Al Nassr vs Damac
, KO: 19:00 , King Saud University Stadium
Will Cristiano Ronaldo finally win a title with Al Nassr after his team lost yet another final last week? Everything will be decided in the final round of the Saudi Professional League, with Al-Alami holding a two-point lead over their arch-rivals Al Hilal.
On paper, Al Nassr have a much easier task on Thursday, as they host relegation-battling Damac at home. Their rivals will be visiting Al Fayha. But the fact that the three points will determine whether Damac play in the top flight next year sets the stage for high tension, and the hosts will have to play their best football.
The draw in the derby a week ago was only the second home game all season that Al Nassr failed to win, so they have reason to feel confident heading into this match.
The team averages 2.6 goals per home game, with a goal difference of 42:11 across 16 matches. This also shows that they have conceded the fewest goals at home this season.
On the other side, Damac have struggled on the road all season, with just two wins in 16 matches. Only two teams have scored fewer goals than them, and their away goal difference is a concerning 13:31. They have also lost their last three away matches in a row.
How the bookies view it: Overwhelming home advantage
Bookmakers see no other outcome than a convincing home win, with the odds so low that they’re not even worth looking at. It only makes sense if you plan to bet against the favourites, as Damac are available at 12/1.
However, you can still back Al Nassr at 1/10, and the draw is priced at 8/1.
Recent head-to-head: Al Nassr won nine in a row
Al Nassr and Damac have faced each other a total of 14 times since 2019, and you can probably guess which team dominates the rivalry.
Al Nassr have 11 wins in those 14 matches, with Damac’s only victory coming in 2021 at home. Al-Alami have won the last nine H2Hs, but the first one this season was relatively close (2-1).
Players to watch: Felix to Ronaldo for the title
You probably know that Al Nassr’s squad currently features a number of the biggest football stars from the recent past. Aside from Cristiano Ronaldo, who will certainly give his all in this match, we’d like to highlight Joao Felix, who is shining in his debut season with the team.
In 44 appearances for the team across all competitions, he has 25 goals and 17 assists, and his partnership with Ronaldo is a joy to watch.
Backed a player to find the net? Check our Goalscorer Betting guide to see how the markets work and where to find value.
Probable line-ups
Al Nassr: Bento, Martinez, Al-Amri, Simakan, Boushal, Coman, Al-Najei, Mane, Al-Hassan, Felix, Ronaldo
Damac: Kerwin, Al-Obaid, Bedrane, Harkass, Hawsawi, Vada, Abdullah, Sylla, Meite, Arielson, Okita
Anything else catch the eye?
Al Nassr did not play poorly in the AFC Champions League 2 final against Gamba Osaka, and dominated the field for the entire 90 minutes. Unfortunately, they couldn’t convert their chances in the final third, which led to the defeat. The Japanese side scored with their only shot on target and won the trophy with an xG of 0.12.
We probably can’t imagine how fired up the hosts will be for this final round, and we don’t see how they could afford another mistake. We expect them to dominate from the first to the last minute, but the bookmakers expect the same.
The odds for the standard markets are minimal, so we’ll look at alternative options. For now, the best bet seems to be Al Nassr scoring in both halves. We’d also consider them keeping a clean sheet, given that they’ll be facing one of the weakest attacks in the league.
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