Stamford Bridge plays host to Chelsea against Benfica in the Champions League league phase on Tuesday night, a clash between two clubs who began the competition with opening defeats.
Chelsea fell 3-1 away to Bayern Munich while Benfica slipped 3-2 at home to Qarabag, meaning both will be under pressure to get points on the board.
Enzo Maresca’s Chelsea side remain a work in progress. The Blues have won only three of their opening eight matches in all competitions, drawing two and losing three. Their underlying metrics are mixed: an xPTS of 8.7 from the Premier League suggests they are not underperforming drastically, but defensive frailty is clear. They have conceded 22 cards already this season and only two clean sheets, highlighting discipline and defensive issues. Maresca has been tasked with implementing a possession-heavy style, yet results remain inconsistent.
Benfica, meanwhile, are now led by Jose Mourinho, who returned to Portugal over the summer. They arrive in London with confidence after a strong domestic run, sitting near the top of Liga Portugal and unbeaten away in the league. Their xPTS of 13.2 from six domestic matches suggests their points return is sustainable, while an attacking output of 19 goals in seven league games highlights their cutting edge. The problem has been in Europe, where Benfica have now lost four of their last five Champions League fixtures, including heavy away defeats at Barcelona and Bayern last season.
Still, Benfica’s away record is competitive: 10 wins in their last 20 European trips underline their ability to perform outside Lisbon. Mourinho’s return to England adds further intrigue, as he faces a Chelsea club where he won multiple Premier League titles. Both sides need a result, and that pressure could bring an intense, tactical contest in west London.
How the bookies view it: Blues favourites
Chelsea are priced at 3/5 to win at Stamford Bridge, which implies a 62.5% chance of victory, while the draw is 33/10 (23.3%) and Benfica are 9/2 outsiders (18.2%). The market also expects goals, with Over 2.5 trading at 13/20 (60.6% implied) and Both Teams to Score at 8/11 (57.9%).
Those numbers reflect Chelsea’s poor defensive record this season, with just two clean sheets in eight matches, and Benfica’s consistency in finding the net away in Europe, where they have scored in 17 of their last 20 trips.
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Head to Head: Chelsea unbeaten
Chelsea and Benfica have met three times in competitive action, with the Blues unbeaten across those fixtures. Their most recent encounter came in the 2025 Club World Cup, finishing 1-1 in a fifth-place playoff. The other two meetings were in the 2011/12 Champions League quarter-finals, where Chelsea won both legs, 1-0 in Lisbon and 2-1 at Stamford Bridge, on their way to lifting the trophy. That leaves Benfica still searching for their first victory against Chelsea in Europe.
Players to watch: Cucurella to struggle
Marc Cucurella looks a strong candidate in the fouls market ahead of Chelsea’s clash with Benfica. The left-back has been first choice under Enzo Maresca this season, starting 11 of the club’s 13 matches, and his defensive numbers highlight how busy he has been. Cucurella has already committed 22 fouls in just over 1,000 minutes, averaging two per 90, and he has collected three yellow cards along the way.
Importantly, he comes into this fixture on a run of three consecutive games where he has made at least two fouls, underlining both his aggressive style and the amount of defending Chelsea have been forced into. Benfica’s wide options rank highly for dribbles attempted and fouls drawn, which should keep Cucurella engaged in direct one-on-one duels. With Benfica also enjoying plenty of attacking width in Europe, the data supports Cucurella to commit 2+ fouls again.
Predicted line-ups
Chelsea (4-2-3-1): Sanchez, James, Chalobah, Hato, Cucurella, Santos, Caicedo, Estevao, Fernandez, Neto, Joao Pedro
Benfica (4-2-3-1): Trubin, Dedic, Silva, Otamendi, Dahl, Aursnes, Rios, Lukebakio, Sudakov, Schjelderup, Pavlidis
Anything else catch the eye?
The numbers around this match point strongly toward goals and cards. Chelsea have conceded in six of their last seven matches in all competitions and average just under 2.0 xGA per game. They generate chances themselves 13.4 xG from eight league games but their defensive issues mean they are rarely secure. Both teams have scored in five of their last six fixtures, and their Champions League opener in Munich featured four goals.
Benfica’s attacking output makes both teams to score attractive. They have scored in 17 of their last 20 away European matches, with only Bayern, Barcelona and Inter shutting them out. In their last 10 away games in Europe, they have averaged 1.6 xG, while conceding 1.4 xG. Mourinho’s side have scored in seven of their last eight across all competitions, and with Chelsea keeping only two clean sheets this season, it is hard to see either side blanking.
The card markets look equally strong. Chelsea have collected 22 cards in eight matches this term, averaging 2.75 per game, while their opponents are averaging 3.0. Benfica are even more reliable: they have picked up 2+ cards in nine of their last 10 away Champions League fixtures, averaging 2.08. Both teams over one card is well backed by these trends.
Over four cards overall is also a value angle. Chelsea matches are averaging 5.75 cards this season, Benfica’s last 15 away in Europe are averaging 4.87, and referee Daniel Siebert has shown 5.35 cards per game in his last 20 Champions League appointments. With both sides needing points and tactical fouls almost certain, this looks primed for a high-card outcome.
Goals and cards should define the night, making both teams to score with both teams a card, and then over four cards the two standout plays.
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