The 2024/2025 Premier League title race was not as close as many expected, with Liverpool running away with it way before the season's end. Arne Slot's Reds were impressive last season and rightfully took the crown from Manchester City.
That being said, all 20 teams have made a number of new signings ready for the new 2025/26 season, and squads are now taking shape with just one week of the transfer window remaining. In this article, we will take an early look at the Premier League winner odds.
Top 10 best Premier League winner odds
| Liverpool |
7/4 |
| Arsenal |
7/4 |
| Man City |
9/2 |
| Chelsea |
8/1 |
| Tottenham |
25/1 |
| Man Utd |
40/1 |
| Newcastle |
100/1 |
| Aston Villa |
150/1 |
| Nottingham Forest |
150/1 |
| Brighton |
500/1 |
Premier League favourites
Liverpool
Liverpool started the season as the outright favourites to win the Premier League, but their odds have since widened despite winning both of their opening matches.
In truth, the Reds have been fortunate to beat both Bournemouth and Newcastle. They needed late goals to win both matches, after conceding twice in each one. The Newcastle performance was particularly alarming, as they played the majority of the match against ten men.
On the flip side, they've managed to win without playing at their best, which begs the question of how good they will be once things click.
Arsenal
Arsenal will be delighted with how they have started the new season, scoring six goals and conceding zero. They won ugly away at Old Trafford before putting on a show in front of their home fans against Leeds United.
Arsenal's hopes could hinge on how well Viktor Gyokeres performs. The Swede scored 68 goals in 66 games for Sporting Lisbon last season, so Arsenal will hope that he can be nearly as efficient in the Premier League next season.
He did not manage to score on his debut away at Manchester United, but scored two against Leeds United in his home debut.
Manchester City
After years of dominance, the Cityzens finally showed weakness last season, and those weaknesses were as prominent as ever in their 2-0 defeat to Tottenham in the second week of the new season. City looked light at the back and spineless in the middle.
They look at least a level below Arsenal and Liverpool, and will need more reinforcements over the final week of the season if they are to bridge that gap.
Chelsea
The Blues have finished last season in great form, securing a spot in the Champions League by finishing fourth in the league and winning the Conference League.
Since then, Chelsea have gone on a tear to win the Club World Cup, beating the reigning European champions, PSG, in the final with a convincing display. As a result, their odds have dropped significantly, and they are now at 8/1 to win the Premier League.
Based on their showing at the CWC, these odds look very tempting. After all, Chelsea have won 14 of their last 16 games last season, counting the Club World Cup, and if they can build on the form they showed in the USA and in their first away match against West Ham, these odds could tumble further.
Who will win the Premier League in 2025/26?
It is hard to look past the champions, Liverpool, as the main candidates to defend the title, especially so soon after the end of the season and without knowing what the summer transfer window will bring.
Still, if we had to place a bet now, our choice would be Arsenal. It feels that after years of being the Premier League's bridesmaid, it is their time to finally become the bride.
To achieve this, Arsenal will need Gyokeres to score at something close to the rate he did for Sporting. If he does, then their first title since 2004 could await.
Premier League outright winner betting trends
Here are some trends to consider when placing a bet on the Premier League outright winner.
The last 10 Premier League title winners
The past decade has been dominated by Manchester City, with six Premier League trophies following their first triumph back in 2011/12. The only other teams to lift the Premier League trophy over the past 10 editions are Chelsea, Liverpool and – most incredibly of all – Leicester, who stood as 5000/1 outsiders in some places ahead of their miracle 2015/16 title campaign:
| Liverpool |
2025 |
84 |
86 |
| Manchester City |
2024 |
91 |
96 |
| Manchester City |
2023 |
89 |
94 |
| Manchester City |
2022 |
93 |
99 |
| Manchester City |
2021 |
86 |
83 |
| Liverpool |
2020 |
99 |
85 |
| Manchester City |
2019 |
98 |
95 |
| Manchester City |
2018 |
100 |
106 |
| Chelsea |
2017 |
93 |
85 |
| Leicester |
2016 |
81 |
68 |
Points gained by Premier League title winners
Based on current trends in the Premier League title market, the average requirement to win the Premier League over the past decade is for a team to get 91.4 points—a significant increase compared to the average tallies needed earlier in the Premier League’s lifetime.
City’s dominance has played a big role in that, especially with their record-high total of 100 points in 2017/18.
Number of goals scored by Premier League title winners
Teams that are particularly lethal up front may have a special market opened up for them, where a bettor can back them to hit a particular quota of goals. City have scored 90+ goals in all but one of the preceding seven seasons, and on three occasions, they even reached 100.
More Premier League predictions
- Premier League relegation tips
- Premier League Golden Boot odds and favourites
- Next Premier League manager sacked odds
- Premier League top four odds and favourites
Lifelong Ipswich Town supporter who recently graduated from Durham University in French and German. Have developed a passion for European football based on my links abroad and am an avid supporter of Werder Bremen and Auxerre. Joined the MFT team in October 2024 and looking to take my first steps into the world of football journalism.
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