The UEFA Nations League returns this Thursday, as a desperate Turkey host Belgium in a vital League A clash. This fixture carries significant weight for both nations as they look to salvage their respective campaigns.
Turkey’s inaugural campaign in League A has been nothing short of a disaster. After suffering four consecutive defeats, scoring just twice and conceding 11 times, Vincenzo Montella was dismissed from his post.
Sergen Yalcin has been handed the reins, and he will be hoping that the ‘new manager bounce’ applies to him and his side. Anything but a win will confirm Turkey’s return to League B.
On the other side, Mark van Bommel’s Belgium find themselves in third place in Group A1 with two wins and two defeats.
The Red Devils are currently on course for a relegation play-off and will be eager to bounce back after giving up an early lead in a 4-1 defeat to France on matchday four.
Anything less than a victory in Turkey could plunge them into deeper trouble, but a lot also depends on the result of the other fixture in the group.
There are a couple of suspensions to take into account – Turkey will be without defensive stalwart Abdulkerim Bardakci due to accumulated bookings, while Belgium are missing midfield anchor Romeo Lavia for the same reason.
How the bookies view it: The managerial change will not save Turkey
Given Turkey’s dismal defensive record of conceding an average of nearly three goals per game in this cycle, the market expects the Red Devils to claim all three points.
You can currently back Turkey at 27/10, while Belgium are available at 17/20. A draw is priced fairly high at 3/1.
Recent head-to-head: An effortless 3-0 for the Red Devils
The recent history between these two nations leans heavily in Belgium’s favour, but the long-term picture is far from one-sided.
Turkey claimed just one win in the last six meetings, although three of the six were stalemates. Most of this data is not relevant, as they have met only once in the last 15 years.
The reverse-clash from this cycle ended in a classic 3-0 for the Red Devils.
Players to watch: Guler has never looked sharper
Beyond the suspensions, Yalcin will be without the injured Kenan Yildiz. Surprisingly, Kerem Artukoglu was not selected for the squad, which leaves us with one viable option – Arda Guler.
The 21-year-old Real Madrid star has had the best month of his career with three goals and four assists in his last six appearances for Los Blancos.
Probable line-ups
Turkey: Cakir, Kadioglu, Demiral, Kabak, Celik, Calhanoglu, Ozcan, Aydin, Guler, Yilmaz, Gul
Belgium: Lammens, De Cuyper, Mechele, Ngoy, Castagne, Tielemans, Raskin, Lukebakio, Doku, De Bruyne, De Ketelaere
Anything else catch the eye?
Turkey should find a way through with a new manager at the helm, but Belgium’s superior attacking quality will likely overpower them. In other words, I expect both teams to score, but the Red Devils to claim the points.
On the disciplinary front, Belgium have seen at least three of their players booked in each of their four UNL matches to date. In the reverse clash with Turkey, they picked up four cards.
Given the physical nature of away games in Turkey, I expect at least a couple of cards for Belgium, and over 3.5 overall.
GambleAware