Alex Pereira and Magomed Ankalaev are set to share the Octagon for a light heavyweight showdown at UFC 313. The Brazilian has already defended his strap three times, but can he extend his streak against Ankalaev, who has waited so long to become a world champion? Here’s our Pereira vs Ankalaev prediction and fight analysis.
Tale of the tape
Pereira has an overall 12-2 MMA record. Both of his defeats, however, came during his middleweight days.
‘Poatan’ tasted defeat in his MMA debut when Quemuel Ottoni beat him via submission in Sao Paulo in 2015. Pereira did not give up, however, and bounced back with seven successive wins. He beat Israel Adesanya to win the UFC middleweight title, but lost it in the rematch.
After that, he has been fighting in the light heavyweight division. After beating Jan Blachowicz on his debut, Pereira won the vacant UFC light heavyweight belt by seeing off Jiri Prochazka. Prochazka would challenge for the title again, but he failed to avenge his loss. Pereira has also defended the title against Jamahal Hill and Khalil Rountree Jr.
Ankalaev, on the other hand, has fought in 22 professional fights and won 19 of them.
After a decorated career in the Russian scene, Ankalaev made his UFC debut in 2018. He lost to Paul Craig in that fight, which remains the only professional defeat in his career till now. Ankalaev had to put together a nine-fight winning streak to get a chance at challenging for the title.
His UFC 282 clash with Blachowicz, however, ended in a tie. After a no-contest against Johnny Walker, a subsequent KO against the Brazilian, and a unanimous decision win against Aleksandar Rakic, Ankalaev gets another opportunity to become the rightful owner of the UFC light heavyweight strap.
Alex Pereira vs Magomed Ankalaev hot tip: Pereira to win via TKO/KO
Pereira is the gold standard in the light heavyweight division now when it comes to punching. Ankalaev is an excellent grappler, but he should find it difficult to overcome Pereira, who has an impressive 70% takedown defence success rate.
If the battle remains a striking affair, Pereira’s fast and precise combinations will give Ankalaev serious trouble. The Brazilian also holds an advantage with his leg kicks, which are notorious for their sheer force and pinpoint accuracy.
Ankalaev’s struggles with leg kicks were on full display against Blachowicz, leaving him nearly limping by the end. If Pereira can exploit that weakness, Ankalaev could be in for a rough night.
We think Pereira will win this fight via TKO/KO.
Alex Pereira vs Magomed Ankalaev: Key stats
- Pereira's average fight length is 10 minutes and 38 seconds; Ankalaev's matches usually last 11 minutes and 37 seconds.
- With 63 percent accuracy, Pereira lands 5.46 strikes per minute; Ankalaev lands 3.64 strikes per minute with 52 percent accuracy.
- Ankalaev compensates for his striking limitations with his grappling prowess, averaging 0.92 takedowns per minute compared to Pereira’s 0.14.
- With success rates of 55% and 58%, respectively, Pereira and Ankalaev have almost the same defensive stats.
Fight odds and win probability
Here are the current Alex Pereira vs Magomed Ankalaev odds:
Alex Pereira: 4/5 (1.80) – Implied probability 55.56%
Magomed Ankalaev: 1/1 (2.00) – Implied probability 50%
*Alex Pereira vs Magomed Ankalaev betting odds from Boylesports, subject to change.
Keys to victory
Pereira has been a juggernaut in the light heavyweight division, but Ankalaev is a fighter also celebrated for his resilience. This is a battle between two fighters who have not tasted defeat in recent times. As the odds suggest, bookies are expecting this bout to be a close one. Let’s see what both fighters need to do individually to win this bout.
Alex Pereira – target Ankalaev’s legs
Pereira comes from a kickboxing record and it significantly boosts his chances in this particular matchup. Ankalaev often struggles to defend his legs. Pereira can put his kickboxing skills to use and punish Ankalaev for this vulnerability.
The Brazilian also needs to neutralise Ankalaev’s takedown threat. Pereira must know how to react on his back. If he can't stop every takedown, he needs a plan to either survive the round by defending his guard or regain his feet and momentum.
Magomed Ankalaev – use his wrestling skills
Ankalaev refuses to believe that a takedown is his only avenue to winning this fight. We beg to differ, though. It will be a suicide mission if he tries to go on the offensive and beat Pereira to his game.
He needs to keep his emotions in check and look for opportunities to get Pereira on the ground.
Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at Mr Fixits Tips.
