The Premier League returns to the Vitality Stadium this weekend as Bournemouth host Wolverhampton Wanderers in what promises to be an intriguing clash on Saturday afternoon. Both sides suffered opening-day defeats, but their performances painted different pictures.
Bournemouth began their campaign with a 4-2 loss away at Liverpool. Despite the score line, there were positives. The Cherries generated 1.70 xG from just 10 shots, including 2 big chances, showing they can pose a serious threat against even the league’s top sides. Andoni Iraola’s men also worked tirelessly, matching Liverpool’s running and sprint numbers almost stride for stride. The defensive concerns remained, however, with Liverpool recording 2.21 xG and 36 touches in the box, exposing gaps left when Bournemouth pushed forward.
It follows on from last season when Bournemouth finished ninth, their best top-flight campaign ever. Underlying metrics backed up that success: at home they averaged 1.70 xG per game, the third-best in the division, while conceding only 16 goals across 19 games. That strength was offset in the summer by the departures of Milos Kerkez and Dean Huijsen, although Djordje Petrovic has arrived from Chelsea and Adrien Truffert from Rennes.
Wolves, meanwhile, endured a miserable start with a 4-0 home defeat to Manchester City. Vitor Pereira’s side created just 0.56 xG, had only nine shots and none of them qualified as big chances. They lost the duel count, won just a third of their aerial battles, and spent much of the game chasing. Last term Wolves struggled on the road, finishing with only the 15th-best away record and conceded 37 goals.
They have bolstered their attack with the permanent signing of Jorgen Strand Larsen and further additions of Fernando Lopez and Jhon Arias, but the sales of Matheus Cunha and Rayan Ait-Nouri weakened them significantly. Pereira steadied the ship after December last term, but Wolves remain a side with defensive gaps and much to prove.
How the bookies view it: Wolves will find the Cherries bitter
Bournemouth go into the game priced at 17/20, which carries an implied probability of 54%, reflecting both their strong home record and Wolves’ vulnerabilities. The draw is 3/1 (25%), while Wolves are 7/2 (22%), underlining how little confidence the market has in them on the road.
In the goals markets, over 2.5 is 10/13, implying 57%, and both teams to score is 7/10, around 59%. What’s notable is the clash between last season’s trends and the prices: Bournemouth’s home matches only went over 2.5 in 32% of cases, yet Wolves’ away games went over in 74%, and the bookmakers are clearly favouring the latter trend.
Head to Head: Card Heavy
The league meetings between Bournemouth and Wolves have been remarkably balanced. In 12 recent Premier League encounters, both sides have five wins apiece and two draws, with goals level at 14 each. Seven of the last nine league games have been decided by just a single goal or ended level, and both teams have managed away victories in the fixture. That history points to a rivalry shaped by fine margins rather than dominance, with neither side able to stamp sustained authority.
What really stands out from their head-to-head data is the card record. Across those 12 league clashes, referees have issued 77 yellow cards, an average of 6.42 per match. The split has been almost even, with Bournemouth collecting 37 and Wolves 40, equating to just over three bookings per team per game. The recent trend is even stronger: in October 2023 Wolves picked up 6 yellows at Bournemouth, and in April 2024 they had another 4 cautions. Nine of the last 10 league fixtures between these two have produced at least four cards, and half of them reached six or more.
Players to watch: Truffert to find it tough
Adrien Truffert looks a strong candidate for over 1.5 fouls when Bournemouth host Wolves. His role in Andoni Iraola’s system leaves him constantly pushing high, often beyond midfield to press and support attacks. That positioning creates risk in transition, and when Bournemouth lose the ball Truffert can be exposed one-versus-one, forced into tactical fouls to slow play.
His Premier League debut away at Liverpool highlighted this pattern. He committed two fouls, both stopping counterattacks in wide areas. That was in line with his profile at Rennes, where while he only averaged 0.8 fouls per 90 minutes last season, he was playing in a more controlled system. Under Iraola, the demands on full-backs are far greater and the opportunities to be caught high up the pitch are more frequent.
Against Wolves he will likely face direct runners on his side, with options like Jhon Arias or Hwang Hee-chan coming on late in the game and are both comfortable carrying the ball and drawing contact. Wolves away from home concede space but look to break quickly, exactly the type of scenario that leads Truffert to foul. With this tactical setup and opponent profile, over 1.5 fouls is a bet that makes real sense.
Predicted line-ups
Bournemouth (4-1-4-1): Petrovic; Smith, Senesi, Diakite, Truffert; Adams; Brooks, Scott, Tavernier, Semenyo; Evanilson
Wolves (3-4-3): Sa; Doherty, Agbadou, Gomes; Wolfe; Hoever, Andre, Gomes; Bellegarde, Larsen, Toti
Anything else catch the eye?
Backing Bournemouth to win looks a strong angle in this fixture. Their numbers at home last season were impressive, and the early signs from Wolves suggest defensive problems will continue.
At the Vitality in 2024/25, Bournemouth recorded seven clean sheets, conceded just 16 goals and restricted opponents to 6.47 shots inside the box per game which is a top-six defensive mark. They also ranked among the top five for shots created inside the area at home, averaging 9.00 per game. Those fundamentals show a side capable of controlling territory and limiting opposition chances while creating good ones of their own.
Contrast that with Wolves’ away record last season. They conceded 8.53 shots inside their box per match, one of the worst in the league, and had a shots-in-box ratio of only 41.3%. Their away xPTS totalled 20.34, bottom-six level, and they kept just three clean sheets. Even when they did win, it was often by being clinical rather than by sustained dominance, as reflected in a negative xG differential on the road.
The opening weekend underlined those trends. Wolves shipped 15 shots and 2.47 xG to Manchester City, allowing 28 touches in their area. They won just 45% of ground duels and a third of aerial duels, showing how vulnerable they are physically. Bournemouth, meanwhile, created 1.70 xG and two big chances at Anfield, suggesting they can cause real problems against weaker defences.
With Iraola’s side consistently producing chances at home and Wolves struggling badly to limit them on the road, the matchup looks favourable. Bournemouth’s energy, pressing and ability to turn pressure into box entries should tell over ninety minutes, making a home win a logical selection.
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