The Champions League league phase continues on Wednesday night as Atletico Madrid host Eintracht Frankfurt at the Metropolitano. It is an important fixture for both sides after contrasting opening results: Atleti were beaten 3-2 at Anfield despite twice drawing level, while Frankfurt announced themselves with a thumping 5-1 victory over Galatasaray.
Atletico arrive in mixed domestic form. They have collected 12 points from their opening seven La Liga matches (W3 D3 L1) with an xPTS of 11.3, roughly in line with their return. Their defence, usually Simeone’s strength, has looked less secure: they have already conceded nine league goals and needed five against Real Madrid last weekend to record their standout win of the season. Julian Alvarez remains their most consistent forward, though Antoine Griezmann has been central to their chance creation.
Frankfurt, by contrast, come into this full of goals. They are one of the most entertaining sides in the Bundesliga so far, with 27 scored and 14 conceded across their seven competitive fixtures this season. They have overperformed their xPTS slightly (12 from seven league games compared to 10.6 expected), but their attacking numbers are genuine: they rank top in Germany for shots per 90 and touches in the box, underlining their constant pressure play.
There has also been plenty happening around the club off the field, with talks over a potential investor stake ongoing. But on the pitch, head coach Dino Toppmoller has been getting a tune out of his forwards, with Fares Chaibi and Can Uzun already linking well.
Atleti’s home record in Europe is formidable as they are unbeaten in 15 against German visitors, but Frankfurt arrive with confidence, goals, and momentum, making this one of the standout ties of the round.
How the bookies view it: Hosts favourites but goals likely
Atletico Madrid are priced at 8/13 to win this Champions League clash at the Metropolitano, which implies a 61.9% chance of victory, while the draw is 10/3 (23.3%) and Eintracht Frankfurt are 9/2 outsiders (18.2%). The market also expects goals, with Over 2.5 trading at 4/6 (60.0% implied) and Both Teams to Score at 7/10 (58.8%).
Those numbers reflect how bookmakers view Atletico’s strong home record in Europe as they unbeaten in 15 against German sides, but also acknowledge Frankfurt’s firepower, with their Bundesliga games averaging 5.86 goals per match this season. Atleti themselves were involved in a five-goal thriller at Anfield on Matchday 1, underlining how open their matches have been.
Head to Head: First Meeting
First meeting between these two sides.
Players to watch: Llorente fouls
Marcos Llorente to commit at least one foul looks a strong angle for Atletico Madrid’s clash with Eintracht Frankfurt. The Spaniard has started every game this season, completing 720 minutes, and has already committed ten fouls across eight appearances, picking up two bookings along the way. He is set to operate on the right side of defence, where he will likely come directly up against Ansgar Knauff.
The Frankfurt winger was fouled twice on Matchday 1 and has a reputation for drawing contact through his pace and direct dribbling. Llorente’s versatility often sees him pushed into defensive one-on-one situations, and his aerial weakness combined with his tendency to use physicality makes a foul highly probable. With Frankfurt averaging over 14 shots per game and using width in transition, Llorente will be tested repeatedly, making a single foul an appealing and realistic bet.
Predicted line-ups
Atletico Madrid (4-4-2): Oblak, Llorente, Le Normand, Lenglet, Hancko, Simeone, Barrios, Koke, Gonzalez, Sorloth, Alvarez
Eintracht Frankfurt (4-5-1): Kaua, Knauff, Koch, Collins, Theate, Doan, Skhiri, Chaibi, Brown, Uzun, Burkardt
Anything else catch the eye?
The data strongly points towards a goal-heavy contest in Madrid. Atletico may have the reputation of a defensive side, but their numbers this season tell a different story. They have averaged 1.63 xG per game in La Liga, producing 12 big chances across their last four matches. At the other end, they have allowed 10.8 xGA in seven league fixtures, ranking only mid-table for shots on target conceded. Their Champions League opener at Anfield produced five goals and underlined how vulnerable they can be when pushed back.
Frankfurt are even more compelling from a goals perspective. Their Bundesliga fixtures are averaging 5.86 goals per game, with both teams scoring in six of seven competitive matches. They have registered 127 shots already this season which is over 18 per match and lead the league for shots on target with 47. Defensively they are open, facing an average of 13.5 shots per 90, which explains why they have conceded 14 times already.
The away side’s Champions League opener was a 5-1 win over Galatasaray, where they generated 3.0 xG and landed 10 shots on target. It was a reminder of their attacking efficiency, with multiple scorers contributing. Their style ensures that very few games are settled quietly only one of their last 66 European matches has finished 0-0.
Put simply, both teams attack better than they defend. Atletico have scored in every home match this season but kept only one clean sheet in their last five in all competitions. Frankfurt are relentless going forward but leaky at the back, creating the ideal recipe for goals. With both both teams to score and Over 2.5 landing comfortably in the data, the prices look generous for this fixture.
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