Burnley welcome Sunderland to Turf Moor on Saturday in the Premier League, with both clubs looking to make early statements in the season. Burnley are back in the top flight under Scott Parker and enter this game having lost 3-0 at Tottenham on the opening weekend. Sunderland, meanwhile, returned to the Premier League in style with a 3-0 win over West Ham at the Stadium of Light.
Burnley’s strength last year came from their incredible home record. They were unbeaten in 23 Championship games at Turf Moor, winning 14 and drawing 9, and conceded just 8 goals. However, the underlying data was less emphatic. Their xPTS at home was 36.75 compared to 51 points actually collected, showing an overperformance of 14.25. Their home xG was 1.3 per game, which is modest compared to Leeds and Coventry, and suggests they relied on efficiency and game management.
Sunderland, by contrast, were one of the league’s strongest away sides last season, collecting 33 points, the forth best record, though their xPTS of 29.69 placed them sixth. They averaged 1.0 goal per away game but also conceded 1.13, highlighting their tendency to be involved in tight contests. At home last weekend they showed clinical edge, scoring three times against West Ham despite only having 37% possession. Importantly, they created the game’s two big chances and converted them both, while limiting West Ham to low-quality shots.
Burnley have lost key figures since promotion, with captain Josh Brownhill departing on a free and James Trafford returning to Manchester City. Their attack still looks light, with Lyle Foster leading the line but little depth beyond him. Sunderland, in contrast, have added Premier League experience through Granit Xhaka and Reinildo Mandava, alongside young talents like Chemsdine Talbi and Noah Sadiki. That mix of youthful energy and seasoned quality gives them a different dimension this season.
With Burnley’s Turf Moor record and Sunderland’s away resilience, this promises to be a tight and intriguing contest.
How the bookies view it: Host slight favourites
Burnley are priced at 132/100 to win, which carries an implied probability of around 43%, with the draw at 23/10 (30%) and Sunderland at 5/2 (29%). That reflects Burnley’s formidable unbeaten home record last season, though as their defeat at Tottenham showed, their attacking threat at Premier League level is still questionable.
Sunderland, meanwhile, proved in their 3-0 victory over West Ham that they can concede possession yet still create and take the better chances, making their price look competitive given their solid away profile from last season. In the goals markets, over 2.5 goals is 11/8 (42%) and Both teams to score is evens (50%).
Head to Head: Sunderland edge it
The head-to-head record between Burnley and Sunderland leans slightly in Sunderland’s favour. Across 11 meetings since 2014, Burnley have won three, there have been three draws, and Sunderland have claimed five victories. The overall goal difference is still narrow, with Burnley scoring 11 and Sunderland nine, an average of 1.82 goals per match. Recent history has tended to be cagey: the last three Championship clashes have all seen Burnley fail to score, including two 0-0 draws at Turf Moor in March 2023 and January 2025, while Sunderland edged the most recent meeting 1-0 at the Stadium of Light in August 2024.
Burnley’s last win over Sunderland came in October 2022, a 4-2 away victory in the Championship. In cup competitions, Sunderland eliminated Burnley from the League Cup in 2019, while Burnley knocked Sunderland out of the FA Cup in 2017 after a replay. Overall, Sunderland have had the upper hand in recent years, with five of the last seven meetings ending in their favour or as draws, and several of those matches being low-scoring affairs.
Players to watch: Back Ballard
Dan Ballard to have at least one shot at 21/20 looks an outstanding value play, particularly when the next best price is just 4/6 with most other firms. The Sunderland centre-back has a clear history of being a set-piece threat, and the numbers back it up. Last season he attempted 17 shots in 23 appearances, landing seven on target and scoring three goals, all from dead-ball situations. That means he averaged a shot roughly every 84 minutes, and he registered at least one attempt in 65% of his games.
Already in the Premier League this season he’s carried that threat forward, scoring in the opening weekend against West Ham with one of four efforts. For a defender, that kind of volume is notable, and it highlights the way Sunderland use him aggressively in attacking set plays. Burnley conceded heavily from corners in their defeat at Tottenham, and Ballard will again be a key target in the box. With his track record, 21/20 for a single shot looks overpriced compared to the wider market.
Predicted line-ups
Burnley (5-4-1): Dubravka; Walker, Ekdal, Esteve, Hartman, Sonne; Mejbri, Cullen, Laurent, Anthony; Foster
Sunderland (4-3-3): Roefs; Hume, Seelt, Ballard, Mandava; Xhaka, Diarra, Sadiki; Talbi, Mayenda, Adingra
Anything else catch the eye?
Sunderland double chance combined with under four goals looks a smart way into this fixture. Turf Moor may have been a fortress for Burnley in the Championship, but their results were built on defensive resilience rather than attacking power. They averaged just 1.3 xG per home game last season and created only 3.89 shots on target per match. Against Tottenham in their opener they had 14 attempts but only one on target, underlining the lack of cutting edge in the final third.
Sunderland showed in their 3-0 win over West Ham that they can frustrate stronger opponents while still carving out decisive openings. Despite having only 37% of the ball, they created the game’s two big chances, scored three times and produced 1.64 xGOT compared to West Ham’s 0.37. That efficiency in turning limited opportunities into high-quality shots makes them well suited to away days in the Premier League.
Defensively, Sunderland kept West Ham to speculative efforts, forcing them into 28 touches in the box without a single big chance created. Burnley had similar struggles at Spurs, conceding 2.32 xG and four shots on target while rarely looking like scoring themselves.
With Sunderland’s ability to make tight matches competitive and Burnley’s attacking limitations, the away side avoiding defeat is realistic. At the same time, both sides’ underlying profiles point away from a goal-heavy game. Sunderland’s away matches in the Championship averaged just 2.26 xG combined, while Burnley’s home xGA last season was 0.68. Both managers favour controlled, structured football over chaos.
Given the numbers, Sunderland double chance and under four match goals combines two logical angles: the visitors’ resilience and Burnley’s struggles in attack. It’s a bet well supported by both teams’ recent statistical trends.
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