The Premier League continues on Saturday night as Brentford host Chelsea at the Brentford Community Stadium in the late kick-off. Both sides have experienced contrasting fortunes in the opening weeks of the season, and the data suggests Chelsea arrive as clear favourites.
Brentford have had a sluggish start, taking only three points from their first three matches. They were beaten at Sunderland last weekend despite Jordan Henderson and Mikkel Damsgaard showing moments of quality, and concerns remain over their cutting edge. With Yoane Wissa finally moving onto Newcastle, Keith Andrews has leaned on younger players and Thiago, but their overall attacking numbers remain poor.
Brentford rank 17th for shots in the box created and have the third-lowest non-penalty xG in the division, reflecting a lack of consistent threat in the final third. At the back, Nathan Collins and Sepp van den berg and others have worked hard, but lapses have crept in. Caoimhin Kelleher has endured some shaky moments since arriving from Liverpool, and the Bees have already conceded six big chances in three games.
Chelsea, by contrast, have started strongly under Enzo Maresca. They top the xPTS table with 7.37 and have won all three of their xG battles. Their underlying process is the best in the league, averaging 2.21 non-penalty xG for per game while conceding just 0.87. Defensively, they are yet to give up a big chance. Summer business has helped reshape the squad, with Robert Sanchez impressing in goal and Joao Pedro adding competition in attack. Chelsea look balanced, combining a high pressing style with measured possession.
Brentford will rely on the home crowd to lift them, but Chelsea’s blend of solidity and creativity makes them well-placed to maintain their early-season momentum.
How the bookies view it: Blues big favourites
Chelsea are 10/13 favourites (57% implied probability) to win at Brentford, with the hosts priced at 15/4 (21%) and the draw at 29/10 (26%). Goals are expected, with over 2.5 at 8/11 (58% implied probability) and both teams to score also 8/11 (58%). The odds reflect Chelsea’s dominance in the underlying numbers.
While the market leans towards goals, the prices suggest a stronger chance that Chelsea do the bulk of the scoring rather than this being an evenly matched shootout.
Head to Head: Chelsea edge it
Brentford and Chelsea have met 12 times in league and cup since 2013, with Chelsea holding the edge overall but Brentford enjoying notable recent success. Chelsea have won five of those games, Brentford three, with four draws, and the goal tally stands 18–13 in Chelsea’s favour.
In the Premier League era, Brentford have been competitive, winning 2-0 at Stamford Bridge in April 2023 and again in October 2023, while also earning a 2-2 draw at home in March 2024. Chelsea won the most recent meeting 2-1 at Stamford Bridge in December 2024 before a goalless draw at Brentford in April 2025.
Earlier cup ties were dominated by Chelsea, including 4-0 wins in both 2017 and 2013 FA Cup clashes. The overall record points to Chelsea’s superiority, but Brentford have proved awkward opponents in league play, avoiding defeat in four of the last six top-flight meetings.
Players to watch: Caicedo to continue to fire in shots
Moises Caicedo stands out in the player props market this weekend, with Coral offering 19/20 on him to register a single shot. The Chelsea midfielder has quietly built a 100% record in this market, attempting at least one effort in each of his three Premier League appearances so far. He even found the net against West Ham, while also trying his luck versus Crystal Palace and Fulham.
What makes the price appealing is Chelsea’s dominance of possession. Enzo Maresca’s side rank top for xPTS and regularly control territory, giving midfielders repeated opportunities to step forward or strike from recycled set plays. Caicedo himself is heavily involved, averaging nearly 80 touches per match and keeping his passing accuracy above 90% in two of three games.
With Chelsea expected to dictate the ball again, and Caicedo’s perfect record intact, 19/20 looks solid value for 1+ shot.
Predicted line-ups
Brentford (4-2-3-1): Kelleher, Kayode, Collins, Van den Berg, Lewis-Potter, Henderson, Yarmolyuk, Ouattara, Damsgaard, Schade, Thiago
Chelsea (4-2-3-1): Sanchez, Gusto, Chalobah, Adarabioyo, Cucurella, Caicedo, Fernandez, Estevao, Pedro, Neto, George
Anything else catch the eye?
Chelsea to win and over 1.5 goals looks the most reliable angle for this clash, with the underlying numbers pointing firmly in their favour.
Chelsea matches have been high on attacking intent, with their games averaging 7.67 shots on target in total, and they hold a 65.2% SOT ratio. That balance shows they are consistently creating more than they allow. Their shots-in-box differential is also positive at +2.0, reflecting how often they are working the ball into high-quality areas. Crucially, Chelsea have converted dominance into meaningful chances, creating six big opportunities already this season.
Brentford, on the other hand, have defensive flaws that Chelsea can exploit. The Bees sit 17th for shots in the box created but 3rd worst for shots in the box conceded, highlighting the imbalance in their play. They have allowed opponents 1.21 non-penalty xG per match, and their ratio of 36.4% is among the lowest in the league. That profile suggests they concede territory and quality chances too often to frustrate a side as efficient as Chelsea.
When Chelsea have won, they have done so with authority, not by narrow margins. Their last outing was a 2-0 derby win over Fulham in which they restricted the opposition to scraps, while still producing sustained pressure in the final third. Against a Brentford side short of conviction without Wissa, Chelsea’s attacking depth should ensure at least two goals in the game, even if Brentford were to nick one themselves.
The combination of Chelsea’s chance creation, their ability to sustain pressure, and Brentford’s defensive record makes Chelsea to win and over 1.5 goals a strong selection, backed up by both the numbers and recent performances.
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