The Premier League continues on Saturday at 5:30 as Arsenal host Leeds United at the Emirates. It is a meeting between one of the title contenders and a promoted side aiming to prove they belong at the top level.
Arsenal come into the game on the back of a 1-0 win at Old Trafford, a match where they limited Manchester United to low-quality efforts and took their chance when it came. That matched their home profile from last season, when they earned 39 points, conceded only 17 goals, and posted the second-best expected goals ratio in the league at 65%. Their attack is led by Viktor Gyokeres, the summer arrival from Sporting CP, who adds physicality and presence to a forward line already featuring Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli. Martin Zubimendi strengthens midfield whilst Noni Madueke has been added for extra attacking options.
Leeds also arrive with momentum, having beaten Everton 1-0 at Elland Road in their opening fixture. They generated 2.13 expected goals from 21 shots in that match and looked similar to the side that dominated away games in the Championship last season, where they had the best xG differential on the road. Daniel Farke has made targeted signings, bringing in Anton Stach, Lucas Perri and Sean Longstaff. Joel Piroe leads the attack supported by Wilfried Gnonto and Daniel James, while Lucas Perri has replaced Illan Meslier in goal.
Head-to-head history is firmly in Arsenal’s favour. They are unbeaten in the last 11 meetings, winning nine. Leeds will need to defy that record and step up their level to make Saturday evening’s contest competitive.
How the bookies view it: Arsenal clear favourites
Arsenal are clear favourites at 2/7, which implies a win probability of around 78%, while Leeds are out at 21/4 (16%) and the draw is 21/4 (also 16%). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 11/20, translating to a 65% chance, while both teams to score at 30/29 carries an implied probability of 51%. The odds point strongly towards an Arsenal win, but with some uncertainty over how many goals Leeds can contribute.
Head to Head: Gunners dominate
The head-to-head record between Arsenal and Leeds is heavily weighted towards Arsenal. Across the last 11 meetings in all competitions, Arsenal have won 9 and drawn 2, with Leeds failing to record a single victory. The goal difference in that period is 23–7 in Arsenal’s favour, averaging +1.45 per game.
Recent Premier League clashes underline the trend. Arsenal won 4-1 at the Emirates in April 2023, 1-0 at Elland Road earlier that season, and 2-1 at home in May 2022. They also secured a 4-1 win at Elland Road in December 2021. Leeds’ only creditable result in the league since their return was the 0-0 at home in November 2020.
In cup ties, Arsenal have also dominated, winning 2-0 in the League Cup in October 2021, 1-0 in the FA Cup in January 2020, and 1-0 in 2012. Leeds’ last victory over Arsenal came back in 2003, meaning the Gunners have put together over 20 years of dominance in the fixture.
Players to watch: Gyokeres to prove a point
Viktor Gyokeres looks a strong candidate to commit at least one foul when Arsenal face Leeds. His Premier League debut at Old Trafford was frustrating, with the striker failing to register a shot and being withdrawn after just 59 minutes. That sort of performance will fuel his determination to make an impression in his first outing at the Emirates, and his aggressive style means fouls are often part of that. Against Manchester United he committed three fouls, showing how he uses his physical presence to compete with defenders, sometimes a little too forcefully.
At Sporting last season, he averaged just shy than one foul per 90, but he was also the most fouled player in Portugal, suggesting that contact and tussles are central to his game. In England, that physical edge is likely to see referees penalise him more often. Backing Gyokeres to commit at least one foul makes plenty of sense.
Predicted line-ups
Arsenal (4-3-3): Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori; Zubimendi, Rice, Odegaard; Saka, Gyokeres, Martinelli.
Leeds United (4-3-3): Perri; Bogle, Rodon, Struijk, Gudmundsson; Longstaff, Stach, Tanaka; James, Piroe, Gnonto.
Anything else catch the eye?
Arsenal to win and over 2.5 goals looks a strong play in this game. At the Emirates last season they averaged 1.78 xG per match and produced over 11 shots inside the box on average, the second-highest figure in the league. That level of sustained pressure in dangerous areas makes it likely they will create enough to score more than once against Leeds.
Leeds showed their attacking intent straight away in their opening win against Everton. They attempted 21 shots, 12 of them from inside the penalty area, and finished with 2.13 xG. While the game ended 1-0, the underlying process pointed to a side that is willing to take risks and commit bodies forward. That approach can lead to chances of their own but also leaves them exposed to a team of Arsenal’s quality.
Last season in the Championship, Leeds conceded only 18 away goals and allowed just 0.77 xGA per match, but the gap to Premier League opposition is vast. Handling Saka, Martinelli and Gyokeres is a completely different challenge, and Arsenal’s bench depth, with Madueke, Nwaneri and Trossard, means the pressure rarely drops.
Head-to-head trends also favour goals. Four of the last five league meetings have produced three or more, with Arsenal running out 4-1 and 4-2 winners in two of them. Given their heavy favouritism in the market, combining Arsenal to win with over 2.5 goals provides more attractive value than the short price on a straight home win.
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