Brentford host Manchester City in the Premier League on Sunday afternoon, with kick-off set for 16:30 at the Gtech Community Stadium. Darren England will referee the match, live on Sky Sports.
Brentford come into the weekend in 13th place after taking seven points from their opening six games. They produced their standout result of the campaign last week, beating Manchester United 3-1, a much-needed lift after consecutive defeats. Their underlying numbers suggest a mid-table side: 7.88 xPTS reflects exactly where they sit, while their non-penalty xG of 1.21 per match is offset by an NPxGA of 1.23. At home, they remain unbeaten with two wins and a draw, creating an environment that has often troubled bigger sides. However, their defensive record remains patchy, conceding nine big chances already, more than they have created.
Manchester City arrive in seventh but showed signs of reasserting themselves with a commanding 5-1 win against Burnley last weekend. It was a performance underpinned by their strengths in attack: 14 goals in six matches, supported by 1.43 NPxG per game, while conceding just six. Their xPTS total of 9.84 places them inside the top four by underlying performance, hinting that their current league standing is slightly misleading.
City’s away form has been less convincing, with one win, one draw and one defeat on the road, but their metrics remain strong. They have conceded only three big chances away from home and continue to restrict opponents’ shot volume. Brentford, meanwhile, average 4.17 corners conceded per game and 1.83 cards, figures that suggest City will have territory and control.
With Brentford unbeaten at home and City still finding consistency away, the game has intrigue. Both clubs are competing with different ambitions, but the data suggests City will dominate the ball, leaving Brentford reliant on counter-attacks and set pieces to threaten.
How the bookies view it: City favourites
Manchester City travel to Brentford on Sunday as 13/20 favourites (implied probability 60.6%) to take all three points. The Bees are priced at 4/1 (20%) with the draw at 7/2 (22.2%).
The goals markets also point strongly towards action. Over 2.5 goals is trading at 4/7 (63.6%), while Both Teams to Score is also 13/20 (60.6%). That aligns with Brentford’s record of conceding 11 goals in their opening six games, alongside City scoring 14.
The market clearly expects City’s attack to have enough to break through, but also gives Brentford a fair chance of contributing given their unbeaten home record and ability to score against top-six opposition.
Head to Head: City strong record
Manchester City and Brentford have met eight times in the Premier League since 2021, with City winning five, Brentford taking two and one ending level. City lead the scoring 12-7 across those games, with six of the eight producing over 2.5 goals. Brentford, however, have caused problems in recent seasons, famously winning 2-1 at the Etihad in November 2022 and edging a 1-0 victory at home in May 2023.
More recently, City have reasserted control, unbeaten in the last four meetings and scoring at least twice in three of them. Cards have generally been modest in this fixture, with Brentford averaging 0.88 and City 1.50, though with Darren England refereeing and averaging just over four yellows per game, there is scope for discipline to play more of a role this time.
Players to watch: Haaland to score again
Erling Haaland continues to churn out numbers that keep him front and centre in any betting market. He now has 10 goals in 10 games this season after scoring again in midweek against Monaco in the Champions League, extending his streak of finding the net in both domestic and European competition.
In the Premier League he has scored nine in six matches, adding an assist along the way, with his record boosted by braces against Wolves, Manchester United and Burnley. Across all competitions he has attempted 46 shots, 23 on target, which works out at over 2.3 SoT per match. That consistency is reflected in his returns: he has registered at least one shot on target in every game this season and has scored in six of his last seven.
The underlying data reinforces the case. Haaland has posted over 8.0 non-penalty xG already, averaging close to 1.2 npxG per 90, which is comfortably elite. He is heavily involved in high-quality opportunities, averaging nearly 1.5 big chances per match, and he has only once finished a game without a clear sight at goal.
For punters, the reliability is what stands out. Whether you are backing him anytime goalscorer, over 1.5 shots on target, or even to bag multiple, his shot profile and City’s dominance make those angles live almost every weekend.
With Brentford up next who are a side who have conceded in every home game so far and rank bottom three in the league for shots faced inside the box, Haaland’s case strengthens further. City create volume regardless of opponent, and with the Norwegian in this rhythm, the numbers point clearly towards him delivering again.
Brentford (4-2-3-1): Kelleher; Kayode, Collins, van den Berg, Hickey; Henderson, Yarmoliuk; Ouattara, Damsgaard, Schade; Thiago.
Manchester City (4-1-4-1): Donnarumma; O’Reilly, Dias, Gvardiol, Nunes; Reijnders; Gonzalez, Foden, Savinho, Doku; Haaland.
Anything else catch the eye?
The statistical case for combining both teams to be carded with Manchester City scoring over 1.5 goals is strong.
Starting with discipline, both sides have been regulars in the referee’s book. Brentford average 1.83 cards per match, with opponents collecting 2.33 against them. Their matches therefore see close to four bookings on average, which puts them above the league mean. Manchester City have been less frequent offenders at 1.33 cards per game, but their opponents average 1.83, but on the road this season they collected two each in each fixture. Darren England, the referee, issues just over four cards per match in the Premier League. Both sides receiving at least one booking is therefore statistically favoured.
On the goals side, City’s attacking profile remains one of the most reliable in the league. They are averaging 15.3 shots per match, with 4.7 on target, figures that place them top three in the division. Crucially, they have scored 14 goals across six games, and have already passed the 1.5 goal line in three of those. Their chance creation backs this up, producing seven big chances while conceding just three, giving them one of the strongest ratios in the league.
Brentford’s defensive record adds weight. They have conceded 11 goals in six matches, shipping an average of 1.83 per game, while their opponents average over 13 shots against them. At home they remain unbeaten, but they still concede opportunities, allowing 4+ corners and multiple big chances in most fixtures.
The wider metrics also underline City’s edge: their 9.84 xPTS ranks them inside the top four for performance, compared with Brentford’s 7.88. The gap in expected supremacy, combined with City’s shooting power and Brentford’s tendency to concede chances, suggests City to score at least twice is well backed.
Together, the data points towards goals for City and cards for both teams in what should be a competitive fixture.
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