Arsenal host Olympiacos at the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday night in the Champions League, aiming to build on their opening 2-0 victory away to Athletic Bilbao.
Mikel Arteta’s side arrive in confident mood, having lost only once in their first eight matches across all competitions this season. Their league record reads W6-D1-L1, with an xPTS tally of 11.7 that places them among the most consistent teams in England.
Defensively they remain outstanding, conceding just three goals in that period while keeping five clean sheets. The summer arrivals of Viktor Gyokeres and Eberechi Eze have added further attacking variety, with Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard continuing to be central figures in chance creation.
Europe has also been kind to Arsenal in recent years. They have won their last 13 group stage or league phase matches at home, the last 10 of those without conceding a single goal. Across their last 12 fixtures in this part of the competition, they have managed eight clean sheets, underlining the control they often exert in front of their own supporters.
Olympiacos, however, are unbeaten in seven competitive games this season. They have scored 15 and conceded just four, including a commanding 5-0 win over Panserraikos and a 3-2 success against Levadiakos at the weekend. Their European campaign began with a frustrating 0-0 draw at home to Paphos, but their recent continental record is solid, losing just once in their last 10 matches. The real problem comes away from Piraeus: they have not won a Champions League group stage game on the road since 2015, losing their last 10 in a row.
Ayoub El Kaabi carries the main goal threat, having scored five times against English opposition last year, while Mehdi Taremi’s presence adds Champions League pedigree.
How the bookies view it: Gunners to win it
Arsenal are heavy favourites at 2/9, which carries an implied probability of 81.8%. The draw is priced at 23/4 (14.8%), while Olympiacos are 23/4 outsiders (14.8%) to take a shock win in north London.
Goals markets show over 2.5 trading at 1/2 (66.7%), with both teams to score available at 6/5 (45.5%), suggesting the bookmakers expect Arsenal to dominate but are less convinced Olympiacos will get on the scoresheet.
Head to Head: Honours even
Arsenal and Olympiacos are familiar foes in European competition, having faced each other ten times since 2011. The record is perfectly balanced, with five wins apiece. Their most recent meetings came in the 2020/21 Europa League round of 16, where Arsenal advanced after a 3-1 away win in Piraeus before losing 1-0 at home.
A year earlier, the Greeks had stunned Arsenal at the Emirates with a 2-1 extra-time victory that knocked the Gunners out on away goals. In the Champions League, the sides met regularly between 2011 and 2015, trading wins both home and away. Notably, Olympiacos claimed three victories in Greece, while Arsenal’s most famous result was a 3-0 success in Athens in 2015 that sealed progression from the group stage.
Players to watch: Timber to fell the Greeks
Jurrien Timber may not be the first Arsenal player that comes to mind for a shots market, but the numbers show why backing him for over 0.5 attempts appeals. From right-back he is given license to push high, and already this season he has taken seven shots in eight appearances, hitting the target four times. Against Leeds he showed his threat by scoring twice, and he has also registered efforts in testing games against Liverpool and Newcastle. His confidence to step into midfield and carry the ball forward often puts him in positions to strike from range.
Pairing this with an Arsenal win makes sense. The Gunners have started strongly in both the Premier League and Europe, winning six of their first eight games across competitions. They have also won 13 straight group stage matches at home in UEFA competition, underlining their strength at the Emirates.
Predicted line-ups
Arsenal (4-2-3-1): Raya, Timber, Mosquera, Gabriel, Calafiori, Zubimendi, Rice, Saka, Eze, Trossard, Gyokeres
Olympiacos (4-2-3-1): El Kaabi, Podence, Chiquinho, Strefezza, Mouzakitis, Hezze, Ortega, Pirola, Retsos, Costinha, Tzolakis
Anything else catch the eye?
Backing Arsenal to win and under 3.5 goals looks a strong play for their meeting with Olympiacos. The Gunners have made a habit of grinding out efficient results this season, combining defensive strength with controlled attacking play. In their first eight matches across competitions, they have conceded just three goals, keeping five clean sheets. Their games average 2.38 goals per 90, with only two of those fixtures producing more than three goals.
At home, Arsenal’s Champions League record is even more telling. They have won 13 straight group stage or league phase games at the Emirates, and 10 of those victories finished under the 3.5 line. They have kept 10 clean sheets across that run, often closing out matches without the need to chase additional goals. Their xG in the current campaign sits at 15.2 from eight domestic matches, while their xGA is just 3.8, figures that point towards control rather than chaos.
Olympiacos bring resilience, but not necessarily high-scoring football. Their 0-0 draw with Paphos on Matchday One highlighted their limitations in the final third at European level. Domestically, five of their seven league and cup wins have come with two or fewer goals conceded, and they have scored more than twice in only three of those matches. The Greek champions have also lost their last 10 Champions League group stage away games, rarely troubling opponents on the road.
The match dynamics favour a controlled Arsenal win, much like their 2-0 at Bilbao. With Olympiacos’ away record in Europe and Arsenal’s clean-sheet pedigree, a low-scoring home success looks the most likely outcome. The market reflects Arsenal’s superiority, but tying the win to under 3.5 goals brings value and aligns neatly with both sides’ statistical trends.
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