Birmingham City and Ipswich Town meet in the Championship on Friday night as the new season kicks off at St Andrew’s. Both clubs come into the campaign with high expectations after dominant League One and Premier League showings in very different contexts.
Birmingham were near faultless last season, winning the League One title with 111 points under Chris Davies. They conceded just 31 goals, kept 22 clean sheets, and were praised for their clarity in structure and attacking balance. Much of that side remains intact including Christoph Klarer, Paik Seung-Ho, Ethan Laird and Jay Stansfield, but they have strengthened too. Demarai Gray and Kyogo Furuhashi offer cutting edge in the final third, Tommy Doyle adds drive in midfield, and Bright Osayi-Samuel and Phil Neumann improve options down the right. With Knighthead and Tom Wagner investing heavily off the pitch, there is momentum behind the scenes and belief on it.
Ipswich return to the Championship after a one-year spell in the Premier League. They struggled at the top level, but under Kieran McKenna have retained a strong identity and improved the squad. Liam Delap has departed, but the core remains: Leif Davis, Conor Chaplin, Nathan Broadhead, and George Hirst all played key roles in their 2023/24 promotion season. They have added proven Championship performers in Sammie Szmodics and Jacob Greaves, while Azor Matusiwa strengthens midfield and Jaden Philogene and Jack Clarke add wide threat.
Ipswich had the second-highest xPTS total in the Championship in 2023/24. Birmingham topped League One in xPTS and xG metrics. Both teams arrive in form, with defined playing styles and plenty of attacking talent. This will be an early test for two clubs aiming high, Ipswich for the title, Birmingham for a play-off push.
How the bookies view it: Even game with both teams to find the net
Birmingham are priced at 31/20 to win this Championship opener, implying a 39.2% chance of victory. Ipswich are 188/100, which equates to a 34.7% chance, while the draw is 49/20 (29.0%). The odds reflect how evenly matched these sides are, despite Birmingham being at home. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 11/10 (47.6% implied probability) and both teams to score is 10/11 (52.4%), suggesting the market expects goals but not overwhelmingly so.
Both teams have attacking quality and will look to play on the front foot, so both teams to score is a logical lean.
Head to Head: Ipswich to score twice again?
Ipswich Town are unbeaten in their last six Championship meetings with Birmingham City, recording three wins and three draws. Last season, they drew 2-2 at St Andrew’s in November before winning 3-1 at Portman Road in February. Across their last 12 encounters in the Championship, both sides have won three matches each, with six ending in draws. Ipswich have scored 22 goals in those games compared to Birmingham’s 21, and the Tractor Boys have found the net at least twice in five of the last six meetings. That includes scoring two goals in each of their last two visits to St Andrew’s.
Players to watch: Hirst and O'Shea different threats to the Blues
George Hirst is a strong candidate for over 0.5 shots on target in Ipswich’s opener at Birmingham. Now wearing the No 9 shirt and leading the line following Liam Delap’s departure, Hirst comes into the new season in form, having scored four goals during pre-season and looked sharp across multiple friendlies.
Despite starting only five Premier League matches last season, he still managed seven shots on target from 14 total attempts in just 661 minutes, averaging one shot on target every 94 minutes. With more minutes expected and Ipswich likely to dominate territory and possession under Kieran McKenna, Hirst should see a regular supply of chances. He will also benefit from the creative presence of Sammie Szmodics, Jack Clarke, and Jaden Philogene behind him, all players who ranked highly for key passes and progressive play in the Championship two seasons ago. With set structure, form, and service on his side, Hirst is well placed to test the keeper at least once on Friday night.
Dara O’Shea at 5/6 for at least one shot looks a solid value bet. He attempted 22 shots in the Premier League last season, the vast majority coming from set pieces. With Ipswich expected to have strong delivery from Leif Davis, Ashley Young and Jaden Philogene, O’Shea should get opportunities to attack corners and free-kicks. He was a consistent aerial target at the top level, and against Championship defences, he is likely to find more space and weaker marking. If Ipswich earn a few dead-ball situations, O’Shea is a real threat to get on the end of one.
Predicted line-ups
Birmingham (4-2-3-1): Allsop; Osayi-Samuel, Klarer, Neumann, Cochrane; Iwata, Paik; Doyle, Anderson, Gray; Stansfield
Ipswich Town (4-2-3-1): Palmer; Johnson, O’Shea, Greaves, Davis; Matusiwa, Taylor; Clarke, Szmodics, Philogene; Hirst
Anything else catch the eye?
With the game taking place in Birmingham, Ipswich Town Draw No Bet looks the most secure angle for backing the visitors in a strong position.
Chris Davies’ Birmingham City side were dominant in League One last season, but stepping up to the Championship means facing a much higher level of opponent, and Ipswich’s attacking unit looks well equipped to expose space. On the road in their 2023/24 promotion season, Ipswich averaged 1.42 non-penalty xG per game and conceded just 0.98 xGA, showing control in and out of possession.
They also averaged 14.2 total shots per away game and ranked third for xPTS on the road. The difference now is that Ipswich have a much stronger Championship squad. Last summer, they built with one eye on Premier League survival, bringing in players from the very top of the second tier, knowing relegation was a realistic outcome. That recruitment now pays off with a good mixture of Premier League knowhow and Championship experience in the squad.
Birmingham are still integrating several new signings, including Kyogo Furuhashi, Tommy Doyle, and Demarai Gray. Davies may still be working out how to get the balance right.
Ipswich are more cohesive, more settled, and have a track record of producing consistent underlying numbers. Draw No Bet offers protection, but the visitors look well placed to take all three points.
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