Braga welcome CFR Cluj to the Estadio Municipal on Thursday night for the second leg of their Europa League third qualifying round tie. The Portuguese side hold a narrow advantage after a 2-1 victory in Romania last week, and know that a controlled performance will see them progress to the play-off round.
Artur Jorge’s team have started the season strongly, winning three of their first four competitive matches and conceding only once. They came through a tricky second qualifying round against Levski Sofia, requiring extra time at home to seal progression, before opening their Primeira Liga campaign with a convincing 3-0 win over Tondela. Last season, Braga finished fourth in the league with 68 points, underpinned by one of the division’s most potent attacks, scoring 71 goals. Their xPTS of 68.6 reflected a consistent top-four profile, though defensive lapses , particularly away, cost them ground on the top three.
Braga’s summer has seen continuity rather than upheaval, with key players such as Ricardo Horta, Joao Moutinho and Amine El Ouazzani retained. Midfield additions have been made to strengthen depth, while departures have been limited.
Cluj, managed by Dan Petrescu, have already played nine competitive matches this season, progressing through two qualifying rounds. Their run included a 3-0 aggregate win over Paks and an extra-time victory against Lugano, but recent form is mixed, with consecutive home defeats to CS U Craiova and Braga, in the first leg. In Liga I last season, they finished second, boasting the second-best home record in the division, but away from home they were less convincing, drawing 11 of 20 matches.
There has been notable squad turnover this summer, with several experienced names leaving and younger players brought in. Louis Munteanu remains the focal point in attack, while Ciprian Deac offers creativity and set-piece threat. Cluj’s away European record, however, is patchy against stronger opposition, something they must improve to have any chance of overturning the deficit.
How the bookies view it: Host huge favourites
Braga are 4/11 favourites to win the second leg, which implies a 73.3% chance of victory. The draw is priced at 4/1, equating to a 20% chance, while CFR Cluj are 9/1 outsiders, suggesting a 10% chance of an upset. Over 2.5 goals is 49/50, implying a 50.5% likelihood, and both teams to score is 6/4, which represents a 40% chance.
Head to Head: Cluj stronger over the three games
Braga and CFR Cluj have met three times in competitive action. Their first meetings came in the 2012–13 Champions League group stage, where Cluj came out on top in both games, winning 2-0 in Portugal and 3-1 in Romania. The two sides did not face each other again until this season’s Europa League third qualifying round, when Braga claimed a 2-1 victory in the first leg away from home. Overall, Cluj hold two wins to Braga’s one, with no draws between the sides.
Players to watch: Fran to fire Braga to the next round
Fran Navarro looks a strong option in the anytime scorer market for Braga’s second leg against CFR Cluj. The Spanish forward has made an impact early in the Europa League this season, scoring once and assisting once in just 182 minutes across three appearances, averaging a goal contribution every 91 minutes.
Last season in the Primeira Liga, he scored four goals in 760 minutes for Braga, equivalent to 0.47 goals per 90, with an xG rate of 0.55 per 90. His efficiency is notable, hitting the target with seven of his 12 shots and often operating in central, high-quality areas. Against Cluj’s away record in Europe, where they have struggled to keep clean sheets against stronger opposition, Navarro’s penalty-box presence and finishing ability make him a likely threat. With Braga expected to control territory and create chances, he should get the opportunities to add to his tally.
Predicted line-ups
Braga (4-3-3): Hornicek; Gomez, Niakate, Lagerbielke, Moutinho; Zalazar, Gorby, Dorgeless; Horta, Navarro, Oliveira.
CFR Cluj (4-3-3): Hindrich; Bosec, Ilie, Sinyan, Camora; Djokovic, Fica, Korenica; Nkololo, Munteanu, Postolachi.
Anything else catch the eye?
Braga’s home record in European qualifiers has been reliable. They have won six of their last eight such matches, keeping four clean sheets, and conceded just once in their last four at the Estadio Municipal in this competition. That defensive solidity has been evident this season too, with three clean sheets in four games and an average of just 0.58 xGA.
Cluj’s attacking output away to stronger sides in Europe is limited. In their last four away matches in continental competition (excluding qualifiers against lower-ranked teams), they have scored only once and averaged 0.68 xG. Against Braga last week, they registered 1.15 xG from 50% possession but struggled to create sustained pressure, managing just three shots on target.
Braga, meanwhile, do not tend to engage in high-scoring contests in these early European rounds. Seven of their last eight qualifying home wins have featured under 3.5 goals, with an average of 2.25 goals per game in that run. This fits with their measured approach when protecting a first-leg lead, prioritising control over chasing large score lines.
In the league last season, Braga’s home matches averaged 2.94 goals, but that figure was inflated by high-scoring wins against weaker opposition. Against top-six sides, that average dropped to 2.25. Cluj’s away matches in Liga I last season saw under 3.5 goals in 16 of 20 games, with an average total of 2.05 goals.
With Braga holding the edge in quality, form, and defensive control and Cluj rarely involved in high-scoring away games against stronger opposition the combination of a home win and under 3.5 goals stands out as a well-supported betting angle.
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