Atletico Madrid vs Bayern MunichUEFA Champions League, KO: 20:00 Dec 1, 2020, Wanda Metropolitano
BAYERN MUNICH haven't put a foot wrong in their Champions League title defence and face Atletico Madrid with the pressure off, having already booked their place in the last 16.
But this is a crunch game for the La Liga giants as they head into matchday five with just a two-point lead over Lokomotiv Moscow and need a result to stay on the track for the knockout stages.
Back-to-back draws with the Russians have left this group on a knife edge so a defeat here, coupled with a Lokomotiv win over Salzburg, would leave Atletico's fate out of their own hands.
Diego Simeone's men are in good form, though, and sit just a point behind La Liga leaders Real Sociedad with two games in hand. Their only loss this season came against Bayern in Germany but it was a heavy one.
I fancied that game to be quite tight as the best attack in Europe faced the best defence but Bayern blew Atletico away as they romped to a 4-0 win (below). That was part of a 10-game winning streak for Hansi Flick's men and their only loss all season has come against Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga.
Bayern are clearly still Europe's top team but Flick might be tempted to rest a few players here with qualification already assured.
How the bookies view it
It's rare to see Bayern Munich as outsiders for any game but they are 5/2 with BetVictor here while Atletico are 21/20 with McBookie and the draw 3/1 at Bet365. Given the Spanish side need this more than Bayern you'd have to side with them.
Manu Sanchez, Diego Costa and Sime Vrsaljko are crocked for Atletico while Luis Suarez (below) and Lucas Torreira are doubts. Bayern will be without Alphonso Davies and Joshua Kimmich due to injury and Marc Roca is banned after a red card against Salzburg.
Players to watch
Portuguese wonderkid Joao Felix has caught the eye for Atletico this season and netted a double in their 3-2 win over Salzburg earlier in the group. He's 43/20 with 888Sport for a goal and that looks decent value.
Douglas Costa and Leroy Sane came off the bench for Bayern in the weekend win over Stuttgart and could be unleashed from the start here. Costa offers the best value for a goal at 9/2 with 888Sport while Sane is 29/10 with the same firm.
Anything else catch the eye?
After going through a spell of leaking goals, Atletico look back to their mean best and have kept clean sheets in their last four matches. But I got my fingers burned backing a lack of goalmouth action when these sides last faced off so I'm wary of going for under 2.5 strikes again at 6/5 with McBookie.
This game should be much tighter though so I like the look of the 11/8 on offer at Betway for a one-goal winning margin for either side. I also fancy the score to be level at half-time which pays 2/1 at William Hill.
There were six cards when these sides met in Munich and this one could get tasty as well but I've yet to see any prices for cards. Once they do get priced up, go for Atletico's Koke who has five yellows to his name this season.
This UEFA Champions League match between Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich will be played on Dec 1, 2020 and kick off at 20:00. Check below for our tipsters best Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich prediction.