The new Premier League season gets underway at the Amex Stadium on Saturday when Brighton & Hove Albion host Fulham. Fabian Hurzeler begins his second year in charge of Brighton after guiding them to eighth place in 2024/25, the club’s second-best top-flight finish. The German’s debut season included statement wins over Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea, though also the occasional collapse, such as a 7-0 loss to Nottingham Forest.
Brighton’s home record last term read W8-D8-L3, returning 32 points, with underlying data showing a mid-table xPTS return of 29.00. They averaged 1.50 xG and 1.32 xGA at home, with a positive shots-in-the-box ratio of 53.6%. The summer has seen key departures, with Joao Pedro joining Chelsea in a £60m deal and Simon Adingra moving to Sunderland. That income has funded arrivals including Maxim De Cuyper, Tom Watson, Charalampos Kostoulas and Diego Coppola, adding both youth and defensive depth.
Fulham head into the campaign after finishing 11th, falling just short of the European picture. Marco Silva’s side impressed on the road, collecting 28 points away with a top six level xPTS of 28.69. They averaged 1.30 xG and 1.15 xGA per away match, with a positive shots-in-the-box differential of +1.00. The back line, led by Calvin Bassey and Joachim Andersen, is one of the most stable units in the league, while Bernd Leno remains a key figure in goal. The midfield options are settled, with Sander Berge, Alex Iwobi and Andreas Pereira all retained, but more attacking firepower is required, with Raul Jimenez again leading the line after hitting 12 league goals last term.
With both sides blending stability and attacking quality, and having added selectively in the transfer window, this opener offers a good early-season test for two clubs aiming to edge closer to the European places.
How the bookies view it: Host favourites
Brighton are 19/20 to open with a win at the Amex, which implies a 51% chance. The draw is 11/4, giving it a 27% chance, while Fulham are 3/1, implying 25%. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 10/13, equating to a 56% chance, and both teams to score is 4/6, which implies a 60% chance.
Head to Head: Seagulls strong at home
Across the last 20 meetings in all competitions, Fulham edge the head-to-head with 10 wins to Brighton’s eight, with just two draws. The fixture has often been lively, with 12 of those 20 games producing over 2.5 goals and 11 seeing both teams score. When both trends hit together, it has typically been in the more open contests, such as Fulham’s 4-2 win in January 2019 and Brighton’s 5-0 home victory in April 2016.
The Amex has generally been a good venue for goals in this match-up. Of the last 10 meetings hosted by Brighton, seven have seen both teams to score and six have cleared the over 2.5 goal line. Brighton have won six of those home games, with Fulham taking three victories and just one ending level. That includes Brighton’s most recent home success in March 2025, a 2-1 win that delivered both teams to score and over 2.5 goals.
The rarity of draws, only four in 20, combined with the frequency of games producing multiple goals makes this a historically decisive and attack-friendly fixture. Fulham have shown they can get results on the south coast, but Brighton’s home record suggests they more often come out on top when the goals start flowing.
Players to watch: Raul to battle van Hecke
Jan Paul van Hecke’s foul record points to value in both the 1+ and 2+ fouls markets when Brighton host Fulham. Across last season’s Premier League campaign, the Brighton centre-back committed at least one foul in eight of his 16 home appearances a 50% hit rate. His average at the Amex was 0.81 fouls per match, higher than his overall season rate, which suggests he was more proactive in challenges when Brighton played with a higher defensive line at home.
What makes this fixture particularly interesting is his history against Fulham. In both league meetings last season, van Hecke gave away exactly two fouls, home and away. That’s 100% success for both the 1+ and 2+ foul lines in this match-up. Fulham’s style plays a part as they averaged over eight shots in the box per away game and regularly pushed central runners into the final third, forcing defenders into body-to-body duels.
He is likely to be up against Raul Jimenez, who was fouled 41 times in 38 games last season. When Fulham travelled to Brighton last season, Jimenez was fouled twice, underlining how his physical hold-up play can draw challenges from centre-backs.
Fulham’s likely front line of Jimenez, Wilson and Iwobi can all draw fouls through physical play and movement off the ball, with Jimenez in particular willing to pin defenders in advanced positions. For 1+ fouls, the numbers point to a solid chance of landing, while the repeat history against Fulham adds weight to the 2+ fouls option as a higher-odds play.
Predicted line-ups
Brighton (4-2-3-1): Verbruggen, Wieffer, van Hecke, Dunk, De Cuyper, Baleba, O’Riley, Minteh, Georginio, Mitoma, Sima
Fulham (4-2-3-1): Leno, Tete, Andersen, Bassey, Sessegnon, Berge, Lukic, Wilson, King, Iwobi, Amissah
Anything else catch the eye?
Last season’s numbers suggest that goals are a strong expectation when Brighton and Fulham meet at the Amex. Brighton home games produced an average total xG of 2.82, with the Seagulls creating 8.53 shots in the box per match while allowing 7.37 in return. Their attacking intent meant they forced 4.7 shots on target per game at home, but defensive lapses kept games open.
Fulham’s away profile underlines the potential for a high-scoring encounter. They were in the top half for away goals scored, averaging 1.42 per game on the road, and posted a total away xG sum of 2.45. Silva’s team managed 8.42 shots in the box per away fixture, ranking among the better travelling sides for chance creation, but also allowed 7.42 shots in the box, meaning their games often featured trading chances.
Big chance creation is another key indicator. Across the 2024/25 campaign, both sides averaged more big chances for than against, yet neither ranked high for clean sheet rates with Brighton 26% at home, Fulham 16% away, a combination that typically pushes matches towards three or more goals.
The set-piece threat adds another angle. Brighton’s delivery from wide areas and Fulham’s aerial presence both contributed to above-average set-piece xG last season. When both teams are capable of scoring in multiple ways, variance in match flow often favours overs.
With each side possessing proven Premier League scorers and stylistic tendencies that prioritise attack over caution, the statistical profile points firmly toward a game with three or more goals. Over 2.5 goals is backed by both xG trends and shot data, making it a strong play in this fixture.
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