The Premier League weekend begins on Saturday lunchtime as Brentford welcome Manchester United to the Gtech Community Stadium.
It is a meeting of two sides still finding their feet under relatively new management, with Keith Andrews looking to steady Brentford and Ruben Amorim trying to turn United’s flashes of quality into consistency.
Andrews has overseen seven matches in all competitions, returning two wins, two draws, and three defeats. His side have rarely looked watertight, with both teams scoring in five of those games. In the Premier League, Brentford’s record stands at W1-D1-L3 under his tenure.
The only clean sheet came against Aston Villa, who have only found the net once this season, while their other shutout was in the League Cup against Bournemouth. Brentford’s xPTS tally sits below their actual points return, underlining how performances haven’t always matched results.
Manchester United’s away form under Amorim has been a sticking point. Their record on the road reads W3-D5-L8, with those victories coming against Manchester City, Fulham, and Leicester. While those wins carry weight, the broader trend is concerning: United have conceded in 14 of those 16 away games. xG data shows they are giving up good chances too often, and their inability to shut down games is reflected in the table.
Team news also plays a part. United remain without Lisandro Martinez and Diogo Dalot, while Casemiro is suspended following his red card against Chelsea. For Brentford, Gustavo Nunes and Paris Maghoma are still short of fitness, leaving Andrews to rely on familiar attacking outlets.
With both sides short of defensive security and keen to impose themselves in attack, Saturday’s early kick-off sets up as a fascinating clash. The metrics point towards goals, but the pressure is also on for points particularly with both managers under scrutiny in the early weeks of their respective reigns.
How the bookies view it: Red Devils favourites for the win
Brentford are 12/5 (29%) to claim the win, with the draw at 29/10 (26%) and Manchester United 11/10 (48%) favourites. Goals are expected, with over 2.5 goals priced at 4/6 (60%) and both teams to score at 8/13 (62%).
Head to Head: Utd Utd edge it
Manchester United have had the better of recent meetings with Brentford, winning five of the last nine encounters. Brentford have managed two victories, including a famous 4-0 win in August 2022 and last season’s 4-3 thriller at home, while two games ended level. United’s wins have often been narrow, with four of their five victories coming by a single-goal margin.
Brentford’s success has generally come on home soil, where they have shown they can trouble United. Across those nine matches, United scored 17 times and conceded 14, underlining how competitive this fixture has been.
Players to watch: Get behind Brentford tackles
Backing both Kevin Schade and Yehor Yarmoliuk to record 2+ tackles each against Manchester United looks a strong angle given their early-season numbers and the likely game script.
Schade has quietly been one of Brentford’s most energetic pressers. Although primarily a forward, he’s shown real defensive involvement, attempting 10 tackles across five games, winning three. Importantly, he has hit two or more tackles in three of those matches, including recent efforts against Chelsea and Fulham.
His role as part of a hardworking front two means he is tasked with pressing from the front and tracking back into wide areas, where United’s full-backs and wide midfielders try to progress the ball. That should keep him active defensively again.
Yarmoliuk is Brentford’s main ball-winner in midfield. In 438 minutes this season, he has attempted 11 tackles and won seven, averaging 2.2 tackles won per 90. He has reached at least two tackles in four of five matches, with a standout five-attempt, three-success display against Aston Villa.
With United expected to dominate possession phases and push centrally through Fernandes and Ugarte, Yarmoliuk should have ample opportunity to meet his line.
The pairing both clearing 2 tackles looks well supported by the data.
Predicted line-ups
Brentford (5-3-2): Kelleher, Kayode, Van den Berg, Pinnock, Collins, Lewis-Potter, Henderson, Yarmoliuk, Damsgaard, Schade, Thiago
Manchester United (3-4-3): Bayindir, Mazraoui, De Ligt, Maguire, Shaw, Dorgu, Ugarte, Fernandes, Cunha, Mbeumo, Sesko
Anything else catch the eye?
The data around Brentford and Manchester United points firmly towards goals on Saturday. Both teams arrive with defences that are conceding far too often and attacks that still carry threat.
United’s recent away profile under Amorim highlights their issues. They have allowed an average of 9.2 shots inside the box per game across the last four road fixtures, conceding 3.0 big chances on average. Their opponents are regularly getting into dangerous areas, and with both teams to score landing in eight of their last 16 away games, it’s clear they struggle to keep sides quiet.
Brentford under Keith Andrews have been equally open. In five Premier League matches since his appointment, both teams have scored in four and four have gone over 2.5 goals. The Bees are conceding 4.8 shots on target per game under Andrews in the league, while creating 7.4 shots inside the box themselves. That balance shows why matches have been stretched and full of action.
Big chance numbers reinforce the case. United have conceded seven big chances in their last four games, while creating seven themselves. Brentford are averaging three big chances for every league match under Andrews but also allowing the same number at the other end. That symmetry is exactly the type of profile that encourages both teams to score and high goal counts.
xPTS data also shows neither side is overperforming defensively. Brentford have picked up fewer points than their performances suggest, largely due to lapses at the back, while United’s poor away ratio is explained by the volume of chances they concede.
Put together, the evidence suggests clean sheets are unlikely. With both managers encouraging front-foot football and neither team showing control at the back, the combination of both teams to score and over 2.5 goals looks the logical betting angle.
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