Croatia welcome Montenegro to Stadion Maksimir in Zagreb on Monday night in World Cup qualifying Group L. It is a meeting of two Balkan neighbours at very different stages of development, with Croatia ranked inside FIFA’s top ten and Montenegro back in 73rd.
The hosts have started the campaign in ruthless style. A 7–0 win in Gibraltar was followed by a 5–1 dismantling of the Czech Republic. Zlatko Dalic’s side look sharp in attack, generating over 12 goals from roughly 6.5 xG across the opening two qualifiers. Their Nations League run earlier in the year showed similar promise, beating France at home and pushing them all the way in a quarterfinal that was eventually lost on penalties. Croatia’s xPTS return over the last year also reflects their consistency, ranking them as one of the best performers in Europe despite group-stage struggles at Euro 2024.
Montenegro, by contrast, have made a mixed start. Wins over Gibraltar and the Faroe Islands were tempered by a 2–0 defeat in Prague and a 2–2 draw at home to Armenia. Their Nations League campaign was poor, finishing bottom of Group B4 with five defeats from six games. The away form is especially concerning: they have failed to score in their last five matches on the road, a run including losses to Belgium, Wales and Turkey.
Squad-wise, Croatia remain built around the enduring class of Luka Modric, supported by Andrej Kramaric and Petar Sucic. Montenegro still rely heavily on veterans Stevan Jovetic and Stefan Savic, with little in the way of new blood to replace them. The gulf in depth and form points firmly towards the home side.
How the bookies view it: Croatia are heavy favourites
Croatia are heavy favourites at 1/4, which gives them an implied win chance of around 80%, while the draw is 5/1 (16.7%) and Montenegro are out at 12/1 (7.7%). The goal markets suggest we are likely to see action, with over 2.5 goals priced at 4/6 (60%), but both teams to score looks less likely at 13/10 (43.5%).
That fits the recent form: Croatia have kept 10 clean sheets in their last 20 home matches, while Montenegro have failed to score in each of their last five away games. The market points firmly to a controlled Croatia win with goals mainly coming from the home side.
Head to Head: First Meeting
This fixture marks the first official meeting between the two nations at senior level.
Players to watch: Get Kramaric onside for a goal
Andrej Kramaric looks an excellent pick in the anytime goal scorer market for Croatia’s clash with Montenegro. He comes into the game in red-hot form, having scored four goals in his last two World Cup qualifiers, including a brace against Gibraltar and another two against the Czech Republic.
His recent data underlines just how effective he has been: across his last five international appearances he has produced twelve shots, with seven on target, averaging almost one goal per ninety minutes. He is Croatia’s most consistent attacking outlet, taking penalties when Modric is not on the pitch and regularly drifting into central positions from attacking midfield.
Montenegro’s defence has been leaky away from home, conceding eight times in their last five trips without keeping a clean sheet before their game against Czech Republic. Against such vulnerable opposition, Kramaric’s sharp finishing and shot volume make him the standout candidate to find the net again.
Predicted line-ups
Croatia (4-2-3-1): Livakovic; Smolcic, Pongracic, Caleta-Car, Sosa; Modric, Sucic; Pasalic, Kramaric, Perisic; Budimi
Montenegro (3-4-2-1): Petkovic; Savic, Vujacic, Sipcic; Vucevic, Jankovic, Kuc, Radunovic; Vukotic, Jovetic; Krstovic
Anything else catch the eye?
Croatia’s recent numbers at home make the win to nil market very appealing. Across their last 20 fixtures in Zagreb, they have conceded only 15 goals, an average of 0.75 per game. Ten of those matches ended with a clean sheet. Against mid to lower-ranked European nations, they have been particularly reliable, shutting out Poland, Armenia, Scotland and North Macedonia in the last two years.
The attacking control also supports this angle. Croatia average over 13 shots per home game in that period, with around five on target. Their expected goals output at home is comfortably above 1.6 per match, while their opponents generate less than 1.0. That balance in chance creation usually leaves visitors with limited opportunities.
Montenegro’s away record tells the other half of the story. Removing the three goals scored against Gibraltar, they have managed just 12 goals in their last 19 away fixtures. That works out to 0.63 per game. In their last five on the road they have drawn a blank every time, losing to Belgium, Iceland, Turkey, Wales and most recently the Czech Republic. The combined xG across those matches was just 2.4, highlighting how few clear chances they created.
They also give up plenty of shots when travelling. In Prague, Montenegro conceded 19 attempts, seven of which were on target. In Cardiff they faced 16 shots, while Belgium racked up 21. When a side allows that volume against nations ranked outside the global top ten, the prospects against Croatia are slim.
With Dalic’s men firing in 12 goals from their first two qualifiers and Montenegro lacking any cutting edge away from home, the win to nil offers strong value. The trends in shots, xG and clean sheets point to another controlled home victory
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