Boca Juniors take on Auckland City in what should be a one-sided final Group C fixture at the FIFA Club World Cup. Boca are coming off a 2-2 draw with Benfica in their opener a match where the score line flattered them.
They managed just nine shots, only three of which were on target, and posted an xG of just 0.47. Despite that, they found the net twice and were generally efficient with what they created. Defensively, they conceded 1.76 xGA from eight shots and three on target, so while they were not carved open frequently, the chances they did give up were of decent quality. They will be without Ander Herrera, who was sent off in that game, but they still look well-equipped to control this match.
Auckland, by contrast, have looked out of their depth. In their opener against Bayern Munich, they were thrashed 10-0. They conceded 31 shots, including 25 inside the box, with 17 hitting the target and an xGA of 4.28. They managed just a single shot themselves, which had an xG of 0.03. Their second outing was not much better a 6-0 defeat to Benfica, in which they allowed 32 shots, 16 on target, and 19 inside the area. The xGA this time jumped to 5.71. They did improve marginally in attack with four shots and two on target, but the overall xG was still just 0.12.
Across two games, Auckland have now conceded 16 goals from 63 shots, with 33 of those on target and a combined xGA of 9.99. Their opponents have been relentless, and the structure of their backline has completely collapsed under pressure. Their own attacking output has been negligible, five shots, three on target, and 0.15 xG across 180 minutes of football. The gulf in quality, tempo, and decision-making has been massive.
Boca are unlikely to pass up the opportunity to secure qualification here. They know a convincing win could help their chances of progressing and potentially influence who they face in the knockout stages. Given Auckland’s vulnerability, this is a match where Boca should dominate possession, rack up shot volume, and likely cruise to a clean sheet. With the way Auckland have defended, it would not be surprising to see a margin similar to what Benfica achieved, if not worse.
How the bookies view it: Boca to win by at least four
Boca Juniors are priced at 1/41 to win, underlining just how dominant they are expected to be. The draw is out at 70/1, while Auckland City are huge outsiders at 150/1. Over 2.5 goals is trading at 1/16, suggesting a high-scoring match is all but assumed. Both teams to score is 11/2, which reflects the market's lack of faith in Auckland even registering a goal.
The Asian Handicap market gives a clearer sense of just how one-sided this could be. Boca -4 is as short as 1/4, meaning even a four-goal winning margin only gets your stake back. The expectation is not just that Boca will win, but that they will win by at least five.
Head to Head: First Meeting
Auckland City and Boca Juniors have never played each other before in any official or recorded match.
Predicted line-ups
Auckland City (4-5-1): Tracey, Lobo, Den Heijer, Mitchell, Murati, Ilich, Garriga, Bevan, De Vries, Kilkolly, Manickum
Boca Juniors (4-2-3-1): Marchesin, Advincula, Di Lollo, Costa, Blanco, Belmonte, Battaglia, Zenon, Palacios, Velasco, Merentiel
Players to watch: Advincula to advance for shots
Luis Advincula has quietly been a consistent attacking outlet for Boca Juniors at this Club World Cup. He has played at right back in both matches but has managed a shot in each, and it is clear from his positioning that he plays far higher up than a typical fullback. Against Bayern Munich, six players in the starting eleven had a deeper average position, highlighting how aggressively he pushes forward.
Domestically, he has started seven games this season and registered a shot in four of them, which is already a decent return for a defender. But in this Boca side especially in this tournament where width and overlapping play have been crucial his role is more of a wide wing-back or even auxiliary winger than a traditional right back.
Backing him to simply have a shot or two does not offer value; those markets are already heavily skewed, with odds far too short for a player even in his position. But where the angle gets interesting is with shots on target. Boca are expected to dominate possession and territory, and Auckland’s defensive numbers are historically bad. They have already conceded 33 shots on target in two games, 17 against Bayern and 16 against Benfica. If Boca approach anything close to those figures, Advincula will almost certainly get his chance.
Given his attacking tendencies and Auckland’s inability to contain pressure from wide areas, backing Advincula to register at least one shot on target looks like a strong value play, especially with the market still treating him as a conventional fullback rather than the high-positioned threat he has been so far.
Anything else catch the eye?
Auckland City’s first half performances have been consistently poor and underline just how vulnerable they are from the start. Against Benfica, they conceded 18 shots in the first half alone, eight of them on target with an xGA of 2.03. Against Bayern Munich, it was 15 shots, nine on target, and an xGA of 1.34. Across those two games, they have conceded seven first half goals.
Boca Juniors, by contrast, have been far more competitive. They registered four first half shots in both of their games, against much better opposition than Auckland, and they come into this knowing anything less than a win means elimination. The game state here sets up perfectly for Boca to start on the front foot and take control early. Auckland have not shown any ability to withstand sustained pressure and Boca are under pressure to produce a dominant result.
With odds on a Boca win sitting at 1/41, and even winning margins of three or four goals barely touching odds-on territory, backing them outright offers no value. Instead, looking at shots makes far more sense. Given Auckland’s record, Boca to register over 14 or 15 first half shots would be logical targets. Boca are expected to pin Auckland back early and build a platform for a comfortable win, and the numbers suggest that could happen in the first 45 minutes.
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