Crystal Palace begin their first full European campaign in decades on Thursday night when they welcome Fredrikstad to Selhurst Park in the Europa Conference League playoff round. A sold-out crowd in South London will be hoping for a performance that sets the tone for a run in continental football.
Palace qualified by winning the FA Cup last season, their first major trophy, and followed that up by lifting the Community Shield against Liverpool earlier this month. They opened the Premier League campaign with a goalless draw at Chelsea, a result that reflected their organisation under Oliver Glasner. Since his appointment in February 2024, the Austrian coach has reshaped Palace into a side that values defensive control and compact structure.
The turnaround was visible in the run-in last season. Across their final 12 league matches, Palace collected 20 points, the sixth best return in the division. Their underlying numbers matched that progress: 1.51 xPTS per game while restricting opponents to just 1.05 xGA. It was a stretch that underlined Glasner’s growing influence and gave Palace the platform to go on and lift the FA Cup at Wembley.
This summer brought both continuity and speculation. Eberechi Eze remains at the club despite strong interest from Tottenham, while Dean Henderson has firmly established himself as first-choice goalkeeper. Injuries to Matheus Franca and Daichi Kamada reduce depth in midfield, but Glasner can still call on a strong core led by captain Marc Guehi and a balanced front line spearheaded by Jean-Philippe Mateta.
Fredrikstad arrive with confidence after producing one of the shocks of qualifying, eliminating Danish side Midtjylland 5-1 on aggregate in the Europa League. Domestically they finished sixth in last season’s Eliteserien but significantly overperformed their xPTS by nine points. Their 39-goal tally was the lowest in the top half, and this season their metrics are similar: 23 xG and 24.9 xGA from 18 league games.
Thursday’s tie will be a clash of Premier League quality and Glasner’s structure against a Fredrikstad side that has made a habit of punching above its weight.
How the bookies view it: Hosts heavy favourites
Crystal Palace are overwhelming favourites at 1/9, which carries an implied probability of around 90%, underlining the gulf in quality between a Premier League side and a Norwegian club that finished sixth in the Eliteserien. The draw is priced at 9/1 (about 10% chance), while Fredrikstad are huge outsiders at 33/1, giving them only a 3% implied chance of causing an upset at Selhurst Park. In the goals markets, over 2.5 goals is odds-on at 2/5, reflecting an implied probability of roughly 71%, with the expectation that Palace will create enough to score more than once.
Both Teams to Score is available at 9/5, which suggests only a 36% chance that Fredrikstad find the net against Glasner’s defence. The prices point strongly towards a Palace win, but the low both teams to score line highlights doubts about the visitors’ ability to trouble the hosts.
Head to Head: First meeting
This is the first competitive meeting between the two sides
Players to watch: Munoz a constant threat
Daniel Munoz is a bet worth considering in the anytime scorer market when Crystal Palace face Fredrikstad in the Europa Conference League playoff. The Colombian wing-back is not a prolific name, but his record shows consistent attacking output. Last season he played 37 Premier League games, scoring four goals from 37 shots with 14 on target.
In the FA Cup he added two goals in six matches, while also registering an assist in three EFL Cup games. For a defender, those numbers reflect his willingness to get into advanced areas.
Munoz will once again be encouraged to push forward in Oliver Glasner’s 3-4-2-1, where his overlapping runs create an extra threat beyond Palace’s front three. Against opponents like Fredrikstad, who will almost certainly sit deep and defend in numbers, those bursts from wing-back may prove one of the best ways to break through.
At 4/1 in the anytime market, Munoz is priced generously given his track record of getting shots away and chipping in with goals. With Palace expected to dominate territory and the visitors likely to be pinned back, his forward runs make this a wager worthy of serious consideration.
Predicted line-ups
Crystal Palace (3-4-2-1): Henderson; Richards, Lacroix, Guehi; Munoz, Hughes, Wharton, Mitchell; Eze, Sarr; Mateta
Fredrikstad (5-3-2): Thorsen; Molde, Rafn, Owusu, Fredriksen, Woledzi; Sorloekk, Shein, Ohlenschlaeger; Eid, Skogvold
Anything else catch the eye?
Crystal Palace to win and under 3.5 goals looks a strong betting angle for this Conference League playoff tie. Oliver Glasner’s approach since arriving in February 2024 has been built on structure and control, and that profile aligns with a result where Palace come through without the score line running away.
In last season’s Premier League, Palace were rarely involved in high-scoring contests. At Selhurst Park, 53% of their games finished with three goals or fewer, and only four of 19 home fixtures went over four goals. Their attacking volume reflected that measured style: they averaged 11.8 shots per game but generated just 3.9 on target. The system Glasner employs is not one that chases heavy scorelines, but one that keeps Palace in command.
Defensively, that control is evident. Palace faced just 8.5 shots in the box per game last season, ranking them mid-table, but their organisation meant that big chances conceded stayed low. In the FA Cup run, they conceded only two goals across five matches before shutting out Aston Villa 3-0 at Wembley in the semi-final.
Fredrikstad, for all their success in eliminating Midtjylland, are not a team associated with high totals either. In last season’s Eliteserien, only 40% of their matches saw over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in just 40%. They averaged 10.7 shots per game domestically, with fewer than four on target, numbers that underline their modest attacking output.
The clash of Glasner’s controlled Palace with Fredrikstad’s compact, low-scoring profile points firmly to Palace winning while the goal count stays manageable. A 2-0 or 2-1 outcome fits the data best.
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