Burnley welcome champions Liverpool to Turf Moor in Sunday’s Premier League clash, looking to build on a spirited if inconsistent start under Scott Parker.
Burnley sit on three points from their opening three matches, having been heavily beaten at Tottenham, responded with a home win over Sunderland, and then pushed Manchester United close in a 3-2 defeat at Old Trafford. Their record shows four goals scored and six conceded, with defensive issues standing out.
They have lost all three of their xG battles this season, sit bottom for shots in the box conceded, and have the division’s lowest SiB ratio at just 33.3%. On the ball, they average 1.07 non-penalty xG per game, leaving them with one of the weakest differentials in the league. Parker has spoken about being encouraged by aspects of the performances, but Burnley’s openness is clear.
Liverpool arrive in Lancashire with maximum points from their opening three games, despite not always finding top rhythm. They opened with a 4-2 win at home to Bournemouth, having let a 2-0 lead slip before reasserting themselves late on. That was followed by a dramatic 3-2 victory at Newcastle, secured with a stoppage-time winner, and a 1-0 triumph over Arsenal courtesy of Dominik Szoboszlai’s free-kick.
Their nine points reflect resilience and depth, and the underlying data supports their position near the top. The Reds have collected 4.57 xPTS, sitting them in seventh place, they rank third in shots on target ratio (73.9%), and have conceded no big chances across their three matches.
Arne Slot’s side have also been boosted by the bedding-in of big summer signings Florian Wirtz, Hugo Ekitike and Alexander Isak, alongside the growing influence of Szoboszlai. Liverpool’s defence looks settled although open at transition, and their attack continues to produce high-quality chances.
With Burnley still vulnerable and Liverpool showing a knack for late winners, this shapes as a demanding afternoon for the hosts at Turf Moor.
How the bookies view it: Liverpool heavy favourites
Liverpool are heavy favourites at 4/11 (73% implied probability) to take all three points at Turf Moor, with the draw priced at 23/5 (18%) and Burnley big outsiders at 17/2 (11%).
The goals markets point towards an open game. Over 2.5 goals is available at 11/20 (65% implied probability), reflecting Liverpool’s attacking strength and Burnley’s vulnerability at the back. Both teams to score is set at 10/11 (52%), suggesting the market is split on whether Parker’s side can find the net against one of the league’s strongest defences.
Head to Head: The Reds dominate
Liverpool have dominated recent meetings with Burnley, winning 12 of the last 16 encounters and scoring 30 goals to Burnley’s 11 in that stretch. Burnley’s record includes just two victories and two draws, with their most recent success coming at Anfield in January 2021. Since then, Liverpool have taken six of the last seven games, keeping five clean sheets and rarely looking troubled.
At Turf Moor, the pattern has been much the same, with Burnley’s last home win over the Reds coming back in August 2016. In most of these fixtures Burnley have struggled to score, managing more than one goal only twice across the 16 matches. With such a lopsided head-to-head record and Liverpool arriving in strong form, the historical trends strongly support another Liverpool victory, and likely with goals, given how regularly they have controlled this fixture in recent years.
Players to watch: Gakpo again
Cody Gakpo stands out in the player markets for Liverpool’s visit to Burnley, with 2+ shots and 2+ fouls won shaping up as a strong combination bet.
The Dutch forward has always been reliable for shot volume when starting in the Premier League. Last season he averaged just over two efforts per game and cleared this line in 71% of his starts, finding the target 20 times from 45 attempts. That trend has continued into the new campaign, with six shots registered across his first three outings.
What makes the angle stronger is his ability to draw fouls. In 2024/25 he was fouled 24 times in 20 league starts a steady return but this season he has already been fouled 10 times in three matches, averaging 3.3 per game. Playing out wide with the ability to drift inside, he is directly engaging defenders and forcing them into contact.
Against a Burnley side prone to tactical fouls when under pressure, Gakpo looks well placed to hit both lines. This can be backed at 10/11 with Skybet.
Predicted line-ups
Burnley (4-2-3-1): Duravka, Walker, Ekdal, Esteve, Hartman, Cullen, Ugochukwu, Larsen, Mejbri, Anthony, Foster
Liverpool (4-2-3-1): Alisson, Szoboszlai, Konate, Van Dijk, Kerkez, Gravenberch, Mac Allister, Salah, Wirtz, Gakpo, Ekitike
Anything else catch the eye?
The strongest angle for this fixture lies in combining a Liverpool win with over 2.5 goals. Both recent results and the underlying data point towards goals and away dominance.
Burnley’s matches have been consistently open. Their three league games have produced 11 goals in total, all of them clearing the 2.5 line. Defensively, they are conceding the most shots in the box in the league, averaging 10 per match, while their overall shots-in-box ratio of 33.3% is the lowest in the division. They have also given up 4.33 shots on target per game. Those numbers suggest Burnley will continue to offer opportunities in dangerous areas, and Liverpool are among the last sides you want to give those chances to.
Liverpool’s attacking data backs up their ability to capitalise. They are averaging 5.67 shots on target per game, the highest in the Premier League, with a shots-on-target ratio of 73.9%. They have already scored eight times across three games, creating six big chances in the process. Importantly, when Liverpool win, the score line tends to carry goals: they beat Bournemouth 4-2, won 3-2 away at Newcastle, and then edged Arsenal 1-0 in a tighter contest.
Another supporting stat is Liverpool’s total match xG. Their games have averaged 2.23 non-penalty xG combined, showing the consistent creation of opportunities. Burnley’s own attack has managed to score in two of their three fixtures and created four goals already, meaning they are not entirely toothless, which further supports the chance of the total goals line being covered.
With Liverpool’s firepower, Burnley’s defensive openness, and a trend of high event matches on both sides, Liverpool to win and over 2.5 goals combines safety with strong statistical backing.
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