The 2025 FA Community Shield takes place at Wembley on Sunday afternoon, with Premier League champions Liverpool facing FA Cup winners Crystal Palace. It marks Palace’s first appearance in the competition, while Liverpool are contesting it for the 25th time.
Liverpool arrive off the back of a title-winning campaign in which they collected 84 points, scored in 37 of their 38 league matches, and posted an xPTS of 83.1. Their xG difference (+43.6) was comfortably the best in the division, reflecting balance in attack and defence. Arne Slot’s first summer window has brought in Jeremie Frimpong, Hugo Ekitike, Milos Kerkez, and Florian Wirtz. The pre-season schedule produced four wins and one defeat, with 14 goals scored but 10 conceded, suggesting sharpness in the final third but some defensive gaps.
Palace’s 2024/25 season saw them finish 12th with 53 points, posting an xPTS of 57.2. Their xG difference was +11.3, underlining that they were better than their mid-table finish suggested. Oliver Glasner’s side were solid away from home (28 points, +2 goal difference) and their FA Cup run, capped by a 1-0 win over Manchester City in the final, showed their ability to frustrate top sides. However, summer business has been quiet with Walter Benítez and Borna Sosa are the only additions.
Both clubs are navigating different challenges with Liverpool aiming to maintain dominance while integrating new signings, Palace looking to carry momentum despite uncertainty around European participation. With Liverpool’s attack firing and Palace’s resilience, Sunday’s match should provide an early test of each team’s sharpness under the Wembley spotlight.
How the bookies view it: Liverpool huge favourites
At current prices, Crystal Palace are 5/1 (16.7% implied probability), the draw is 16/5 (23.8%), and Liverpool are 11/18 (62.1%). Over 2.5 goals is 5/6 (54.6%), while both teams to score is 4/5 (55.6%). Both teams to score price looks particularly interesting when compared to last season’s numbers, with Liverpool seeing it land in 24 of 38 league games (63.2%) and Palace in 21 of 38 (55.3%).
Head to Head: Goals have dried up recently
The recent head-to-head record between Liverpool and Crystal Palace shows a mix of high-scoring encounters and tighter affairs. Across the last 20 meetings, 12 have gone over 2.5 goals, giving a 60% strike rate for that line. However, recent seasons have seen a drop in frequency, with only 2 of the last 6 meetings clearing it.
Both teams to score has been less common, landing in just 7 of the last 20 games (35%), and only twice in the last 8. While there have been notable goal-fests in the past, such as Liverpool’s 7-0 and 4-3 wins, the fixture has often tightened in recent years, with several low-scoring matches decided by a single goal.
Players to watch: Munoz to cause Liverpool problems
Daniel Munoz to have over 0.5 shots at 10/11 looks a strong bet based on last season’s data and the match context. The Colombian wing-back took at least one shot in 27 of his 37 Premier League appearances in 2024/25, meaning this bet would have landed in 73% of games. He averaged exactly one shot per match and showed a consistent willingness to get forward, particularly when Palace were playing on the break or exploiting space in wide areas.
Liverpool’s pre-season suggests they are still adjusting defensively, particularly with two new full-backs in Frimpong and Kerkez. They conceded in all five friendlies, including three against Athletic Bilbao and four against AC Milan, and often looked stretched when defending transitions. That vulnerability, especially down the flanks, sets up well for a player like Munoz, who gets into advanced positions regularly and isn’t shy about shooting when space opens up.
Given his consistency last season and the way this match is likely to play out, over 0.5 shots at 10/11 offers solid value
Predicted line-ups
Crystal Palace (3-4-2-1): Henderson, Richards, Lacroix, Guehi, Munoz, Kamada, Wharton, Mitchell, Sarr, Mateta, Eze.
Liverpool (4-2-3-1): Alisson, Frimpong, Konate, Van Dijk, Kerkez, Gravenberch, Mac Allister, Salah, Wirtz, Gakpo, Ekitike
Anything else catch the eye?
Both teams to score has a strong statistical case in this Community Shield meeting. Liverpool found the net in 97.4% of their league games last season, recording 86 goals from 647 shots, with 238 on target. They also ranked first for big chances created (104) and averaged 2.19 xG per match. Even against organised opponents, their chance creation rarely dipped.
Palace were far from blunt in 2024/25, scoring in 30 of 38 league matches. They attempted 489 shots, 170 on target, with 62 big chances created. Their 1.34 goals per game came from an average of 1.34 xG, showing they were generally clinical. Against last season’s top four, they scored in seven of eight matches.
Pre-season offers more encouragement for goals at both ends. Liverpool scored 14 times in five friendlies but conceded in all of them, giving up 10 goals and multiple high-value chances to AC Milan and Athletic Bilbao. Palace’s warm-up games featured goals for and against, including three scored in wins over Augsburg and lower-tier opposition, but also conceding twice to Mainz.
Liverpool’s high defensive line and Palace’s direct threat, particularly through Eberechi Eze and Jean-Philippe Mateta, suggest opportunities on the counter. Liverpool averaged 1.08 goals against per game last season but conceded in 63% of matches. Palace conceded 1.34 per game, with just 28.95% clean sheets.
The combination of Liverpool’s relentless attack and Palace’s proven ability to score against elite opponents makes both teams to score a logical play, especially in a match that may lack peak defensive organisation so early in the season.
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