Chelsea face Liverpool at Stamford Bridge on Saturday evening in a Premier League fixture that always attracts attention. The 17:30 kick-off is live on Sky Sports with Anthony Taylor appointed as referee.
Chelsea’s domestic campaign has been mixed, with a record of W2-D2-L2 from their opening six. The numbers reflect a side still searching for consistency. Their xPTS total of 8.98 is broadly aligned with the eight points collected, while their non-penalty xG return of 1.80 per game ranks among the league’s stronger attacking sides.
Defensively, the picture is less convincing: they are allowing 1.53 NPxGA per match and have already conceded 11 goals. In Europe, Chelsea edged past Benfica 1-0 on Tuesday night to record their first Champions League win of the League stage, but the underlying xG tally of 0.93 to 0.85 showed how fine the margins were.
Liverpool arrive as one of the early leaders, with five wins from six in the Premier League. They have delivered 10.38 xPTS, the third highest in the division, and are generating 1.66 NPxG per match. Their attack remains one of the most reliable in the league, having scored in each of their last 40 domestic games.
However, their form has dipped over the last week, beaten 2-1 by Crystal Palace before a 1-0 loss away to Galatasaray in the Champions League. At the back they remain open, conceding 1.07 NPxGA on average, and have allowed multiple big chances in recent defeats.
The wider storylines add to the intrigue. Chelsea are still bedding in new signings and adjusting their midfield structure, while Liverpool are reshaping their forward line following key departures. Both teams rank top six for shots and big chances created but also give up plenty, suggesting another high-event contest. Discipline could also be a theme, with both sides heavily involved in cards this season.
How the bookies view it: Visitors slight favourites
Chelsea are priced at 39/20 (33.9% implied probability) to win at Stamford Bridge, with the draw at 14/5 (26.3%) and Liverpool slight favourites at 13/10 (43.5%).
The goals markets are also tight, with over 2.5 goals trading at 3/5 (62.5%) and both teams to score at 1/2 (66.7%), underlining the expectation that chances will arrive at both ends in what is usually a fiercely contested fixture.
Head to Head: Liverpool edge it
Across the last 20 meetings in all competitions, Liverpool and Chelsea have been almost inseparable. Liverpool have six wins, Chelsea four, and 10 have ended level. Goals have been tight with 25 for Liverpool and 20 for Chelsea, giving an average of just 2.25 per game.
Where the rivalry has been particularly consistent is in discipline. Liverpool have averaged 1.9 cards per game and Chelsea 1.6, reflecting the physical edge and intensity that comes whenever these two meet. That includes several recent high-profile matches with multiple bookings, even when goals have been scarce.
Recent history shows just how balanced this fixture can be. Four of the last nine meetings have ended 0-0, including both domestic cup finals in 2022, while three others finished 1-1. Liverpool’s biggest result in the modern stretch was the 4-1 win at Anfield in January 2024, while Chelsea’s best came in March 2021 with a 1-0 victory at Anfield.
The most recent meeting, in May 2025, saw Chelsea win 3-1 at Stamford Bridge, showing Enzo Maresca’s side can still cause damage despite Liverpool’s overall edge.
Players to watch: xxx
Moises Caicedo looks a strong candidate to be fouled at least twice against Liverpool. He has already drawn 12 fouls across six Premier League starts, including two or more in four of his six games.
His role in Chelsea’s midfield makes him the key link between defence and attack, and opponents have consistently targeted him when trying to disrupt Chelsea’s rhythm.
Under Arne Slot, Liverpool’s pressing has been even more coordinated and aggressive than under Klopp. Midfielders like Dominik Szoboszlai, Ryan Gravenberch, and Curtis Jones all rank high for defensive pressures, and Liverpool’s central areas remain one of the busiest zones for fouls committed.
Caicedo will see plenty of the ball in the buildup, and with Liverpool averaging over 12 fouls per game, the angles line up. Add in that Anthony Taylor is in charge who is a referee who has overseen games averaging almost 20 fouls and 2.8 cards this season and the expectation is for midfield duels to be tightly officiated.
Predicted line-ups
Chelsea (4-2-3-1): Sanchez; Gusto, Hato, Badiashile, Cucurella; Caicedo, Fernandez; Neto, Estevao, Garnacho; Pedro.
Liverpool (4-2-3-1): Alisson; Frimpong, Konate, van Dijk, Kerkez; Gravenberch, Jones; Szoboszlai, Wirtz, Gakpo; Isak.
Anything else catch the eye?
The profile of this game makes the combination of both sides carded, Chelsea over one card, Liverpool to score and Liverpool over two corners a strong selection.
Starting with discipline, Chelsea are the most heavily booked team in the league. They average 3.17 cards per game and have collected at least two in every Premier League fixture so far. Their opponents average 2.67 against them, underlining how chaotic their matches can be. Liverpool have been booked in all six league outings, with a mean of 2.17 per game. That means “both teams carded” and Chelsea over one card both carry not only strong averages but a 100% strike rate.
Liverpool’s scoring power is equally reliable. Despite back-to-back defeats, beaten 2-1 by Crystal Palace and 1-0 at Galatasaray in the Champions League, they have still scored in 40 straight Premier League matches. Their shot profile explains why: they average 16.7 attempts and 4.3 on target per game, figures that rank inside the league’s top three. Chelsea’s defence, meanwhile, has conceded 11 goals already and ranks in the bottom half for big chances allowed.
Corners strengthen the bet. Liverpool average 5.67 won per game, landing three or more in five of six fixtures. The only miss was at Newcastle, when they managed just one. Chelsea allow an average of five corners against per game, conceding four or more in five of six matches. The overlap between what Liverpool create and what Chelsea allow gives Liverpool 3+ corners strong statistical backing.
Underlying xPTS also support Liverpool having the upper hand. They sit on 10.38 xPTS, compared to Chelsea’s 8.98, reflecting a greater ability to turn chances into results. Put together, the numbers create a compelling case for this multi-leg selection at Stamford Bridge.
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