The Champions League play-off second leg between Club Brugge and Rangers takes place this Wednesday night at the Jan Breydel Stadium in Belgium. After a disastrous 3-1 defeat at Ibrox, Rangers arrive in Bruges needing to overturn a two-goal deficit against opponents who have looked sharp both domestically and in Europe.
Russell Martin’s tenure has started under pressure. In nine competitive matches his side have managed only two clean sheets, both in earlier European home legs against Panathinaikos and Viktoria Plzen. Defensive frailties have been exposed time and again, with three summer signings plus on-loan full-back Matthew Meghoma thrown into the back line against Brugge. Their league campaign has also stuttered, with opening draws against Motherwell, Dundee and St Mirren adding to the frustration. In terms of process, Rangers’ possession dominance has not translated into clear chances, with an xG return of 1.26 against Brugge and just one shot on target in that first leg highlighting the lack of end product.
Club Brugge meanwhile are in a confident rhythm. They knocked out RB Salzburg in the previous round, winning both legs, and followed that up with a ruthless performance in Glasgow. Domestically they have begun the new season strongly, winning three of their first four Pro League games and keeping two clean sheets in the process. Their xPTS total of seven from four matches suggests they are slightly ahead of par, and with Hans Vanaken providing leadership in midfield they look settled and consistent.
The contrast between the two clubs is stark. Rangers appear in transition, searching for defensive stability and attacking fluency. Brugge look cohesive, tactically adaptable, and have recent Champions League experience from last season’s run to the round of sixteen.
How the bookies view it: Host favourites but goals also on the agenda
The market has Club Brugge priced at 8/13, which carries an implied probability of about 62%, reflecting their strong position after the 3-1 first-leg win. A draw is 16/5 (24%) while Rangers are 9/2 (18%), underlining how little faith the layers have in a comeback. Over 2.5 goals is 4/6, translating to a 60% chance, and both teams to score is 3/4, or around 57%.
Head to Head: Only two previous meetings
Club Brugge hold the upper hand in their recent European meetings with Rangers, winning once and drawing the other, meaning the Scottish side are yet to claim a victory in this fixture. Both encounters produced over 1.5 goals, with an average of four goals per game, underlining that when these two meet the matches tend to be open and eventful.
Players to watch: Tzolis to capitalise on Rangers hesitant defence
Christos Tzolis looks a strong candidate in the anytime scorer market against Rangers. He has started every game for Club Brugge this season and already produced two goals and three assists from seven appearances, underlining his importance in the attacking third. His underlying data is encouraging too, averaging almost three shots per game with close to one on target. That volume suggests he consistently gets into the right areas rather than relying on low-percentage efforts.
Last season in the Champions League he managed 26 shots and an xG of 2.1 across 12 starts, numbers that point to a player regularly involved in high-level attacking sequences. The finishing output was slightly below expectation, but that can often swing the other way, especially when confidence is high. Rangers’ defensive record also strengthens the case. They have conceded in seven of Russell Martin’s nine games, including three early goals to Brugge in the first leg. With his pace, dribbling and shot volume, Tzolis has a strong chance of finding the net.
Predicted line-ups
Club Brugge (4-2-3-1): Mignolet; Sabbe, Spileers, Mechele, Seys; Onyedika, Stankovic; Forbs, Vanaken, Tzolis; Vermant.
Rangers (4-3-3): Butland; Aarons, Souttar, Djiga, Meghoma; Rothwell, Raskin, Diomande; Gassama, Danilo, Antman.
Anything else catch the eye?
Club Brugge to win and over 1.5 goals appeals strongly in this second leg. The first leg at Ibrox finished 3-1 to the Belgians, and their attacking metrics suggest they can strike again in front of their own fans.
Brugge managed seven shots on target from just ten total attempts in Glasgow. That efficiency speaks to the quality of chances they create when they do get forward. In the Belgian league this season they average 1.65 xG per game and have scored seven goals in their first four matches. Their ability to turn limited entries into dangerous moments is a clear strength.
Rangers, on the other hand, conceded three goals despite allowing Brugge only 16% of possession in the attacking third. That points to a defence that collapses under pressure. In their opening two Scottish Premiership games they conceded against Motherwell, Dundee and St Mirren, sides who averaged under one xG in those matches but still found a way through.
Looking at big chances, Brugge allowed just two across their last three domestic matches, while Rangers have faced seven in their last three outings in all competitions. That difference in defensive reliability suggests the hosts are far better equipped to control the key moments.
With a two-goal lead Brugge don’t need to chase, but their style naturally produces goals. Three of their four league games this season have featured at least two, and they have scored multiple goals in four of their last six matches in Europe. Rangers must open up in search of a miracle, which should give Brugge further opportunities to punish them.
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