Defending champion Daniil Medvedev must be counting his lucky stars this week at the ATP Rome Masters 2024. Seeds falling left, right and centre mean that he’s an excellent chance of defending his title now. Can he see off the challenge of Tommy Paul in the round of 16 and get one step closer to doing so? Read on for our Paul vs Medvedev prediction and betting tips.
Medvedev came to Rome with an injury cloud lingering over him. The Russian had withdrawn from the Madrid Masters in the quarter-finals due to a shoulder niggle, and hopes of him defending a title for the first time in his career were not high. However, two wins later, and the No 2 seed is sitting in pole position here in Rome. He won’t be too happy with his level against Hamad Medjedovic last round, but a win is a win and the 28-year-old finds himself in the round of 16.
Paul, on the other hand, has been quietly working his way through the draw with little fuss. The American has raced past both Aslan Karatsev and Dominik Koepfer for the loss of just 13 games. Now the real challenge begins, as Paul is yet to beat Medvedev in three attempts. Can he pull off yet another upset in Rome?
We break down all there is to know about Paul vs Medvedev ahead of their round of 16 match in Rome this Tuesday.
Contents
How the Bookies View It: Medvedev Favourite, But Paul’s a Chance
Bookmaker bet365 puts Medvedev as the favourite in this clash, but not as heavily as some might have expected. The defending champion pays 4/9 to win, while Paul is at 7/4. Set betting favours a 2-0 scoreline to Medvedev, with this returning 6/5.
Recent Head-to-Head: All Medvedev
Medvedev and Paul have met three times previously, with the former winning all three of their matches. Most recently, they played in Indian Wells and Medvedev won in three. Their previous meeting was much less competitive, however, with the Russian dropping just three games. Their only clay encounter was at Roland-Garros in 2021, which Medvedev won in four.
Anything Else Catch the Eye?
Paul has been solid under pressure on his serve. Against Karatsev, he saved nine of nine break points, while in his most recent match against Koepfer, he was five from seven on break points. Medvedev can’t say the same, dropping his serve three times against Jack Draper in his first match and five times yesterday against Medjedovic.
Medvedev’s serve last match was about as fluent as me trying to order a croissant from a boulangerie in Paris (hint: not very). The Russian sprayed an incredible 10 double faults against Medjedovic, making only 57 percent of first serves and losing more second serve points than he won.
Paul vs Medvedev Betting Tips & Predictions
There’s a solid argument to be made for Paul getting the upset here, but we have too much faith in Medvedev turning things around. While his performance against Medjedovic left plenty to be desired, the 28-year-old will be much more comfortable in this match up against Paul. Expect him to move through to the quarters, but not without a few nervous moments again.
- Medvedev to win @ 4/9
- Medvedev to win 2-1 @ 5/2
Paul and Medvedev take to the Grand Stand Arena fourth on day nine, with the match played not before 4pm local time on Tuesday.
In December 2020 we sadly 
