Premier League: Player fouls tips & predictions

The Premier League fouls betting markets allow punters to wager on the total number of transgressions in a match, specific player fouls, players to be fouled, or which team will commit the most fouls.

You can bet on over/under fouls, team fouls, or individual players.

Below you can find our Premier League fouls tips and betting predictions ahead of this weekend's action.

Manchester Utd vs Nottingham Forest

Manchester United host Nottingham Forest in a Saturday evening clash televised on Sky Sports, with both teams looking to bounce back from defeats. Referee Darren England will oversee the game, and he has averaged 6.2 cards per match across his five Premier League appearances this season, with an average of 24 fouls per game. This sets the stage for what could be a feisty encounter.

Both teams may look to adopt a more cautious approach, happy to allow their opponents spells of possession. For Nottingham Forest, Morgan Gibbs-White is expected to start in the advanced role just behind striker Chris Wood, putting him in direct competition with Manchester United’s central midfielders. This will include either Casemiro, Kobbie Mainoo, Manuel Ugarte or Bruno Fernandes, who played in a deeper role midweek.

If Ugarte plays, it is worth noting he has been fouled at least once in every Premier League start this season. Bruno Fernandes has been fouled an average of 1.07 times per game, while Casemiro averages 1.33 fouls drawn per match. On the other side, Morgan Gibbs-White has committed 17 fouls in his 10 league starts for Forest this season, making at least one foul in eight of those matches. He has also been booked in both of his last two outings.

Gibbs-White’s foul numbers this season show some variation. Before his suspension, he recorded fouls of three, three, two, one, and four in consecutive matches. However, he has calmed down recently, committing just four fouls in his last five appearances. Since returning from injury, his game time has been managed, typically playing around an hour per match. Given the important of the game, he should play a significant role.

This is a crucial game for both teams, and Forest will be determined to avoid consecutive defeats. Gibbs-White committed at least one foul in both matches against United last season, and given his role and physical style of play, he is likely to be involved in the midfield battle again.

• Best Bet: Morgan Gibbs White to commit over 1.5 fouls at 2.50 with Bet365

Everton vs Liverpool

The Merseyside Derby takes centre stage on Saturday lunchtime, with Liverpool coming into the game in fine form. They should have too much firepower for an Everton side that has struggled this season. Ashley Young is expected to start at right-back for the Toffees, which will pit him against either Cody Gakpo or Luis Díaz. At 39 years old, Young may find it difficult to cope with the pace and movement of Liverpool’s forward line.

This season, Young has committed 12 fouls in 12 matches, making at least one foul in 10 of those games. Notably, the only two matches where he failed to commit a foul were when he played at left-back—a position in which he may not feel as comfortable. However, when playing right-back, he has committed 10 fouls in 10 games, making at least one foul in each of those fixtures. In last season's Merseyside Derby at Goodison Park, Young played only 44 minutes, while at Anfield, he was sent off after 37 minutes.

Michael Oliver will officiate this game, and he has averaged 5.17 cards per match across his 12 Premier League fixtures this season, with an average of 21.42 fouls per game.

Another interesting betting angle involves James Tarkowski, who is likely to be up against Darwin Nunez. Tarkowski could struggle with Nunez's pace and may look to assert himself with some early challenges. So far this season, Tarkowski has committed 14 fouls in 14 games. In his last three appearances against Liverpool, he has committed 2, 2, and 4 fouls, showing a consistent pattern.

For this match,  Young can be backed at 2.37 to commit two or more fouls, while Tarkowski is priced at 2.25 to make two or more fouls. Both bets offer good value, given the matchup dynamics and the physical nature of this rivalry

• Best Bet: Ashley Young to commit over 1.5 fouls at 2.37 with bet365
• Best Bet: James Tarkowski to commit over 1.5 fouls at 2.25 with bet365

Tottenham vs Chelsea

Spurs host Chelsea at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday in what promises to be an exciting, high-scoring encounter. Both sides are known for playing on the front foot but have shown defensive vulnerabilities this season. Chelsea rank fifth for the most fouls committed in the Premier League, while Tottenham are the most fouled team in the division.

Dejan Kulusevski has been fouled 17 times this season, drawing at least one foul in 12 of his appearances. Although he was only on the bench against Fulham, he is expected to return to the starting lineup against Chelsea. At the time of writing, Spurs' match against Bournemouth has yet to take place, but given that Kulusevski has been fouled in 92% of his games, this trend is likely to continue in what should be an intense and open game.

Both teams are highly motivated—Chelsea currently sit second in the league, while Spurs are down in eighth, trailing their London rivals by eight points. With Chelsea's high foul rate and the importance of the game, Kulusevski looks like a strong candidate to be fouled multiple times.

The odds reflect some value in this market. Kulusevski is priced at 1.44 to be fouled once, implying a 90% probability, which translates to odds of roughly 1.09. However, for him to be fouled twice, the odds are 3.0 with Sky Bet, suggesting just a 33% probability—undervaluing the likelihood in this matchup.

With Anthony Taylor officiating—who averages 21.25 fouls and 4.17 cards per Premier League match—this fixture should see plenty of challenges. Given Chelsea’s tendency to commit fouls and the open nature of the game, Kulusevski is well-positioned to be fouled multiple times. For a different kind of bet, you can back Kulusevski with have 3+ foul involvements at 1.80 with Skybet, a bet which would have won in six of his 11 starts this season.

• Best Bet: Dejan Kulusevski to win 2+ fouls at 3.0 with Skybet

Who has committed the most fouls and who has suffered the most fouls?

Which match will have the highest booking points total?

Booking points in betting refer to a system where points are assigned based on yellow and red cards shown to players during a match.

Generally, a yellow card is worth 10 points, while a red card is valued at 25 points. In some cases, two yellow cards resulting in a red are counted as 35 points.

Manchester Utd vs Nottingham Forest

Saturday's evening clash between Manchester United and Nottingham Forest promises to be an intriguing encounter, particularly with referee Darren England in charge. England has averaged 64 booking points per match in his five Premier League games this season, issuing 50, 30, 130, 60, and 60 booking points, respectively. He also averages 24 fouls per game and has shown two red cards.

Manchester United have been no strangers to disciplinary issues this season, averaging 28.93 booking points across their 14 matches. At home, their average rises to 33.57 booking points per game. United have collected 20 or more booking points in six of their seven home games and 40 or more in three of those. Their games this season have averaged a total of 63.93 booking points, with United contributing 28.57 and their opponents adding an impressive 35.36.

Nottingham Forest’s away matches have been equally card-heavy. In six of their seven away games, their hosts have collected 30 or more booking points, with Manchester City the only team to fall short (20 points). Forest have collected 20 or more booking points in all seven of their away games and 30 or more in six of those. On average, Forest's away games see them accumulate 37.1 booking points, while their opponents rack up an even higher 41.43.

The recommended bet takes advantage of this trend. The wager is over 29.5 booking points for Manchester United and over 19.5 booking points for Nottingham Forest, which is priced at 2.37 with William Hill. This same bet is available at slightly lower odds of 2.2 with Bet365.

Notably, this bet would have won in six of Forest’s seven away games and in three of United’s seven home games this season. With Darren England’s card-happy track record, a high card count looks very likely. For those seeking a simpler option, backing over five Asian cards at 1.8 with Bet365 is also worth considering.

• Best Bet: Manchester Utd over 29.5 booking points Forest over 19.5 booking points at 2.37 with William Hill
• Best Bet: Over 5.0 Asian Cards at 1.80 with Bet365

Player to be carded acca – our picks

Will Hughes looks like a strong candidate to pick up a card in Crystal Palace’s upcoming match and backing him at 4.0 with Bet365 offers solid value. Hughes has already collected six yellow cards this season despite starting only seven matches for Palace. He is expected to start in midfield, where he will likely be tasked with containing the City midfield full of movement and pace. Hughes has committed 21 fouls in 12 appearances. In his seven starts it is now 16 fouls.

The referee, Rob Jones, has shown an average of 5.78 cards across his nine Premier League matches this season, further boosting the chances of disciplinary action in what could be a physical game. Considering Hughes’ track record and the matchup, this bet appears well-priced.

• Will Hughes to be shown a card at 4.0 with Bet365

Chelsea versus Spurs promises to be an exciting matchup, with both teams expected to play on the front foot. The left-hand side of Spurs' attack, featuring Heung-Min Son or Brennan Johnson, could prove to be a challenge for Chelsea's Malo Gusto, who will have his hands full trying to contain their pace and movement. While Gusto has only committed nine fouls in 10 starts, he has already been booked twice this season, highlighting his vulnerability in high-pressure situations.

Chelsea's discipline has been a concern this season, with only Southampton collecting more cards. The Blues have picked up 47 yellow cards in 14 matches, an average of 3.36 per game. Meanwhile, Tottenham's matches have seen their opponents collect an average of three cards per game, reinforcing the likelihood of Chelsea picking up bookings in this fixture.

Referee Anthony Taylor, who will officiate the game, adds to the potential for cards. Taylor has averaged 4.17 cards per Premier League match this season, further supporting the expectation of a card-heavy encounter between these two attacking sides.

• Malo Gusto be shown a card at 3.9 with Unibet

Harry Clarke is set to play at right-back for Ipswich against Bournemouth, and so far this season, he has struggled to adapt to the step up in competition from the Premier League. In his first start, he was sent off for two bookable offenses. Although he managed to avoid committing a foul against Crystal Palace when facing Eberechi Eze, he clearly struggled to cope with Eze's pace and movement.

This weekend, Clarke will face Marcus Tavernier and Milos Kerkez. Tavernier averages 0.85 fouls drawn per game, while Kerkez is fouled an average of once per game. Both players possess the pace and movement that could cause significant problems for Clarke, as seen in Ipswich's game against Brentford, where Keane Lewis-Potter repeatedly troubled him, leading to fouls and eventually a red card. Clarke's defensive discipline will need to improve if he is to handle the threat posed by Bournemouth's dynamic wide players.

• Harry Clarke to be shown a card at 4.0 with Bet365

Combining our three-player selections into a three-fold comes in at 48.0 with Bet365.

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