The Premier League schedule serves up a fascinating Saturday at Selhurst Park as Crystal Palace host Liverpool. Both sides arrive in good form and with plenty of talking points around their squads, setting the stage for what looks like an even contest.
Palace, under Oliver Glasner, have adapted quickly this season despite summer changes. The departure of Eberechi Eze meant a major shift in attacking output, but new signing Yeremy Pino and Javi Munoz have provided quality in wide and creative areas, while Jean-Philippe Mateta continues to carry the goal threat up front.
The data backs up their progress. They sit inside the league’s top four for xPTS across the last four rounds, posting strong numbers for xG while keeping their defensive structure intact. A 3-0 win at Aston Villa showcased their efficiency, and even in tighter games they have carried a balanced threat.
Liverpool, meanwhile, are unbeaten under Arne Slot and come into this match having won all five of their league fixtures. The highlights include a 1-0 win over Arsenal and victory at Burnley by the same score, where they managed the game well despite not dominating the xG.
Mohamed Salah remains the key creative figure, but the forward line has a fresh look. Hugo Ekitike has been leading the line, while Alexander Isak is being eased into regular minutes following his move from Newcastle. Both give Slot different options, and with Salah’s invention around them, Liverpool are carrying consistent attacking danger.
Injuries remain a factor for both teams. Palace have concerns over Ismaila Sarr and Yeremi Pino, while Liverpool have Hugo Ekitie suspended and continue to monitor defensive rotation
With both sides in strong form, Palace’s resilience at home and Liverpool’s perfect record add intrigue to what should be one of the weekend’s standout fixtures.
How the bookies view it: Visitors slight favourites
Liverpool are slight favourites at 20/23, which implies a 53% chance of winning away at Selhurst Park. Crystal Palace are 31/10 outsiders (around 24%), with the draw at 3/1 (just over 25%).
The goals markets are set up for an open contest: over 2.5 goals is priced at 8/11, an implied probability of 58%, while both teams to score is 4/6, giving it a 60% chance. Palace have seen both teams score land in four of their five league matches, showing they can both score and concede regularly, while Liverpool have found the net in every league game so far, averaging just over two goals per match.
The data suggests Palace will likely create enough to threaten, but Liverpool’s attacking options them the edge.
Head to Head: Liverpool strong but Palace resurgent under Glasner
Liverpool and Crystal Palace meet again in the Premier League with the head-to-head heavily in Liverpool’s favour. Across the last 20 meetings, Liverpool have taken 14 wins, with four draws and only two defeats, scoring 44 and conceding just 16 in that stretch.
The Reds have suffered just one defeat in their last 18 meetings (W13-D4-L1), including a 1-0 win at Selhurst Park last October.
Crystal Palace have had occasional success in frustrating Liverpool, taking points in four of the last five league clashes, but the margins have often been tight. Five of those six games ended with two or fewer goals scored, showing that Palace can keep games close even if wins have been elusive.
For Liverpool, the standout memory remains the 7-0 demolition of Palace in December 2020, but more recent meetings suggest a pattern of low-scoring, hard-fought matches. The Community Shield in August offered the latest reminder, finishing 2-2 after Palace twice pegged Liverpool back.
Overall, Liverpool hold the clear historical edge, but Palace under Oliver Glasner are more compact and harder to break down than in past years. His record against Liverpool is W1-D2-L1. While the long-term head-to-head tilts towards the Reds, recent trends suggest this could be closer than the prices might imply.
Players to watch: Munoz and Gakpo will be fun
Daniel Munoz is a standout candidate in the fouls market when Palace face Liverpool. The Colombian has already committed seven fouls in five league games this season, averaging 1.4 per match and collecting two bookings. He has committed at least two fouls in three of those appearances and has history against Liverpool too, making 1, 3 and 2 fouls in their last three meetings.
On Saturday he is set to line up directly against Cody Gakpo, who has been one of the most fouled players in the league so far. The Dutchman has drawn 12 fouls across five matches, with game logs of 3, 4, 3, 1 and 1. His mix of close control and driving runs into the box means defenders are often forced into late or clumsy challenges to stop him progressing.
With Gakpo’s ability to win fouls and Munoz’s tendency to give them away under pressure, backing Munoz for over 1.5 fouls looks a strong angle in this matchup.
Predicted line-ups
Crystal Palace (3-4-3): Henderson, Munoz, Mitchell, Lacroix, Guehi, Pino, Mateta, Kamada, Hughes, Wharton, Richards
Liverpool (4-2-3-1): Alisson, Frimpong, Van Dijk, Konate, Kerkez, Szoboszlai, Gravenberch, Mac Allister, Salah, Gakpo, Isak
Anything else catch the eye?
Crystal Palace’s clash with Liverpool on Saturday afternoon looks like one of the stronger betting angles for both teams to score and both teams carded. The underlying numbers for both clubs suggest this could be a competitive and lively encounter at Selhurst Park.
Palace under Oliver Glasner are unbeaten at home this season, with their matches consistently showing attacking intent and defensive vulnerability. They rank among the league’s best for expected points in recent weeks, creating chances through Yeremy Pino and Javi Munoz, while Jean-Philippe Mateta has been an important focal point up front.
Their last four matches have seen them generate over 1.7 xG on average, but they have also allowed nearly the same figure, underlining why both teams to score has landed frequently.
Liverpool come into this fixture on the back of five straight wins in the league, including a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Arsenal and a derby success against Everton. Arne Slot’s side are still adjusting their forward options but Alexander Isak is now in line for this Premier League debut for the Reds following his move from Newcastle.
Isak will offer a threat inside the box, while Mohamed Salah’s creativity has been crucial. Defensively, Liverpool are far from watertight, conceding in four of five league games, with their xGA sitting close to one per match.
Cards also look a strong angle. Every Liverpool and Palace league match this season has seen both teams pick up bookings. Referee Chris Kavanagh averages 3.56 yellows per game this term, and his record with these clubs suggests he rarely lets physical battles pass without punishment. Palace average 4.8 cards per game in total, while Liverpool sit at the same mark, underlining the trend.
With attacking strengths, defensive gaps, and consistent card counts, both teams to score and both teams carded makes strong appeal.
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