Crystal Palace welcome Hoffenheim to Selhurst Park on Thursday with kick-off at 17:45 UK time in the Europa League league phase. Both clubs have endured difficult domestic campaigns, although their European performances have offered encouragement. With the visitors showing stronger underlying attacking numbers, this promises to be an important test for Pierre Sage's struggling side.
Palace enter the fixture following consecutive 2-0 Premier League defeats against Newcastle United and Tottenham Hotspur. Those setbacks followed a humiliating 5-0 loss to Brighton, increasing the pressure on Sage after a difficult opening to his first season in charge.
The Eagles have collected just two victories from nine league fixtures, scoring nine goals and conceding 21. Their underlying performances are equally concerning, with averages of 1.14 xG and 2.36 xGA per match.
Palace have enjoyed greater attacking success in Europe. They opened with an emphatic 4-0 victory over Lech Poznan before losing 3-2 against Lyon. A subsequent 2-2 draw away at Besiktas demonstrated their ability to compete against difficult opposition, although defensive vulnerabilities remain evident.
The London club have collected four points from their opening three European matches, scoring eight goals and conceding five. Their opponents have consistently created opportunities, raising questions about Palace's ability to withstand sustained attacking pressure.
Hoffenheim arrive with their own inconsistencies, having recorded three victories from eight Bundesliga fixtures. Their domestic record includes 14 goals scored and 16 conceded, leaving them searching for greater defensive stability.
However, Christian Ilzer's side have produced considerably stronger underlying attacking performances. Hoffenheim average 1.89 xG per Bundesliga match, compared with 1.29 xGA, suggesting their results have not always reflected the quality of opportunities created.
Their European campaign began disappointingly with a 2-0 defeat against OFI Crete, followed by a 3-2 loss to Besiktas. However, they responded impressively by beating Lyon 3-0, securing their first points in the competition.
That result provided evidence of their attacking potential against established European opposition. Hoffenheim have scored five goals across three Europa League fixtures, although their defensive performances remain inconsistent.
Their recent Bundesliga results have also been mixed. An impressive 3-0 victory over Bayer Leverkusen, featuring 3.46 xG, was followed by a 2-0 defeat against Werder Bremen.
Palace have several availability concerns. Chadi Riad remains sidelined with a serious knee injury, while Takehiro Tomiyasu is recovering from a calf problem. Ismaila Sarr is also unavailable through a groin injury, reducing Sage's attacking options.
Hoffenheim have a longer injury list. Robin Hranac, Bambase Conte, Albian Hajdari, Valentin Gendrey, Nathan De Cat and Patrick Wimmer are all sidelined. Vladimir Coufal is doubtful.
Those absences could influence Ilzer's defensive selections, although Hoffenheim's latest starting XI provides a reasonable indication of their likely formation.
How the bookies view it
Crystal Palace are favourites at 19/20, representing an implied probability of 51.3%. The draw is available at 3/1, carrying a 25% probability, while Hoffenheim are 11/4 to win, implying 26.7%.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 8/15, representing an implied probability of 65.2%, while under 2.5 goals is available at 13/8. Both teams to score is priced at 1/2 for yes, implying a probability of 66.7%, while no is available at 7/4.
Head to head: First meeting
Crystal Palace and Hoffenheim have not previously played each other in a competitive fixture.
Player to watch: Andrej Kramaric to cause the hosts defensive issues
Andrej Kramaric remains an important attacking influence for Hoffenheim and will be looking to exploit Crystal Palace's defensive weaknesses at Selhurst Park on Thursday.
The Croatian international has played 189 minutes in the Europa League this season, scoring once and providing one assist. His five shots have generated 0.96 xG, with two attempts hitting the target, although his goal came from the penalty spot. His non-penalty xG stands at 0.17.
Kramaric has also contributed creatively, registering 0.50 xA and creating four chances, including one big chance. His 12 line-breaking passes demonstrate his ability to find teammates in advanced positions and disrupt opposition defensive structures.
His movement around the penalty area is another important feature, with 13 touches inside the opposition box despite his limited playing time. Kramaric has completed 84.2% of his passes, highlighting his ability to retain possession and link Hoffenheim's midfield with their attacking players.
Predicted lineups
Crystal Palace (3-4-2-1): Henderson; Richards, Disasi, Canvot; Mingueza, Wharton, Kamada, Mitchell; McNeil, Pino; Mateta.
Hoffenheim (3-5-2): Baumann; Kabak, Machida, Rots; Daghim, Burger, Avdullahu, Kramaric, Abraha; Asllani, Hlozek.
Anything else catch the eye?
Hoffenheim double chance at 19/20 is the recommended bet.
Our model highlights a significant difference in the underlying performances of these teams, particularly Hoffenheim's attacking output compared with Crystal Palace's defensive record.
The German visitors have generated 15.13 xG across eight Bundesliga fixtures, averaging almost 1.9 per match. That suggests they possess sufficient attacking quality to trouble a Palace defence that has repeatedly struggled against opponents creating opportunities.
Palace's defensive statistics are particularly concerning. They have conceded 21 goals in nine Premier League matches, while opponents have generated an average of 2.36 xGA. Those figures indicate sustained defensive problems rather than isolated poor performances.
Their recent results reinforce those concerns. Three consecutive league defeats without scoring have placed considerable pressure on Sage, whose team must now respond against opposition capable of creating chances consistently.
Hoffenheim's own defensive record is far from convincing, particularly with several players unavailable through injury. That makes an outright away victory more difficult to support confidently. However, the double chance market provides protection against a draw, which is important given Hoffenheim's inconsistent results.
Palace have shown they possess attacking quality in Europe, but their domestic performances suggest they remain vulnerable against opponents prepared to attack with confidence.
Hoffenheim's victory over Lyon demonstrated their ability to compete successfully against strong European opposition, while their positive domestic xG difference provides further encouragement.
The visitors do not need to dominate proceedings to secure a positive result. Their attacking threat should give them opportunities, particularly if Palace continue to struggle defensively. With Palace winning only twice domestically and Hoffenheim producing stronger underlying performances, our model supports the visitors avoiding defeat.
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