England host Croatia at Wembley Stadium on Thursday, with kick-off at 19:45, as Thomas Tuchel's side look to strengthen their position in the Nations League quarter-final race.
The Three Lions have responded to their opening defeat against Spain with three consecutive victories, keeping a clean sheet in each. Croatia arrive in London having lost three of their four group matches, with defensive injuries adding to Slaven Bilic's problems.
England began their campaign with a 3-2 defeat against Spain before beating Czechia 2-0. Their performances improved considerably in October, when they thrashed Croatia 7-0 in Rijeka and followed that result with a 3-0 home victory over Czechia.
Harry Kane scored twice in the latest success, with Vladimir Coufal putting through his own net. Morgan Rogers and Lewis Hall provided assists as England maintained their pursuit of group leaders Spain.
The reverse fixture against Croatia was even more emphatic. Kane and Bukayo Saka scored twice each, Jude Bellingham contributed a goal and three assists, while Anthony Gordon and Rogers completed the scoring.
Croatia's only victory came against Czechia. Their subsequent defeats have left them third in Group A3, with the possibility of relegation still hanging over their final two fixtures.
England sit second with nine points, three behind Spain. Croatia have three points, while Czechia remain bottom without a point.
Tuchel has several selection decisions to make. Marc Guehi is injured, Myles Lewis-Skelly is suspended and Cole Palmer is absent from the squad. Josh King and Jobe Bellingham are the two uncapped outfield players included in November's selection.
Croatia have more extensive problems. Ivan Perisic is suspended, while Josip Sutalo, Martin Pongracic, Andrej Kramaric, Franjo Ivanovic and Kristijan Jakic are unavailable through injury.
Kane is preparing for his 126th England appearance, which would take him past Peter Shilton's international caps record. Croatia captain Luka Modric is approaching his 207th appearance.
How the bookies view it
England are favourites at 5/19, implying a 79.2% probability of victory. The draw is available at 6/1, representing 14.3%, while Croatia are 11/1, or 8.3%.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1/2, implying 66.7%, with under 2.5 at 13/8, or 38.1%. Both teams to score is 1/1 for yes, representing 50%, while no is available at 13/15, implying 53.6%.
Head to head: Three Lions strong recent record
England have won both meetings during 2026, recording a 4-2 victory at the World Cup in June before their dominant Nations League performance in October. Croatia's previous competitive victory against England came in the 2018 World Cup semi-final, when they won 2-1 after extra time.
The latest meeting provides the strongest indication of the current difference between the teams, with England controlling the contest and repeatedly exposing Croatia's defensive structure.
Player to watch: Harry Kane to score yet again
Harry Kane has registered four goals and eight assists in 715 minutes this season, contributing directly to 12 goals.
The England captain has accumulated 7.03 xG from 43 shots, with 11 on target. His 5.46 non-penalty xG and 54 touches inside the opposition penalty area underline his regular involvement in scoring positions. Kane has also created 22 chances, including nine big chances, while producing 2.84 xA. His 40 line-breaking passes demonstrate his ability to create opportunities when dropping into deeper positions.
His combination of shooting volume and creativity makes him particularly difficult to contain when England's attacking midfielders move beyond him.
Predicted lineups
England (4-2-3-1): Pickford, Alexander-Arnold, Konsa, Branthwaite, Hall, Rice, Anderson, Rogers, Bellingham, Gordon, Kane.
Croatia (4-2-3-1): Livakovic, Stanisic, Vuskovic, Caleta-Car, Gvardiol, Modric, Kovacic, Vlasic, Pasalic, Baturina, Budimir.
Anything else catch the eye
England over 2.5 team goals at 1/1 is the preferred selection, with Croatia's defensive performances providing the strongest argument for another high-scoring display from the hosts.
Our model puts England's attacking output at 2.92 xG per match, equivalent to 11.68 across their opening four fixtures. Their average of 16.75 shots gives them a substantial volume of opportunities, while their recent results demonstrate an ability to turn chances into goals.
Croatia have averaged 2.58 xGA per match, a total of 10.32 across the group stage. That is a concerning defensive return against an England side which has already exposed their weaknesses.
The October meeting provides the clearest example. England generated 6.43 xG from 19 attempts, placing 10 shots on target. Croatia produced 1.39 xG, leaving a difference of 5.04 between the teams' attacking outputs.
The visitors have also struggled against Spain, losing 4-1 in September before suffering a 2-1 defeat in October. Those results underline their difficulties against opponents capable of maintaining pressure and creating chances from different areas.
England's attacking options are strengthened by Jude Bellingham's influence between midfield and attack, while Anthony Gordon's movement offers another route behind Croatia's defensive line. Bilic must now reorganise his defence without Sutalo and Pongracic. The absence of Perisic also reduces Croatia's experience and attacking support on the left.
The main reservation is England's conversion rate in this particular market. They have scored three or more goals in 50% of their Nations League matches, so the selection demands more than their minimum attacking output.
Nevertheless, Croatia's defensive record, the considerable xG difference in Rijeka and England's sustained shot production provide a strong statistical basis for backing the hosts to score at least three times.
GambleAware