ends of the pitch.
Put simply, Everton are performing in line with their xPTS, while West Ham are underperforming despite moments of fortune. With Moyes’ resilient home record and West Ham’s long-running issues under Potter, the 5/6 on a home win looks well worth backing.
GambleAware