The Premier League weekend continues on Sunday as Everton christen their new home, the Hill Dickinson Stadium, with a clash against Brighton. It will be the Toffees’ first league game at Bramley-Moore Dock and one that David Moyes will hope sets the tone for the campaign.
Everton opened with a 1-0 defeat away at Leeds, where they carried a threat from set pieces but created almost nothing in open play, finishing with an xG of just 0.80 compared to Leeds’ 2.13. That reliance on dead-ball situations is a pattern that carried over from last season, when Moyes rebuilt Everton into a disciplined, well-organised unit but one that still struggled for consistent attacking output. Across his 20 league matches in charge, Everton collected 31 points, conceding only 20 goals, which put them 10th in the form table over that stretch. The summer saw the arrival of Thierno Barry from Villarreal, while Jack Grealish has joined on loan from Manchester City to add much-needed creativity. Grealish is expected to start here alongside Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, another Moyes addition who offers energy in midfield.
Brighton began with a 1-1 draw at home to Fulham, a game where they produced the better chances with 1.48 xG and 25 touches in the box but could not find a decisive finish. Last season under Fabian Hürzeler they ranked 8th in the away table, winning eight times and scoring in 18 of 19 trips. They were entertaining but open, with 74% of away games going over 2.5 goals and 68% landing BTTS. This summer saw the £60m sale of João Pedro to Chelsea and the arrival of Maxim De Cuyper, Mats Wieffer and Diego Coppola.
Everton’s defensive discipline against Brighton’s forward energy makes this a fascinating test of styles for the first Premier League game at the new ground.
How the bookies view it: Seagulls favourites
Everton are 9/4, which implies around a 30% chance of victory. That feels fair given their strong defensive structure under Moyes but lack of attacking punch. The draw is 12/5 (about 29%) whilst Brighton are 7/5 (roughly 42%) and are favourites thanks to their consistent scoring record and higher xG profile.
On the goals markets, over 2.5 at 11/10 suggests the bookies are leaning towards another high-event Brighton away game. The compromise could be both teams to score, which is 5/6.
Head to Head: Toffees hold slight advantage
The head-to-head record between Everton and Brighton is fairly balanced, with Everton holding a narrow advantage. Across 16 Premier League meetings, Everton have won seven, Brighton five, and four have ended level, with the Toffees outscoring the Seagulls 26–21. Recent clashes underline how close this fixture has become.
Everton won the most recent meeting 1-0 at Brighton in January 2025 with a disciplined Moyes performance, while Brighton took a 3-0 victory at Goodison at the start of last season. Before that, the sides played out back-to-back 1-1 draws, and the outlier remains Everton’s stunning 5-1 win at the Amex in May 2023 during their survival push.
Discipline is another notable theme. The last six meetings produced 32 cards, averaging 5.33 per game, with Brighton collecting 20 and Everton 12. This consistently high booking count adds weight to the case for considering card markets alongside the match result.
Players to watch: Set pieces key for Everton
James Tarkowski looks a strong candidate to register at least one shot when Everton take on Brighton. The centre-back is not a prolific shooter, but his numbers underline how often he pops up from set pieces. Last season in the Premier League he managed 15 shots in 33 appearances, averaging 0.45 per 90, with almost all of them coming from corners or free kicks. He even opened his account for the season in Everton’s 1-0 defeat at Leeds, where he had one effort despite his side struggling to create from open play.
Brighton’s profile makes the angle more appealing. They conceded 33 away goals last season and allowed plenty of chances from set pieces, with their games often open and stretched. Tarkowski has enjoyed getting forward against them before, taking four shots across his last four meetings, including two in the 5-1 win at the Amex in 2023 and one in both of his last two Goodison appearances against Brighton. With Everton heavily reliant on dead-ball situations under Moyes, Tarkowski is very likely to get at least one effort away again.
Predicted line-ups
Everton (4-2-3-1): Pickford, Iroegbunam, Tarkowski, Keane, OBrien, Gueye, Garner, Ndiaye, Dewsbury-Hall, Grealish, Beto
Brighton (4-2-3-1): Verbruggen, Wieffer, Van Hecke, Dunk, De Cuyper, Baleba, O’Riley, Minteh, Ayari, Mitoma, Rutter
Anything else catch the eye?
The numbers strongly back a combination of both teams to score and both sides to collect at least one card in this contest.
Starting with goals, Everton under Moyes have become resilient but not watertight. In his 20 league games in charge, both teams to score landed in 10, including high-profile draws with Liverpool, Manchester United and Arsenal. Their 1-0 loss at Leeds last weekend showed both sides still carry chances against them, as they conceded 21 shots, 12 inside the box. Everton themselves had 28 touches in the Leeds penalty area, underlining their ability to get into advanced positions even if the finishing touch was missing.
Brighton are the perfect complement. They scored in 18 of 19 away league games last season, finishing with the sixth highest away goal tally. Their away matches averaged 3.6 total goals, with 74% going over 2.5 and 68% landing both teams to score. Their 1-1 with Fulham on opening day again showed their strength in open play, generating 1.48 xG, and their vulnerability at the other end, allowing seven shots with five inside their box.
On discipline, this fixture has a strong card trend. The last six meetings have averaged 5.33 yellows, with Brighton collecting 20 and Everton 12. Stuart Attwell is the referee here and last season 16 of his 19 games saw him book players from both sides. He averaged 4.0 yellows per game, well in line with what this head-to-head usually produces.
With Everton’s defensive organisation balanced against Brighton’s attacking intent, goals at both ends look highly probable, and the card data adds even more weight. The combination of both teams to score and each team to be booked is one of the most logical angles for this match.
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