AFC Wimbledon enter the second leg of their League Two playoff semi-final with a narrow 1-0 advantage and are well placed to finish the job. Their game plan is built on structure, discipline, and control—qualities well suited to protecting a lead in knockout football.
Wimbledon’s strength at Plough Lane has underpinned their season. They earned 44 points from 23 home games, conceding only 16 goals – the best home defensive record in League Two. Against top-eight opponents at home, they have recorded W4-D1-L2, proving they can handle strong opposition on their own turf.
Recent form also favours the Dons. They have avoided defeat in 10 of their last 16 matches, often managing tight games with composure. Their ability to dictate tempo and stay organised will be vital with a lead to defend.
Notts County, meanwhile, have lost four of their last six and failed to win in any of their seven away matches against top-eight sides. Their attacking output has dipped sharply, and they are no longer generating quality chances.
Wimbledon return home with momentum, defensive assurance, and the confidence to finish the job.
How the bookies view it: Goals hard to come by
Bookmakers slightly favour AFC Wimbledon to win the second leg of their League Two playoff semi-final against Notts County. Holding a 1-0 lead from the first leg and with home advantage, Wimbledon are 13/10 to win in 90 minutes. Notts County are 9/4, with the draw at 23/10, suggesting a tight contest. Under 2.5 goals is 7/10, reflecting the low-scoring trend – Wimbledon’s last 16 games have averaged 1.75 goals, and five of the last six meetings between the sides have gone under. Both teams to score is 10/11, though County’s lack of attacking threat makes “No” a popular alternative.
Head to head: Wimbledon dominate
Since 2015, AFC Wimbledon and Notts County have met seven times in competitive action, with Wimbledon clearly dominating the head-to-head. The Dons have won six of those meetings, while Notts County have managed just one victory. Remarkably, none of the seven encounters have ended in a draw.
Across those matches, Wimbledon have scored 13 goals, averaging 1.86 per game, while County have netted just four, an average of 0.57. Their meetings have averaged 2.43 goals per game, but recent history suggests even tighter affairs.
This season, Wimbledon beat Notts County 2–0 at home and followed it up with a 1–0 away win in the first leg of the playoff semi-final. County’s only success came via a 1–0 win at Meadow Lane. Each of the last five clashes has gone under 2.5 goals, with neither side scoring in the same match.
Players to watch: Abbott to fire for the Magpies
George Abbott has emerged as one of Notts County’s most consistent midfield threats in recent weeks, especially when it comes to getting shots away. Over his last 17 League Two starts, he has taken 35 shots—averaging just over two per game. He has registered two or more shots in 11 of those 17 appearances, highlighting his willingness to shoot from range or support the attack with late runs into the box. Even more telling is his reliability: he has managed at least one shot in 16 of those 17 games, a strong indicator of how regularly he features in County’s attacking sequences.
With Notts County trailing in the tie, they will need to adopt a more proactive approach in the second leg.
Predicted line-ups
David McGoldrick has been nursing a hamstring issue and remained an unused substitute in Notts County’s final regular-season fixture against Doncaster Rovers. Alassana Jatta is suspended for the second leg after receiving a red card in stoppage time.
For AFC Wimbledon, Sam Hutchinson has had heart surgery meaning he will miss the rest of the season.
Wimbledon: Goodman; Harbottle, Lewis, Johnson; Tilley, Reeves, Hippolyte, Smith, Neufville; Browne, Bugiel
Notts County: Bass; Macari, Platt, Bedeau, Gordon; Abbott, Palmer, Jones, Grant; McGoldrick, Whitaker
Anything else catch the eye?
With a 1-0 aggregate advantage, Wimbledon have every reason to stay compact and disciplined. Their style all season has centred on control rather than chaos, and with a place in the final at stake, they are unlikely to take unnecessary risks.
Wimbledon’s recent league games point clearly toward a defensive outlook. In their last 16 matches, the average goals per game is just 1.75. That is not down to luck—it’s a product of a team that keeps opponents at arm’s length and plays within narrow margins. While they do not rack up goals, they are experts in slowing down games and maintaining structure.
Notts County are under pressure to chase the tie, but their recent attacking output is unconvincing. Across their last eight games, they have managed only two big chances and an average of 0.59 xG from open play—an indicator of their struggle to generate real threats.
GambleAware