Every July we get asked the same question. Why are pre season friendlies so difficult to price? The answer is simple. These matches are nothing like competitive football.
Results matter far less than fitness, preparation and player assessment, which means the usual data points often carry much less weight. Here is what we focus on before getting involved.
Rotation changes everything
Rotation is the first thing on our checklist. Many managers plan to use two completely different XIs, changing almost the entire team at half time. A side dominating the opening 45 minutes might finish with a completely different group of players, making the full time result difficult to judge.
We always wait for confirmed team news rather than assuming a club is anywhere near full strength.
Last season's data has limited value
Last season's numbers often tell only part of the story. A new manager usually brings a new formation, different tactical ideas and a fresh view of the squad. Even clubs with the same manager spend pre season experimenting with systems, roles and partnerships before settling on their strongest side.
The team listed on paper rarely reflects what supporters will see once the competitive season begins.
Fitness levels are rarely equal
Fitness is one of the biggest edges in pre season. Players returning from international tournaments are often behind team mates who enjoyed a full summer break.
Those differences become most obvious during the final 20 minutes when fatigue begins to affect concentration and defensive organisation. Markets do not always reflect those physical gaps.
New signings need time
Summer signings and trialists create another layer of uncertainty. Managers use friendlies to assess players under match conditions rather than immediately building their strongest XI.
Most new arrivals are introduced gradually, often playing only a half or coming from the bench while they adapt to new tactical instructions and team mates.
World Cup absences matter
The 2026 World Cup creates another complication. Players involved deep into the tournament will receive extended breaks before returning to club football, leaving many squads without key players for much of July.
Sunderland are one club likely to feel those absences, having seen a significant number of players involved internationally without the same squad depth as many Premier League rivals.
Manchester City also sent a large group of players to the World Cup, but their squad depth allows them far more flexibility. The disruption is unlikely to have the same impact because there are quality replacements throughout the squad.
Information beats statistics
Information carries far more value in July than it does once the season starts. During the season, bookmakers react to team news within minutes. Pre season markets receive far less attention. Managers regularly explain who will play and how many minutes individuals are expected to get. Local journalists often identify likely line ups from training sessions before official announcements, while players frequently reveal clues through social media.
Knowing a club intends to field its strongest XI for 60 minutes while the opposition rests most senior players is often enough to identify value before prices adjust. Limits are also lower, so markets receive less scrutiny. In pre season we are betting the information, not the badge.
Understanding managerial intent
Intent matters more than quality. These fixtures are designed to build fitness, test tactical ideas and evaluate players. Winning is rarely the priority. A defeat in July tells us almost nothing about how a team will perform once league football begins.
This becomes even more important during commercial tours in Asia and the United States, where player appearances, sponsor commitments and workload management often take priority over producing the strongest possible performance.
Treat friendly statistics with caution
Some markets become far less reliable during pre season. Card markets are one example. Referees generally allow games to flow far more than they would during competitive fixtures, producing inconsistent disciplinary numbers.
Individual player performances also need context. A striker scoring three goals against lower quality opposition in a friendly provides little evidence of what he will achieve once competitive football returns.
Where the value often sits
Results are rarely our preferred angle in pre season. Team and match goal markets usually provide stronger opportunities because attacking patterns develop faster than defensive organisation. Defensive structure often takes several weeks to build, creating games with more chances than the market expects.
Our preferred bet this week is the home side to score over 1.5 team goals at 5/6. Attacking sharpness tends to arrive before defensive discipline during the opening weeks of pre season, and those conditions continue to create value in the team goals market.
Another option is to wait until the game is around 15-20 minutes in and if its an open game with lots of chances then back over 0.5 first half goals once its an appropriate price. Early friendlies are not about winning but about fitness, team shape and bedding in new players which can create open games.
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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