The Champions League lights shine brightly in Athens this Wednesday, as Greek champions AEK Athens welcome Real Madrid to the Allwyn Arena. This is a classic David versus Goliath scenario, but throughout the years we have seen that European nights in Greece are rarely straightforward.
AEK Athens head into this fixture knowing they face an uphill battle. The Greek champions have had a challenging start to their Champions League campaign, currently near the bottom of the table following one win and two defeats.
However, their domestic form remains robust, and they boast an impressive goalscoring record on home soil. AEK have secured eight wins in eight home matches in all competitions since the start of the season, scoring 3+ goals in seven of those, while conceding only once overall.
On the other side of the pitch, Real Madrid are navigating the new Champions League campaign with their usual swagger, though not without some away difficulties.
Los Blancos have shown they can outscore anyone, but they sometimes make their games unnecessarily difficult. Having to come back from 3-1 against AS Roma is the most recent example.
Nevertheless, Jose Mourinho’s side has been almost flawless since the start of the campaign, with 12 wins in 14 competitive fixtures.
How the bookies view it: Heavy support for Los Blancos
These odds are entirely expected. Real Madrid’s pedigree in this competition heavily skews the market, and bookmakers rarely offer generous prices on Los Blancos against teams outside of Europe's top five leagues.
Real Madrid are currently priced at around 1/4, while AEK Athens are up there at 8/1. You can also back a draw at 6/1.
Recent head-to-head: AEK have never lost to Real Madrid in Greece
There is very little recent modern history between AEK Athens and Real Madrid, but there are some interesting facts from the distant past.
Real Madrid have historically enjoyed their trips to Greece, frequently overpowering Greek sides, but not AEK Athens. The Yellow-Blacks have lost just one of their four H2Hs with Los Blancos, and have also never lost at home (W1, D1).
Players to watch: Diomande improves with every match
While picking an individual goalscorer for AEK is risky against Madrid, backing their midfielders to pick up bookings could be a shout. I’d watch out for Lovro Majer and Razvan Marin, as they have picked up the most cards since the start of the season.
On the other end, Kylian Mbappe is the standard pick, but the odds for him are never good these days, which is normal. With 15 goals in 14 appearances this season, you can always expect him to find the net, especially against weaker and inexperienced opposition.
If you’re looking for value, I’d back Yan Diomande, who has settled in perfectly, and now has four goals and three assists in his last six appearances.
Probable line-ups
AEK Athens: Brignoli, Pilios, Relvas, Moukoudi, Rota, Mario, Marin, Arriaga, Majer, Varga, Jovic
Real Madrid: Courtois, Carreras, Rudiger, Huijsen, Dumfries, Tchouameni, Camavinga, Bellingham, Diomande, Vinicius, Mbappe
Anything else catch the eye?
The overarching narrative here points towards goals. With AEK averaging almost 4 goals in their eight home matches this season, they may have what it takes to score against Real Madrid’s inconsistent defence.
For reference, Los Blancos achieved only three clean sheets in 14 fixtures this season. The Both Teams to Score market combined with a Real Madrid win offers much better value than backing the visitors outright.
Additionally, the Greeks will need to be physical to disrupt Madrid's rhythm, which inevitably leads to attention from the referee. I believe the hosts will pick up some bookings in this clash.
AEK vs Real Madrid Betting Tips & Predictions
Further Reading
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