Sheffield Wednesday host Accrington Stanley at Hillsborough on Wednesday, with kick-off at 19:00 UK time, as the EFL Trophy group stage reaches its conclusion.
The Owls have already secured their place in the knockout rounds, but Dave Challinor is still searching for his first victory since taking charge. Wednesday's recent FA Cup defeat highlighted problems which their new manager will be keen to address.
Accrington arrive knowing a point would guarantee progression. John Doolan's side remain unbeaten in the group, although their latest FA Cup appearance ended in disappointment against higher-division opposition.
Wednesday suffered a 2-1 extra-time defeat against Oldham Athletic at Boundary Park on Saturday. Calum Kavanagh gave the hosts the lead before Davis Keillor-Dunn equalised with 15 minutes remaining, converting after collecting Max Lowe's delivery.
The Owls improved after the interval but failed to capitalise on their opportunities. Will Sutton eventually settled the contest in the 109th minute after Wednesday failed to defend a free-kick. Challinor criticised his team's slow start and defensive mistakes, describing the goals conceded as avoidable.
The defeat was compounded by an injury to goalkeeper Ashley Maynard-Brewer, who was replaced by Connal Trueman during the opening stages.
Accrington were eliminated from the FA Cup following a 2-0 home defeat against Wycombe Wanderers. Connor Taylor opened the scoring from an early corner before Daniel Harvie headed home another set-piece delivery during the second half.
Charlie Warren threatened an equaliser, but his effort was cleared off the line. Accrington subsequently enjoyed periods of pressure without finding a breakthrough.
Wednesday's expected rotation and Accrington's need for a positive result introduce an interesting tactical dimension to the contest.
How the bookies view it
Sheffield Wednesday are favourites at 4/6, representing an implied probability of 60%. Accrington are available at 7/2, while the draw is priced at 31/10.
Over 2.5 goals is offered at 8/15, carrying an implied probability of 65.2%,. Both teams to score is priced at 4/7, while both teams to score and over 2.5 goals is available at 17/20.
Head to head: First competitive meeting
Sheffield Wednesday and Accrington Stanley have never previously met in a competitive fixture.
Player to watch: Charlie Warren to lead visitors attack
Charlie Warren is expected to lead Accrington's attack as the visitors attempt to secure their place in the knockout rounds. The forward has scored five goals this season and remains an important attacking option with Charlie Caton unavailable.
Warren was involved in Accrington's FA Cup defeat against Wycombe, seeing an early effort cleared off the line as Stanley attempted to respond to falling behind. He is expected to partner Tyler Walton, who recently scored twice during a 5-0 victory over Rochdale.
Their partnership provides Accrington with attacking options despite the injuries affecting Doolan's squad. Warren's ability to convert opportunities will be important against a Wednesday defence expected to undergo several changes.
Predicted lineups
Sheffield Wednesday (3-4-3): Trueman; Weaver, Santos, Bernard; Fusire, Heskey, Thornton, Liongola; Morrison, Lowe, Gray.
Accrington Stanley (3-4-1-2): Moulden; Matthews, Rawson, Anderson; Whalley, Mols, Borland, Grant; Darcy; Warren, Walton.
Anything else catch the eye?
Sheffield Wednesday to win and under 4.5 goals at 6/5 is the leading result-based selection, although the expected changes to the home lineup make this a cautious recommendation. Wednesday have won both EFL Trophy group matches, defeating Salford 2-1 before recording a 2-0 victory against Sunderland U21.
Those fixtures produced five goals, averaging 2.50 per match. The Owls scored four and conceded once, demonstrating greater defensive control than their opponents.
Accrington's two group matches have produced eight goals, averaging 4.00 per fixture. The visitors drew 3-3 against Sunderland U21 before sharing a 1-1 result with Salford, scoring four and conceding four across the two encounters.
Wednesday's longer-term EFL Trophy record also supports the under 4.5 component. Their last ten appearances have featured 22 goals, including 13 scored and nine conceded. Seven of those fixtures finished under 2.5 goals.
Accrington's corresponding ten-match record features 25 goals, with 17 scored and eight conceded. Only three of those matches exceeded 2.5 goals, providing further evidence against assuming a high-scoring contest.
The home side's two group victories offer the strongest argument for backing Wednesday, but Challinor's expected rotation introduces uncertainty.
Accrington have a clear incentive to avoid defeat, knowing a point would guarantee progression. The visitors' attacking absences and recent failure to score against Wycombe support the possibility of another controlled contest, although Wednesday's goalkeeper situation and defensive changes remain concerns.
The 6/5 price implies a 45.5% chance of success. Wednesday's group results and both clubs' longer-term scoring records provide statistical support, but the anticipated changes prevent this from being a high-confidence selection.
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