Argentina host Colombia in a World Cup qualifier, with the home side looking to continue their dominant campaign. Argentina have already secured top spot in the group with 34 points from 15 matches, sitting 10 points clear of second-placed Ecuador.
They come into this fixture on a four-game winning streak, having conceded just one goal during that run. At home, Argentina have won six of seven qualifiers, with their only loss coming in a 2-0 defeat to Uruguay. That result, however, was harsh on the hosts, who controlled the game, winning the shot count 12-6 and shots on target 3-2, while Uruguay scored with their only two efforts on target.
Colombia, meanwhile, are in poor form. They have failed to win any of their last five qualifiers, losing three and drawing two. Their overall record stands at W5-D6-L4. Away from home, Colombia have managed just one win in seven games, drawing three and losing three. They have scored only five goals on the road while conceding seven, including defeats in each of their last three away matches, where they have allowed an average of two goals per game.
How the bookies view it: Hosts should win it
Bookmakers currently price Argentina as 4/5 favourites to win their upcoming World Cup qualifier against Colombia, with the draw at 13/5 and a Colombia victory seen as an upset at 17/4. In the goals markets, both teams to score is priced at 21/20, while over 2.5 goals is available at 123/100. These prices reflect expectations of a tight, low-scoring contest—consistent with recent history between the sides.
Head to head: Argentina hold the advantage
Argentina and Colombia have faced each other 41 times, with Argentina holding a clear edge in the rivalry. Argentina has won 23 matches, Colombia 10, and eight have ended in draws, with Argentina outscoring Colombia 83 to 51 overall. Recent encounters have been competitive: Colombia claimed a 2–1 victory in the reverse fixture in September 2024, whilst Argentina won the 2024 Copa America final 1–0 after extra time. Over the last 11 meetings between the two sides, matches have tended to be tight and low-scoring, averaging just 1.73 goals per game. “Both teams to score – No” has landed in seven of those 11 games, and only four of the 11 have gone over 2.5 goals.
Predicted line-ups
Both Argentina and Colombia are dealing with key. Argentina will be without Alexis Mac Allister, Paulo Dybala, and Giovani Lo Celso as they are side lined with injuries. Lionel Messi has returned to the squad after a long absence and is expected to play, though his minutes may be managed due to recent fitness concerns. Colombia, meanwhile, are missing Rafael Santos Borre, Juan Fernando Quintero, and Jhon Cordoba through injury but have no suspensions. Luis Javier Suarez has been called up to replace the injured Santos Borre, and the rest of the squad is expected to be available.
Argentina (4-3-3): Martinez; Molina, Romero, Otamendi, Tagliafico; De Paul, Fernandez, Paredes; Messi, Lautaro, Alvarez
Colombia (4-3-3): Varga;, Munoz, Mina, Lucumi, Machado; Rios, Lerma, Asprilla; Diaz, Duran, Rodriguez
Players to watch: Rios to strike
Richard Rios has been a reliable presence for Colombia throughout the World Cup qualifying campaign, starting seven matches in midfield. While he didn’t start last time out, he is widely expected to return to the starting XI against Argentina. Despite playing just 16 minutes off the bench in the previous match against Peru, he still managed to register two shots, underlining his attacking intent even in limited minutes.
Across his seven starts, Rios has recorded 11 shots and four on target, averaging 1.57 shots per start. He has managed at least one shot in six of those seven starts, and has hit two or more in three of them, showing he’s more than capable of contributing offensively when given the opportunity. With his likely return to the lineup and a tendency to shoot from range, Rios represents a strong option in the shots market—especially in a game where Colombia may look to test Argentina from distance given their solid defensive record.
Anything else catch the eye?
Argentina to win and under 3.5 goals looks like an excellent betting angle. The hosts have already secured top spot in the group and come into the game on a four-match winning streak, conceding just once in that run. Their home form has been particularly strong, winning six of seven qualifiers while keeping five clean sheets, highlighting their defensive dominance in Buenos Aires.
Colombia, on the other hand, are winless in their last five qualifiers and have managed just one win from seven away games. They have scored only five goals on the road in this campaign and have failed to find the net in three of those matches. Colombia’s games have averaged just 2.13 goals overall, but that drops to a low 1.79 away from home—reinforcing the likelihood of another tight, low-scoring contest.
Both teams are missing key players, which could further limit attacking output and lead to a more controlled, conservative match. Given Argentina’s consistent ability to grind out wins and Colombia’s struggles to pose a threat away from home, backing Argentina to win and under 3.5 goals covers the likely scenario of a measured home victory without the game turning into a shootout. Notably, nine of Argentina’s 11 qualifying wins have come in games with under 3.5 goals, making this a bet well supported by both form and stats.
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