International football royalty clashes at the iconic San Siro this Thursday, as Roberto Mancini's Italy welcome Zinedine Zidane's France in a blockbuster UEFA Nations League encounter. A win will guarantee Les Bleus’ triumph in the group stage, while a loss will leave the two teams with equal chances ahead of the final round.
France arrive in Milan in formidable form, sitting at the top of the group with three wins and a draw from their four matches.
The visitors remain unbeaten in this Nations League cycle and finally showed their attacking muscle last time out, securing a dominant 4-1 victory over Belgium.
Italy, meanwhile, sit second in the group with seven points. The Azzurri are not unbeaten, having suffered a frustrating 2-0 home defeat to Belgium on matchday one, but they have recovered well since then.
The two dominant wins over Turkey gave them a real fighting chance in this group, but the biggest tests are yet to pass.
Both sides have had to navigate significant defensive absences during this international window, meaning the tactical battle in midfield will likely dictate which nation controls the tempo at San Siro.
How the bookies view it: The Azzurri are not ready
Despite playing away from home, France are viewed as considerable favourites by the bookmakers. These odds reflect their unbeaten record and the sheer depth of their attacking talent.
You can currently back Italy to win at around 9/2, while France have been priced at 3/4. A draw is never out of the question, and you can back it at 3/1.
Recent head-to-head: Never a dull moment between these giants
Historically, fixtures between these two European giants are tight, tactical affairs, but recent trends have pointed towards goals.
The reverse fixture proved that Italy have the midfield engine to disrupt France's rhythm, and there were even periods in that match when the Azzurri looked better.
Nevertheless, Les Bleus have had the upper hand in recent years, winning three of the last five H2Hs (D1, L1).
More notably, eight of the last 10 encounters featured goals from both sides, including the last six in a row.
Players to watch: Olise carried France in the first four rounds
Zidane will be forced to manage without a whole group of his usual starters. William Saliba, Jules Kounde, Manu Kone, and Ousmane Dembele are just a few names on the current injury list.
Kylian Mbappe will always be the obvious pick, but I believe Michael Olise is a far more compelling option. He has slowed down a bit in recent weeks, but he is France’s most creative player.
He was also the main reason for Les Bleus’ success so far in this Nations League cycle, scoring four of their seven goals and assisting for two of the other three.
Probable line-ups
Italy: Donnarumma, Calafiori, Bastoni, Scalvini, Kayode, Doumbia, Tonali, Barella, P. Esposito, Vergara, S. Esposito
France: Maignan, Truffert, Upamecano, Jacquet, Gusto, Cherki, Rabiot, Tchouameni, Doue, Olise, Mbappe
Anything else catch the eye?
With both sides showing strong goalscoring form in recent matches and a history of finding the net against each other, backing the BTTS market is the most logical decision.
And while they drew 1-1 last month, the stakes are higher here, and an early goal could force a very open, high-scoring affair.
Additionally, the same factors suggest a physical clash. The second half in the reverse fixture saw six bookings, four of which were picked up by Italy. Over 1.5 team cards for the Azzurri feels like a great opportunity, and bookmakers have put a fair price on that.
GambleAware