Eight years after their last appearance in the Champions League proper, Qarabag got handed one of the toughest draws. The long road ahead begins with a difficult trip to Benfica’s Estadio da Luz.
Apart from a couple of draws, Benfica have been flawless since the start of their 2025/26 campaign, and are unbeaten in nine fixtures across all competitions. Kicking off the season with a trophy (domestic Super Cup), the Eagles went through Nice and Fenerbahce in the qualifications without conceding a single goal. Bruno Lage’s side is showing great form, with the only negative being the lack of goals. Benfica have only scored more than two goals in one fixture this season.
On the other end, Qarabag had a much easier cycle when it came to the level of the opposition, despite playing two additional matches. But reaching the League Phase is a serious achievement, although the Horsemen are likely to finish around the bottom with their draw. But Qarabag also scored 15 goals in six qualification games, so perhaps they can cause problems for some of the big favourites.
How the bookies view it: Qarabag will be underdogs in every match
Bookmakers expect a one-sided affair, with the odds being extremely in favour of the Eagles. You can currently back the hosts at 1/5, while Qarabag are available at 12/1. The draw also offers a high price at 6/1.
Recent head to head: There's a first time for everything
This is the first meeting between Benfica and Qarabag, and there is no record of them playing friendlies either. However, we can mention that the Horsemen have met Portuguese teams in the past, losing three out of four matches.
Players to watch: Pavlidis is waking up again
Some would say that Vangelis Pavlidis is having a slow start to the new season after an exceptional campaign, but his form has slowly been improving, and his performance for Greece during the international break proves it. He scored a goal and provided two assists against Belarus. As for his performance for Benfica, his two goals this season won the team the Super Cup and a point against Santa Clara during the weekend.
Pavlidis was one of the Champions League top scorers last season with seven goals in 12 matches. The 13/20 odds at Betfred offer good value for this match, especially if you take advantage of our exclusive Betfred Promo Code for £50 in free bets.
Probable line-ups
Benfica: Trubin, Araujo, Otamendi, Silva, Dahl, Aursnes, Rios, Barrenechea, Schjelderup, Pavlidis, Ivanovic
Qarabag: Kochalski, Silva, Mmaee, Medina, Bayramov, Jankovic, Borges, Bicalho, Andrade, Duran, Zoubir
Anything else catch the eye?
Defence has been Benfica’s secret weapon this season, as the Eagles have conceded only two goals in nine fixtures. Not even Nice or Fenerbahce managed to score against them in the qualifiers, making us believe that betting on a clean sheet is one of the safer options.
Benfica’s matches have produced an unusually high number of cards this season. We wouldn’t risk it with the regular market, as the odds are not ideal, but we can back Qarabag to get at least three cards in this match. Benfica’s fast football will force the Horsemen into survival mode, so we should see some bookings.
GambleAware