Brentford welcome Aston Villa to the Gtech Community Stadium on Wednesday night in the third round of the EFL Cup, with Villa entering the competition for the first time this season.
Keith Andrew’s Brentford have had a mixed start in the Premier League, earning four points from their opening four fixtures. Their most recent result was a dramatic 2-2 with Chelsea in the league. Brentford’s underlying data is less convincing, however: they sit in the bottom five for xG at just 1.0 per game, and their shot numbers are among the lowest in the division. That said, Andrews has reshaped his squad over the summer, with Bryan Mbeumo sold to Manchester United, Yoane Wissa finally sold to Newcastle and captain Christian Norgaard leaving for Arsenal.
Aston Villa arrive in need of a boost. They have collected just two points from their first four league matches, failing to score in all four. Their most recent outing was a goalless draw away at Everton, following a 3-0 home defeat to Crystal Palace and a 1-0 loss at Brentford. Villa are 19th in the Premier League table and struggling for attacking rhythm. Unai Emery has seen his side generate just 0.7 xG per game on average. Defensively, though, Villa have been organised, conceding only four goals in as many games.
This tie offers both managers a chance to rotate slightly but with pressure to progress. Brentford have the confidence of that recent league win, while Villa are desperate to build momentum. Expect a competitive contest, where fine margins may once again decide the outcome.
How the bookies view it: Goals on the agenda?
Brentford are 17/10 to win (implied probability 37%), with the draw at 13/5 (28%) and Aston Villa 13/5 (28%). The market sees Brentford as narrow favourites, but it is priced as a fairly even contest. Goals are strongly expected: over 2.5 is 4/6 (60%) and both teams to score is even shorter at 4/7 (63%).
That reflects Villa’s defensive solidity but lack of goals so far, and Brentford’s own trend of tight, low-scoring games. The prices suggest an open affair, but the underlying stats from both sides point more towards another cagey contest than the goal-heavy outcome the market implies.
Head to Head: Bees edge it
Brentford and Aston Villa have met 15 times in recent years, with Brentford winning five, Villa four and six ending level, underlining how competitive this fixture has been. The goal difference is almost even at 19–20, with matches averaging 2.6 goals per game, and most contests decided by fine margins.
Recent Premier League meetings have continued that trend, with Villa winning four of the last five but Brentford edging the most recent clash 1–0 in August 2025. Three of those five produced over 2.5 goals, though only two of the last ten head-to-heads were settled by more than a single goal, showing that while goals are often shared, this remains a tight and evenly balanced fixture.
Players to watch: Schade constant threat
Kevin Schade still looks a solid pick for the 1+ shot on target market under new boss Keith Andrews. Since Andrews stepped in, Brentford’s attacking approach has not shifted dramatically: Schade continues to be given license to run at defenders and carry the ball into advanced positions. Across his last five matches, he has produced eight shots with four on target, including a goal against Chelsea where he tested the keeper twice from four attempts.
Schade has been used both wide and centrally, and regardless of role, he is averaging 1.6 shots per game. That consistency is important in a market like this. He also ranks among Brentford’s most progressive carriers, often creating his own shooting angles rather than relying solely on service.
Villa, meanwhile, have been defensively steady under Unai Emery, conceding just four goals in four league games. However, they still give up attempts with opponents average close to nine shots per game against them and Brentford, at home, are capable of turning that pressure into chances.
With confidence from his goal against Chelsea and Andrews keen to trust players who commit defenders, Schade should get opportunities here. At least one shot on target is a realistic and data-backed expectation.
Predicted line-ups
Brentford (3-4-1-2): Valdimarsson, Hickey, Henry, Van den Berg, Pinnock, Ajer, Onyeka, Milambo, Schade, Jensen, Carvalho
Aston Villa (4-2-3-1): Bizot,Cash, Lindelof, Torres, Maatsen, Bogarde, Tielemans,Elliott, Sancho, Rogers, Guessand
Anything else catch the eye?
The strongest angle for this match looks to be under 2.5 goals.
Both Brentford and Aston Villa come into this tie with attacking concerns. Brentford’s shot production is one of the lowest in the Premier League. They average only two shots on target per match, and their chance creation has dried up since Mbeumo’s departure. Brentford prefer compact, structured contests, and their xPTS tally of 3.91 reflects a side grinding out tight results rather than dominating, despite the 2-2 draw with Chelsea last time out.
Villa’s attacking struggles have been even more pronounced. They have failed to score in all four of thier league games this season. They are averaging fewer than nine shots per game, and only 28% of those efforts are landing on target. Their big chance creation is among the lowest in the league, with just three clear opportunities fashioned across four matches. Defensively, however, Villa remain competent. Their xGA stands at 1.05 per game, placing them mid-table for protection, and their clean sheet at Everton showed Emery’s team can dig in when required.
Villa have seen a total of just four goals across their league fixtures this term whilst Brentford have seen over 2.5 goals land in three of four so far, these have due to the goals conceded rather than the Bees attacking output. The absence of consistent attacking output from both teams makes another low-scoring contest the logical expectation.
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