Birmingham and Sheffield United meet at St Andrew’s on Wednesday night in the EFL Cup, with both sides looking to progress after contrasting starts to their league campaigns.
Under Chris Davies, Birmingham opened with a 1-1 home draw against Ipswich in the Championship. That game was a combative affair, producing 38 fouls, and saw Birmingham edge possession at 51% while creating two big chances to Ipswich’s one. Since relegation, St Andrew’s has been a fortress. They have lost only twice at home in all competitions, against Newcastle in the FA Cup and Fulham in last season’s EFL Cup.
Last season’s League One champions finished with 111 points, unbeaten at home, and boasted the best defensive and attacking metrics in the division. Summer arrivals include James Beadle, Tommy Doyle, Demarai Gray, Furuhashi Kyogo and Marvin Ducksch, adding depth and quality across the pitch.
Sheffield United arrive off the back of a damaging 4-1 home defeat to Bristol City, a result that piled early pressure on Ruben Selles. Despite 74% possession and generating 2.30 xG from 20 shots, their defensive structure faltered, conceding four goals from just 1.30 xG against. It was a stark contrast to last season’s solidity under Chris Wilder, when they finished in third in the Championship with 90 points and the division’s second-best home record. Over the summer, key departures have been balanced by new signings, but there are questions over whether the squad has enough defensive balance.
Rotation is likely for both sides. For Birmingham, it could mean game time for several of their summer signings. Selles, however, may opt for minimal changes in a bid to get a reaction from the Bristol City defeat. With both clubs eager to progress, the tie promises a competitive edge.
How the bookies view it: Blues favourites to progress
5/4 on Birmingham to win in 90 minutes carries a 44.4% implied probability. The draw at 5/2 equates to 28.6%, while Sheffield United at 12/5 is 29.4%.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 23/20 (46.5%) and both teams to score at 9/10 (52.6%). The market expects goals, with both teams to score slightly more favoured than a high total.
Head to Head: Honours even
Birmingham and Sheffield United have been evenly matched in recent years, with their last eight Championship meetings producing four draws, two wins for Birmingham and two for the Blades. These encounters have often been tight, low-scoring affairs, underlining the competitive balance between the sides. Birmingham’s victories include a 1-0 win at Bramall Lane in August 2021 and a 2-1 home success in April 2018, while United’s wins came away in February 2022 and on the final day of the 2022/23 season. The remaining fixtures have been draws, including goalless games in September 2018 and October 2022. Overall, the head-to-head record suggests little to choose between them.
Players to watch: Barry to bang in the shots
Louie Barry looks a strong anytime scorer option given his output and style of play. On his Sheffield United debut against Bristol City, he managed four shots in just 56 minutes, hitting the target once and producing 0.30 xG along with six shot-creating actions. He was direct and positive, completing 18 of 20 passes and attempting four take-ons, showing a willingness to get into advanced positions.
His brief spell with Hull last season was quieter, but across four games he still demonstrated pace, dribbling ability, and the intent to attack full-backs, which now fits well in United’s set-up. Barry’s background in the Aston Villa academy and England youth teams highlights his pedigree, and his movement from the left flank into central areas makes him difficult to pick up.
Against a Birmingham side that conceded 1.26 xG and 14 touches in their box against Ipswich, Barry’s ability to find space in dangerous areas could be decisive. If he plays with the same intent as on his debut, he poses a real scoring threat.
Predicted line-ups
Birmingham (4-2-3-1): Beadle; Laird, Bielik, Cashin, Gardner-Hickman; Leonard, Doyle; Willumsson, Anderson, Gray; Dykes.
Sheffield United (4-3-3): A. Davies; Seriki, Bindon, Robinson, McCallum; Soumara; Hamer, O’Hare; Barry, Marsh; Cannon.
Anything else catch the eye?
The case for backing both teams to score in this EFL Cup tie rests on recent performances and the underlying data from both sides.
Birmingham showed attacking intent against Ipswich, taking 11 shots and recording 14 touches in the opposition box. They also created two big chances, highlighting their ability to work the ball into dangerous areas. Since the start of last season, they have scored in 21 of their last 24 home matches in all competitions, showing a consistent output at St Andrew’s.
Sheffield United may have been thrashed by Bristol City, but their attacking numbers were strong. They generated 2.30 xG and took 20 shots, with six inside the box and five on target. That level of attacking output, even in defeat, suggests they can create chances against a Birmingham side who allowed Ipswich 1.26 xG and 19 touches in their box last weekend.
The Blades’ defensive frailties are the other half of the equation. They conceded four goals from 1.30 xG against Bristol City and lost more than half of their ground duels. Birmingham’s defensive numbers against Ipswich also left room for improvement, with a 38% aerial duel win rate and 0.24 xG conceded from set plays which is an area Sheffield United can target.
Cup ties often open up, especially when one side is looking to integrate new players and the other is seeking a reaction. With Birmingham’s strong home scoring record and United’s attacking output but defensive vulnerabilities, both teams finding the net looks a well-founded angle.
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