England and Germany meet in Saturday’s U21 European Championship final in Bratislava, a rematch of their group-stage clash that Germany won 2-1. That result is the only blemish on England’s tournament record, and despite the defeat, the numbers suggest they were the better side, winning the xG 1.63 to 0.65 and creating the clearer chances.
That theme has continued throughout the tournament. England have now won the xG battle in four of their five games, even in their goalless draw with Slovenia where they posted 2.40 xG, and were deserved winners against Spain and the Netherlands in the knockouts.
Germany arrive with a perfect W5-D0-L0 record and the tournament’s most dangerous attack: 15 goals from 76 attempts, with standout performances in wins over France (3-0, xG 3.41 vs 2.51) and Czech Republic (4-2, xG 2.90 vs 0.88). They have consistently turned pressure into goals, and their finishing has been a clear edge, averaging a goal every 5.1 shots compared to England’s 8.7. But that ruthlessness has occasionally masked moments of vulnerability. In the group game against England and even in extra time vs Italy, where the Italians played 30 minutes with nine men, they were less in control than the score lines suggest.
England have been more balanced. Their attacking output has come with control: 78 shots, 30 corners, and just five goals conceded. They have looked especially strong in midfield where players like Harvey Elliott and Alex Scott have dictated tempo, and they have limited opponents to an average of just 0.87 xG per game. Germany, meanwhile, have been more direct, more aggressive, and also more open.
The tactical contrast is clear, Germany will look to play fast and vertical, England more structured and possession-based.
How the bookies view it: Goals forecast
The bookmakers see this U21 Euro final as finely balanced. England are priced at 13/8 to win in 90 minutes, with Germany only just behind at 17/10, and the draw at 14/5. There is very little between the two sides in the market, reflecting how closely matched they’ve been throughout the tournament.
In the goals markets, there is a clear expectation of an open game. Over 2.5 goals is just 8/13 and both teams to score is 1/2.
Recent head-to-head: Goals with both teams scoring
The head-to-head record between England U21 and Germany U21 is finely balanced, with both sides winning five of their last 14 meetings and four ending in draws. The rivalry has been close in both score lines and performances, with Germany just edging the goal tally at 20 to England’s 19. This evenness has been reflected not only in results but also in the nature of the games, ten of the 14 have seen both teams score, underlining how often these encounters are open and competitive.
Recent meetings slightly favour Germany. In the last five games between the sides, Germany have won three, England one, with one draw. Four of those five matches also went over 2.5 goals, continuing the trend of attacking football and chances at both ends.
Players to watch: Elliott to run the show
Harvey Elliott has been central to England’s U21 Euro campaign, both statistically and in terms of influence. He has scored four of England’s nine goals, nearly half of the team’s total and continues to be the most dangerous player in the final third. His impact on the team’s overall attacking output is clear: he’s taken 18 of England’s 78 total shots and six of their 21 shots on target. No player in the tournament has attempted more shots, and only three have registered more on target.
Beyond the numbers, Elliott’s ability to link play, drift between lines, and create in tight spaces has been the foundation of England’s attacking rhythm. He scored both goals in the semi-final win over the Netherlands, including a brilliant solo effort, and was involved in all phases of build-up. Lee Carsley has given him a free role in the centre of England’s 4-2-3-1, where he regularly combines with James McAtee and Omari Hutchinson to stretch defences and overload wide areas.
For a side that’s often built on control and structure, Elliott adds spontaneity and edge.
Predicted line-ups
England U21 (4-2-3-1): Beadle; Livramento, Quansah, Cresswell, Hinshelwood; Anderson, Scott; Hutchinson, Elliott, McAtee; Stansfield
Germany U21 (4-4-2): Atubolu; Collins, Oermann, Arrey-Mbi, Brown; Knauff, Martel, Reitz, Nebel; Woltemade, Weiper
Anything else catch the eye?
Both teams to score looks a strong possibility in this final given the attacking quality and trends shown by both sides throughout the tournament. Germany have scored in all five matches, finding the net 15 times, the most of any team. Their front two, Nick Woltemade and Nelson Weiper, have been sharp, combining for several goals and consistently testing defences. Germany have also conceded in three of their five games, including against England in the group stage, when they gave up 1.63 xG and were regularly exposed through the middle.
England have scored in four of their five games, with Harvey Elliott at the centre of everything going forward. They have won the xG battle in four of their five matches, losing it only against Czech Republic in a game they won 3-1. Germany have also won the xG battle in four of five, with their one exception coming against England, where they won 2-1 despite being second best on the numbers.
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