England and Argentina meet at Atlanta Stadium on Wednesday with a place in the World Cup final at stake. It is the nations' first World Cup meeting since 2002 and arguably the biggest fixture of the tournament so far.
Argentina arrive as reigning world champions and second in the World Football Elo Ratings on 2177, with England fourth on 2097. That 80-point gap suggests Argentina hold the edge, although England's underlying performances throughout the knockout stage have been closer than the ratings imply. Both sides have required extra time to reach the last four and neither has looked defensively untouchable, creating the prospect of an open semi-final.
Argentina have extended their remarkable World Cup consistency under Lionel Scaloni. They won all three group matches before edging past Cape Verde 3-2 after extra time, overturning a two-goal deficit late on to beat Egypt 3-2, then overcoming Switzerland 3-1 after extra time despite being pushed hard for long periods.
Alexis Mac Allister opened the scoring from Lionel Messi's corner before Dan Ndoye equalised, and only Breel Embolo's late red card shifted momentum back towards Argentina. Jose Lopez created Julian Alvarez's extra-time winner before Lautaro Martinez sealed victory on the counter.
Messi remains the focal point of everything Argentina do. He has scored eight goals at this tournament, while Lautaro Martinez has added two and Julian Alvarez, Alexis Mac Allister and Enzo Fernandez have all contributed. Argentina have now scored in 15 consecutive World Cup matches and have netted at least twice in 11 straight games, setting a new tournament record. They have averaged 2.35 xG per knockout match while conceding only 0.61 xGA, although those defensive numbers have been helped by favourable match-ups against Cape Verde and Switzerland, with both teams happy to sit in.
England's route has looked less convincing on the scoreboard but more balanced in the underlying data. Thomas Tuchel's side recovered from behind to beat DR Congo 2-1 through a Harry Kane double, overcame Mexico 3-2 despite finishing with 10 men, then needed Jude Bellingham's extra time goal to beat Norway after Andreas Schjelderup had given the Scandinavians the lead. Bellingham equalised immediately before half-time. Norway then struck the woodwork and had another effort ruled out in the second half, with Tuchel admitting afterwards his side had “got lucky” and praising their “pure mentality”.
England have averaged 1.60 xG per knockout match while conceding 1.11 xGA. They have created fewer chances than Argentina but have also faced stronger attacking opposition. Bellingham has emerged as England's standout performer with six World Cup goals, while Kane continues to provide the focal point in attack.
How the bookies view it
England are priced at 17/10, implying a 37.0% chance of winning inside 90 minutes. The draw is 85/40, implying 32.0%, while Argentina are 43/20, implying 31.7%.
Both teams to score is available at 19/20, an implied probability of 51.3%, while over 2.5 goals is 11/8, implying 42.1%.
My own Dixon-Coles style model, built using knockout-stage expected goals, makes Argentina stronger than the market suggests. I rate Argentina at 52% to win in 90 minutes, with both England and the draw at 24%. The bigger edge, though, comes in the goals market. My model makes over 2.5 goals a 54% chance compared with the market's implied 42.1%, reflecting how both teams have approached every knockout game so far.
Head to head: England have struggled against Argentina since 1966
Few World Cup rivalries carry the history of England against Argentina. The sides have met five times on football's biggest stage. England won the first meeting 1-0 in the 1966 quarter-finals before Argentina gained revenge with Diego Maradona's “Hand of God” goal and his stunning solo effort in the 1986 quarter-final.
England lost on penalties after a 2-2 draw in 1998 despite Michael Owen's memorable goal, before David Beckham's penalty secured a 1-0 group-stage victory in 2002. They have not faced each other in any competition since a friendly in 2005, making this the first meeting in over 20 years.
Player to watch: Lionel Messi dragging Argentina through each round
At 39, Lionel Messi continues to define Argentina's attack. He leads the tournament with eight goals and has added two assists, averaging a goal contribution every 53 minutes. His underlying numbers are equally impressive, producing 0.90 xG per 90 minutes and 1.46 expected goal involvements per 90.
Messi has also created seven big chances and 21 opportunities for team-mates, becoming the first player in World Cup history to reach 10 career assists after setting up Alexis Mac Allister against Switzerland. He remains Argentina's penalty taker, free-kick specialist and primary corner taker, meaning almost every dangerous attack involves him in some way. England's biggest challenge is limiting the service into Messi rather than trying to mark him out of the game completely.
Predicted line-ups
Argentina (4-1-3-2): Martinez; Molina, Romero, Lisandro Martinez, Tagliafico; Paredes; De Paul, Fernandez, Mac Allister; Messi, Alvarez.
England (4-2-3-1): Pickford; O'Reilly, Stones, Guehi, Konsa; Rice, Anderson; Saka, Bellingham, Gordon; Kane.
Anything else catch the eye?
Over 2.5 goals is the standout bet. Every knockout match involving these two sides has gone over 2.5 goals, while neither team has kept a clean sheet since the group stage. Argentina's defensive record of 0.61 xGA per knockout game looks outstanding, but it has come against Cape Verde, Egypt and Switzerland, none of whom offered England's attacking quality.
England have consistently played on the front foot under Thomas Tuchel, creating chances while leaving space at the other end. Argentina have taken a similarly aggressive approach, keeping both Julian Alvarez and Lionel Messi in the starting side rather than adding another midfielder.
My model makes over 2.5 goals a 54% chance against the market's implied 42.1% at 11/8. Both teams to score is also worth consideration, but over 2.5 goals remains the strongest play.
A smaller side bet on extra time also appeals. Almost half of all World Cup knockout matches since 2006 have gone beyond 90 minutes, yet the market continues to price that outcome considerably lower than the historical data suggests.
GambleAware