The Premier League weekend opens with Arsenal welcoming Nottingham Forest to the Emirates Stadium in Saturday’s early kick-off, a clash that pits one of the league’s most consistent performers against a Forest side undergoing sudden upheaval.
Nuno Espirito Santo has been dismissed after a breakdown with owner Evangelos Marinakis, and Ange Postecoglou has been swiftly appointed as his replacement. Postecoglou brings a very different style, as seen at Spurs last season where his side conceded 65 goals, the fifth-most in the division, and kept only six clean sheets. Forest are unlikely to change overnight given he only took charge on Tuesday, but a more open approach is expected compared to Nuno’s cautious setups.
Arsenal come in with two wins from three matches, backed by strong numbers. They sit on 5.35 xPTS, the fifth highest in the league, and have yet to concede a big chance, ranking third-best for shots in the box allowed. Injuries complicate their build-up, with Bukayo Saka, William Saliba, Kai Havertz, Ben White and Christian Norgaard all set to miss out, taking quality away from both attack and defence.
Forest, meanwhile, have struggled at the back, ranking 13th for non-penalty xGA and 15th for shots in the box conceded, while no team has allowed more shots on target this season. Their away record against top-half opposition last season was poor at W2-D2-L5, conceding 2.22 goals per game, and despite 11 summer signings they remain a work in progress. Arsenal’s absentees may give Forest encouragement, but the Gunners’ defensive organisation and ability to control games still makes them clear favourites to extend their strong start at the Emirates.
How the bookies view it: Hosts heavy favourites
Arsenal are heavy favourites at 2/5 (71% implied probability) to beat Nottingham Forest with the draw at 4/1 (20%) and Forest out at 15/2 (12%).
Goals markets are framed accordingly, with over 2.5 goals priced at 8/11 (58% implied probability) and both teams to score at 21/20 (49%). The numbers suggest Arsenal should dominate the scoring rather than the game becoming an end-to-end shootout.
Head to Head: Gunners to shoot down the Tricky Trees
Arsenal have had the upper hand in recent meetings with Nottingham Forest, winning seven of the last ten encounters across all competitions and scoring 23 goals to Forest’s eight. The Gunners recorded emphatic victories such as 5-0 wins in both 2019 and 2022, while also taking league points with results like a 3-0 home win in November 2024 and a 2-1 away win at the City Ground in January 2024.
Forest have still enjoyed some notable successes, including FA Cup wins in 2018 and 2022 and the 1-0 Premier League victory in May 2023 that derailed Arsenal’s title bid. The most recent clash in February 2025 ended goalless at the City Ground, showing Forest are capable of frustrating Arsenal, though overall the head-to-head strongly favours the North London side.
Players to watch: Calafiori in form
Riccardo Calafiori offers strong value in the shots market this weekend, with BetVictor quoting 4/5 for him to record a single effort on goal. Since arriving at Arsenal, the Italian defender has consistently advanced into attacking areas, and the underlying data supports his chances of producing again.
He has managed at least one shot in every outing this season for both club and country. In his three Premier League appearances so far, Calafiori has attempted eight efforts, including three during the 5-0 win over Leeds. His numbers are meaningful too, with 1.4 xG generated from those attempts. Even in the narrow 1-0 loss to Liverpool he found space for three shots, showing his tendency to step forward regardless of opponent.
Priced at 4/5, he looks excellent value.
Predicted line-ups
Arsenal (4-3-3): Raya, Timber, Mosquera, Gabriel, Calafiori, Odegaard, Zubimendi, Rice, Madueke, Gyokeres, Eze
Nottingham Forest (4-2-3-1) : Sels, Williams, Milenkovic, Murillo, Morato, Sangare, Anderson, Ndoye, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi, Wood
Anything else catch the eye?
Backing Arsenal to win and under 3.5 goals looks the value play here, with the numbers highlighting a likely home victory without the game descending into a shootout.
Arsenal’s control is their defining trait. They rank fifth for xPTS at 5.35 and have conceded only 0.67 non-penalty xG per match. Their matches average just 1.65 total xG, one of the lowest figures in the league, and they have given away the third-fewest shots in the box. That defensive dominance suggests Forest will struggle to create, especially away from home where they conceded heavily last season against stronger opponents.
At the other end, Arsenal’s attack has been efficient but not explosive. Without Bukayo Saka and Kai Havertz they are missing key players in both creativity and finishing. While they are still favourites to score twice, it is unlikely they will run up a huge total against a Forest side expected to sit deep.
Forest’s defensive flaws are clear: they rank second-worst for shots on target conceded and 12th for big chances conceded. Yet their matches have not turned chaotic, averaging 2.89 xG combined, with three of their four goals against coming in more controlled phases rather than wild exchanges.
The historical head-to-head adds weight. Last season, Arsenal beat Forest comfortably at home but did so without pushing beyond three goals. Given the Gunners’ injuries, a repeat feels realistic: Arsenal to take control, score two, and keep Forest at arm’s length.
The bet combines Arsenal’s dominance with their tendency to keep games contained. Arsenal win & under 3.5 goals balances safety with value, supported by both recent form and the underlying data.
GambleAware