AC Milan host Genoa in the 16th round and despite the more modest opponent, this fixture carries the same huge weight for the Rossoneri, who are far behind the leaders.
AC Milan's form has improved since the early days of the season but the team is likely to finish the season out of the Top 4. The team is well out of the title race and sits nine points below the strongest group.
Although the Rossoneri have two defeats in the last 10 games in all competitions, they hardly ever looked impressive. Maybe the 1-3 win over Real Madrid in Spain is the only exception.
But overall, Milan rarely feel comfortable even against mediocre teams. The 2-1 against Crvena Zvezda, which they won with a late winner in the 87th minute is a good example.
Moreover, Milan lost to both Atalanta and Napoli and showed nothing in those matches, so there is clearly a gap in class between them and the other usual top teams.
In the meantime, Genoa are finally starting to look better after one of their worst season starts ever. The team is on a five-game unbeaten streak in Serie A, which helped them put the relegation zone behind their backs.
Of course, Genoa need to win more matches to consider themselves saved but every point is progress and they almost tripled their points over the previous month.
How the bookies view it: Odds suggest a one-sided affair
Bookmakers gave Milan an overwhelming advantage, as the Rossoneri are expected to win on Sunday. You can back them at 1/3, the draw at 15/4, or Genoa at 13/2.
Recent head to head: Milan usually win but it is never easy
This rivalry rarely produces a dull watch and the majority of the H2Hs have been action-packed. AC Milan have the upper hand, as expected after they won seven out of the last 10 meetings. However, it should be noted that Genoa usually had something to say in those games and scored almost every time.
Players to watch: Leao with back-to-back goals
AC Milan continue with the injury crisis and Paulo Fonseca will have to force new rotations. Luka Jovic, Alessandro Florenzi, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Christian Pulisic, and Ismael Bennacer remain sidelined. Unfortunately, they will be joined by Alvaro Morata, who got hurt during the mid-week CL clash.
Genoa have similar problems, with Jeff Ekhator, Koni De Winter, Junior Messias, Ruslan Malinovskyi, and Caleb Ekuban out for this fixture.
With the long list of injuries up front, Rafael Leao will have to step up again. He scored one of the goals against Zvezda and was involved in three goals over the last three fixtures.
Probable line-ups
AC Milan: Maignan, Emerson, Gabbia, Thiaw, Hernandez, Fofana, Musah, Chukwueze, Reijnders, Leao, Abraham
Genoa: Leali, Sabelli, Bani, Vasquez, Martin, Frendrup, Badelj, Thorsby, Zanoli, Miretti, Pinamonti
Anything else catch the eye?
Genoa are an interesting case. The team is one of two without a single home win this season. All three of their victories came away from home, including their two most recent. They beat Parma and Udinese and kept a clean sheet in both matches.
The Red and Blues are hardly a high-scoring side but their motivation will be high. Last season, the same fixture ended in a 3-3 draw. Overall, Genoa scored in four out of its five visits at this stadium.
Milan also conceded in four of their last five games in all competitions. These stats make us believe that the Over is the best option for this match.
This Serie A match between AC Milan and Genoa will be played on Dec 15, 2024 and kick off at 19:45. Check below for our tipsters best AC Milan vs Genoa prediction. You may also visit our dedicated betting previews section for the most up to date previews.
