Al-Hilal face Pachuca in a decisive Group A fixture at the Club World Cup, with their qualification hopes still alive. After opening with a 1-1 draw against Real Madrid and following that with a goalless stalemate against Salzburg, Al-Hilal sit on two points.
The task is simple: win this game, move to five points, and hope that Salzburg and Madrid do not cancel each other out. If there’s a winner in that match, three points here guarantees progression.
Motivation is a clear divider. Al-Hilal have everything to play for, while Pachuca are already eliminated. Two defeats from two means the Mexican side are out regardless of results elsewhere. That difference in urgency could be decisive, especially in a game where margins are likely to be tight.
Al-Hilal’s approach has been based around structure and control. They have dictated midfield, especially through Ruben Neves, who has been a calming influence and a creative hub. Against Salzburg, they produced 19 shots and generated 1.49 xG while limiting Salzburg to just 1.03 xG. Their 0-0 draw may have lacked goals, but the performance was solid.
Their draw against Madrid also showed resilience, and with qualification on the line, expect them to approach this game with more purpose. They have created chances without being reckless and defended well in open play. They now face a Pachuca side with no pressure and nothing to gain. In that context, Al-Hilal’s composure, structure, and game-state advantage makes them clear favourites to take all three points and stay in the tournament.
How the bookies view it: Goals with both teams to score
Bookmakers make Al-Hilal clear favourites for this one, pricing them at 8/15 to take all three points. Pachuca, already eliminated from the tournament, are out at 5/1, while the draw is available at 18/5. The odds reflect not just current form but also motivation, Al-Hilal need to win to have any chance of progressing, whereas Pachuca have nothing riding on the result.
There is also a strong expectation of goals. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1/2, and both teams to score is available at 8/13. Combining those two markets gives a price of 5/6, suggesting the game is likely to be open, with both sides expected to create and convert chances.
Head to head: First Meeting
There is no prior history between Al‑Hilal and Pachuca, they have never faced each other in any official match
Predicted line-ups
Al-Hilal (3-4-1-2): Bounou; Cancelo, Al Tombakti, Koulibaly; Lodi, Neves, Milinkovic Savic, Al Dawsari; Malcom; Leonardo, Al Dawsari.
Pachuca (4-2-3-1): Moreno; Rodriguez, Bauermann, Pereira, Gonzalez; Montiel, Bautista; Dominguez, Palavecino, Kenedy; Rondon
Players to watch: Montiel Masterclass
With Pachuca averaging 21 shots and 8.5 shots on target per game in this tournament, Elias Montiel should find himself in good positions to contribute again. He has already registered four shots with three on target, hitting the target in both matches so far. That attacking involvement fits a broader trend—domestically he has made 28 starts with 47 shots, 14 of them on target, a strong return for a deeper midfielder. Given Pachuca’s high-volume approach in the final third and Montiel’s willingness to step forward, he is likely to get opportunities once more against an Al-Hilal side that has allowed more shots on target than all but three teams in the competition.
Anything else catch the eye?
This match may not decide Pachuca’s fate, but it has all the ingredients for a high-scoring contest. Both teams have shown a clear attacking intent throughout the tournament, and with little to lose on either side, the tone is likely to be open and aggressive from the outset.
Pachuca, in particular, have brought a huge amount of energy to both games. They produced 25 shots in their 3-1 defeat to Real Madrid, the most of any team in round two and registered 11 shots on target. They generated 1.81 xG in that game while conceding just 1.06 xGA, a performance that deserved more than a two-goal defeat. In their opening match, a 2-1 loss to Salzburg, they still created 1.40 xG, again showing they are a consistent threat in the final third. After the first two games, no side in the competition has registered more shots than Pachuca.
Defensively, Al-Hilal look vulnerable when tested. Only three teams in the tournament have conceded more shots on target and only six have allowed more total shots. Against Salzburg, they allowed 13 shots and six on target despite posting a clean sheet. Their 1.03 xGA in that game shows they gave up good opportunities and were slightly fortunate not to concede.
This looks like a fixture where both sides will create chances. Pachuca are already out but continue to play with freedom. Al-Hilal must win and will be aggressive. Both teams rank near the top in attacking output and xG metrics, this is one of the most statistically promising matchups for goals. Backing over 2.5 goals or both teams to score makes strong sense.
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